Out of Control

I am more and more conviced this election is going to follow the 1980 model we have discussed previously. The undecideds are waiting to pass judgement on Obama and when they do, they may well do it in large percentages. The McCain campaign knows this. They know if they are going to win it will be by narrow margins, however, if they lose it could be a substantial loss.

Essentially the two options are a McCain squeaker or an Obama win by a decent margin. This is why we saw the bombardment of negativity earlier this summer from the McCain camp. Admittedly it was surprisingly effective. Next they threw the hail mary pass with Palin which had an initially positive impact and may continue to excite the base over the long term. However, her support among main stream Americans continues to slide and may only increase slightly after the VP debate. Although it may deteriorate as well. Since there is only one VP debate sandwiched by mulitple Pres. debates the impact will be minimal. Her impact will not vary largely from where her current slide ends.

The McCain campaign is aware that this could get out of control at any moment, over any reason. Obama's foreign trip was one example and the McCain camp handled it effectively if not tastlessly. The Democratic Convention was another spot where it could have gotten out of hand and thus the wild card pick of Palin. We are now looking at the current financial crisis. This crisis is undoubtley benefitting the Obama camp and rightfully so. The question remains is this where the contest gets out of control. We will have to wait and see.

The next point where voters will start sharpen their focus will be the debates and it will be interesting timing coming on the heels of the financial bailout.