According to realclear politics currently two tightest battle ground states are Missouri and Indiana. Interesting that they are both neighboring states to Illinois. This should be beneficial to Obama as I know they are recruiting volunteers from Illinois to work the GOTV operations in both Indiana and MO. The latest polling for Missouri is as follows.
The polling graph is courtesy of Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mo/08-mo-pres-ge-mvo.php
We are currently sitting on a 1.9 point lead well within the margin of error.
SurveyUSA 10/25-26/08 672 LV 48 48 - - - - 1 0
Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26/08 600 LV 46 48 - - - - 6 +2D
Mason-Dixon 10/22-23/08 625 LV 46 45 - - - - - +1R
Research 2000 10/20-23/08 800 LV 47 48 - - - 3 2 +1D
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 717 LV 48 48 - - - - 5 0
FOX/Rasmussen 10/19/08 1000 LV 44 49 1 2 1 - 4 +5D
Rasmussen is due out with a new poll at 6pm eastern this evening.
Looking over the exit polls for 2004 there are a few things that are encouraging for Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MO/P/00/epolls.0.html
53% of the voters were female.
Kerry won by a mere 3%. I believe 53% is a tad higher than the national average. It appears that at this time Obama is outperforming Kerry with female voters leading by as much as 10%.
First time voters in 2004 were 11%.
This number could either rise in relation to overall voters or it may rise to stay consistent as voters of all categories increase. In 2004 Kerry won first time voters by 7%. Today they are favoring Obama by 47%. Yes forty seven percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=6079714&page=1
10% African American.
In 2004 10% of the voters were African American. Which is pretty consistent with general population breakdown. However, in 2008 it would not be a surprise to see the percentage of the African American rate of voters to increase at a rate higher than the non - African American population. Kerry and Obama are polling roughly even from 2004 to 2008 at about 90 - 10 %.
83,000 Registrations.
The Obama campaign handed in 83,000 new voter registration forms directly. This number does not include any additional new registrants from third parties or from people who simply decided to register on their own. Be assured that these 83,000 voters were specifically targeted by the Obama campaign. As a result it is reasonable to expect that the number of votes is even higher than the 47% advantage that Obama has on the generic first time voter.
2500 Volunteers
Over the weekend the Obama campaign ran an election day simulation. This is the first of two. All functions were run through. The operation was ran by the states' paid staffers with 2500 volunteers. Paid staff directed the operation with volunteers facilitating the operation on leadership roles. The simulation was evaluated and critiqued and adjusted from top to bottom and will be simulated once again this weekend. On election day, it will be the third run of the GOTV operation with an exponentially larger number of volunteers out on the streets and on the phones being directed by an army of volunteers who have gone through three weeks of training.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/catch-up.html
538 = 63%
Fivethirty.com has Missouri listed as a 63% likelihood of going for Obama.
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