Ok it is time to say things are out of control

Late last night I posted that we are on the verge of putting McCain on the defensive foot with a large hole to dig out of.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/working-board.html

Those of you unfortunate to have been reading this blog for awhile are all too familiar with my argument that this is a redux of the 1980 model of presidential politics.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

Well I think we can safely say that we have reached the out of control moment of the election. It appears to have happened after the combination of America's realization the the Palin pick was a political gamble and John lost, the campaign suspension was a political gamble and John lost, the financial crisis focused the voter on the real issue of the economy instead of made up issues of lipstick etc. and John lost. Then Barack Obama stepped on the stage with John McCain at last Friday's Presidential debate and John lost. You know what Barack wasn't that scary at all. Despite what many have been telling us he was calm, cool, presidential, he knew what he was talking about and seemed to be talking to main stream America. As a matter of fact McCain seemed to be kind of the scare and mean one.

This combination of events seemed to have two effects both positive for Obama. Those supporters who were leaning Obama now have confidence in their pick and a large number of those undecideds who weren't exactly sure about him have started to break for him. We first started to see this movement in the tracking polls and the national polls which is to be expected. Now we are seeing the movement in the state polls which is what matters. Looking at Realclearpolitics.com electoral college map shows Obama up 353 to 185.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

It appears the movement in the national numbers are steadying out at about 7 points. Which may not seem huge, but consider each presidential election starts out at about 45 to 45 draw with only 10 points maximum to reach. Therefore the highest either one could truly hope to attain would be 55 to 45 and we are currently looking at about a 51 to 44 race in Obama's favor. There is not much room for him to improve but can possibly see some improvement in the state numbers which is what we are experiencing right now.

The question is what to expect now. Obama has McCain so spread out it doesn't do him a whole lot of good to concentrate on just one or two states. McCain has to decide where to put his resources. One can only expect McCain and his surrogates to go negative and personal soon. If he doesn't there aren't many games changers left. The Palin Biden debate, Palin may be able to redeem herself. However, I am of the belief that a VP can't win a race for you but can certainly lose it for you. Therefore a really good performance simply gets the McCain - Palin ticket back up to par. There is little anticipation that Obama will commit any significant flub in the remaining two debates considering this is like his 30th in a year and half. Remember even if he does he won't drop below 45 mark at absolute max in essence resetting the game were it began.

I am by no means going to say this is where this is going to end up in 5 weeks. This is where we are at at this time and Obama has to be happy about it and McCain must be scratching his head at this time. So I will look for the negative 527 ads to start rolling out possibly over some subtle race issue and definitely expect to hear the Jeremiah Wright tapes some more. The Obama campaign is expecting this and will be ready to respond. McCain will want the financail bail out to be done and overwith for two reasons. There is no question it has hurt his campaign and bad. Secondly it is going to be hard for him acampaign to get overly negative in this current political environment.

It is going to be an insteresting ride over the next 5 weeks hold on tight.