Working the board

I watch the polls admittedly way too much. I try not to post on them too much. CNN is reporting that the debate has had no effect on polling. My gut is telling me something different. We may not be seeing large jumps in the polling numbers. There is a consensus growing that is showing Obama up by at least 6 and hitting 51 % in a number of polls.

In addition and more importantly we are seeing these gains being consolidated in the state polling which, as we all learned in 2000 if we weren't aware of before, is what matters.



Obama
McCain O M
Diageo/Hotline 47 41 +6
Gallup 49 43 +6
Rasmussen Reports 51 45 +6
Research 2000/dKos 51 41 +10

Average: 49.50 42.50 +7

What I have been watching for is Pennsylvania to firm up and it seems to have done that over the past few days. If / once Obama can lock PA in place the chess board is definitely in his favor . He is set to go on offense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html


FOX News/Rasmussen
50 42
Obama +8
Morning Call
49 42
Obama +7
SurveyUSA
50 44
Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R)
47 46
Obama +1
CNN/Time
53 44
Obama +9
National Journal/FD
43 41
Obama +2

Once PA is locked in Obama is sitting on 249 Electoral votes needing to pick up just 21 to win. This scenario has both MN and WI currently as toss ups. WI has Obama up by 3.8 which is a higher margin than Kerry or Gore won it by. I am pretty confident that with the next release of the polling data for WI we will see their Electoral votes being placed in the Obama column. As the two most current polls have him up by 6 and 7 respectively. This will bring Obama to 259.

Eleven to go.

MN should be easier than it is right now. He is currently polling at about 2.8 to the good side. This is right in the middle of where Kerry and Gore ended up. These polls are a touch dated so we could see a big swing in the next release and it would not be a surprise. Minnesota is surprising me a little. I do not expect it to remain this close. It may be that Minnesota really likes their mavericks after all this is the state that brought us Jessy the Body as the Governor. However, if MN does fall in line we are at 269 Electoral votes.

1 Electoral vote to go.

If we are indeed at this stage Obama has several areas to hunt that extra EV that he needs and McCain has to defend. New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri are the smallest. Then we look at Virginia and North Carolina were Obama is coming on strong and actually currently leading in Virginia. These are very traditional red states that McCain should not have to defend. Last but not least we have the complete game changers. Ohio which is down to a 1 point lead for McCain and Florida which is down to .3 lead for McCain. What is expected to be a long night on Nov. 4 may over very early if either one of these states come in for Obama.

Considering McCain has to defend all this territory before he can even consider going on the offense to pick up the necessary 270 he is in a tight spot. Remember McCain is limited to matching funds of 84 mil. Obama has unlimited spending to attack the McCain territory. See the post below.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/search?q=84

Now that we are six weeks out, we past the holidays, school is back in session, and the debates are upon us let's examine where we are. McCain is confined to the 84 million dollars between now and Nov. 4. Obama is free to spend all the
money he sees fit in any manner he sees fit. This coincides with an announced increased in ad buying by the Obama campaign by something like 20%

So even though the polls may only be showing a 6 - 7 point lead the actual numbers are much worse for McCain and may well explain the hysterics his campaign are currently in.