Recap

It has been a hectic few days. I expect the next few to be just as crazy. We get to do Halloween tonight as a family. Then back to the campaign. The visit was a success. I had the very good fortune of being a part of the motorcade operation. I won't go into much detail. I was able to get a photo op with "The Senator". I met a number of very interesting people at all levels of staff.


At many times it was a very surreal experience. I felt I was in the middle of a movie scene. Surrounded by Secret Service, people constantly scrolling their black berries or a phone on the ear. My main point of contact with the campaign. Was a very dedicated staffer. Detailed oriented to a fault. Multitasking fool, problem solver, organized, focused. Once the wheels left the ground for departure one could notice that it was ok for him to relax. Oh by the way, he was 25.


This next note has absolutely nothing to do with what I heard of saw of the past 24 hours. The campaign plane was heading off the Des Moines, IA. At first I thought nothing about it. While it may make sense geographically. I wonder about it strategically, which at this point has to trump all concerns.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html

Is Iowa back in play. There are quotes out there from the McCain camp that Iowa is functionally tied. They have been spending alot of time and effort there. One can probably tell what a campaign is thinking or planning based on the candidate's schedulel. The good news it looks like alot of the time wil be spent in Florida and Missouri. Which is a good thing as they were both Repbulican states in 2004. So the biggest battle is being fought on republican territory.

Coming to Columbia,

As mentioned earlier in Catch Up http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/catch-up.html on the conference call on Saturday Barack Obama stated he was probably coming to Missouri one more time this week. I laid out a good reason why he should consider Columbia. Although in the end I suspected it would be one of the Suburban counties of St. Louis or Kansas City.

I have been watching his public schedule since then. I just came across an announcement that he is in fact coming to Columbia. Once again I think this is a great place to visit. Columbia is a strong hold for Obama here in the middle of rural Missouri. We have a large college University of Missouri with nearly 30,000 students. There are signs of many of the rural Democrats coming home and strengthening their support of Obama.

The event will be held on the Quad of the campus at 7:30pm. I don't know yet if I will be needed to volunteer for the event. I will be going in later this morning to find out what has to happen. If Obama can drive up his numbers here in Columbia and give any kind of boost to his support in the rural areas he will definitely increase the likelihood that his margins in the St. Louis and Kansas City will be enough to carry the state.

I just came back from a few hours at the office. It dawned on me shortly after I posted the above what the impact would be on the local operation.

First while we were are hurtling full speed ahead toward fine tuning and executing our Get Out the Vote operation attention needs to be split off to field the operation of hosting a major event.
This now needs to be done simultaneously. The other side of the coin is that this is bringing out a large number of volunteers to field these operations. Since this ground team started forming in late summer there is already a base of volunteers that fall into leadership roles. Now the team to leader can grow exponentially. Of course most of the people coming in and calling in are going to be interested in working the Obama event. Once they are in for that it is a lot easier to convince them to go ahead and commit to the weekend and Election day operation.

State of MO

I will try to tidy up all things Mo.

According to realclear politics currently two tightest battle ground states are Missouri and Indiana. Interesting that they are both neighboring states to Illinois. This should be beneficial to Obama as I know they are recruiting volunteers from Illinois to work the GOTV operations in both Indiana and MO. The latest polling for Missouri is as follows.

The polling graph is courtesy of Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mo/08-mo-pres-ge-mvo.php








We are currently sitting on a 1.9 point lead well within the margin of error.


SurveyUSA 10/25-26/08 672 LV 48 48 - - - - 1 0
Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26/08 600 LV 46 48 - - - - 6 +2D
Mason-Dixon 10/22-23/08 625 LV 46 45 - - - - - +1R
Research 2000 10/20-23/08 800 LV 47 48 - - - 3 2 +1D
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 717 LV 48 48 - - - - 5 0
FOX/Rasmussen 10/19/08 1000 LV 44 49 1 2 1 - 4 +5D
Rasmussen is due out with a new poll at 6pm eastern this evening.


Looking over the exit polls for 2004 there are a few things that are encouraging for Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MO/P/00/epolls.0.html

53% of the voters were female.

Kerry won by a mere 3%. I believe 53% is a tad higher than the national average. It appears that at this time Obama is outperforming Kerry with female voters leading by as much as 10%.

First time voters in 2004 were 11%.

This number could either rise in relation to overall voters or it may rise to stay consistent as voters of all categories increase. In 2004 Kerry won first time voters by 7%. Today they are favoring Obama by 47%. Yes forty seven percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=6079714&page=1



10% African American.
In 2004 10% of the voters were African American. Which is pretty consistent with general population breakdown. However, in 2008 it would not be a surprise to see the percentage of the African American rate of voters to increase at a rate higher than the non - African American population. Kerry and Obama are polling roughly even from 2004 to 2008 at about 90 - 10 %.

83,000 Registrations.

The Obama campaign handed in 83,000 new voter registration forms directly. This number does not include any additional new registrants from third parties or from people who simply decided to register on their own. Be assured that these 83,000 voters were specifically targeted by the Obama campaign. As a result it is reasonable to expect that the number of votes is even higher than the 47% advantage that Obama has on the generic first time voter.

2500 Volunteers

Over the weekend the Obama campaign ran an election day simulation. This is the first of two. All functions were run through. The operation was ran by the states' paid staffers with 2500 volunteers. Paid staff directed the operation with volunteers facilitating the operation on leadership roles. The simulation was evaluated and critiqued and adjusted from top to bottom and will be simulated once again this weekend. On election day, it will be the third run of the GOTV operation with an exponentially larger number of volunteers out on the streets and on the phones being directed by an army of volunteers who have gone through three weeks of training.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/catch-up.html

538 = 63%

Fivethirty.com has Missouri listed as a 63% likelihood of going for Obama.

Closing Argument

I mentioned a few days ago that McFailin had teed up the ball for Obama to launch his closing argument. I compared the round of his most recent speeches to his 2004 }DNC keynote address.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/full-circle.html


Now it seems the pros are catching up. Ben Smith over at Politico reports that Obama will unveil his closing argument in a speech tomorrow.

After a summer of fairly direct partisanship, Obama's fall stump speech has edged back toward his 2004 convention speech, with a passage about how there's no red and blue America. It will be interesting to see how much of that there is in the final week

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Closing_tomorrow.html?showall
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/obama_to_deliver_closing_argum.php

Catch up

Seems my time is getting more and more limited as we creep toward election day. Every time I think I am going to take a day away from the campaign office my wife pushes me back to the office. I was there till 12:30 last night. Returned at 8:00 this morning and worked till 5:40. Got to take little man in for the first few hours.

We went through a "dry run" of election day. It was very effective on many levels. It prepared us for the controlled chaos of election day. What I truly was impressed with was the debriefing process that resultled from the dry run. Everyone was quizzed about how to make the highly thoughtout process could be improved. What was its strengths and weaknesses. What worked and what needed to be addressed. I would venture to guess there were 6 paid staffers involved in this process, supplemented by almost a dozen volunteer team leaders. Well over a hundred and fifty volunteers partaking in phone calling, canvassing, volunteer support.

Just before the completion of the excercise a number of the volunteers were invited to attend a conference call regarding the ground operation. The conference call was joined by Barack Obama and he provided words of encouragement, an assessment of the race, a reminder of the importance of the work that lay ahead. The major gist was that we all have worked so hard to put us where we are at that we cannot afford to let it be for naught. This is not the time to let up. This is the time to redouble our efforts. He once again thanked us.

I am planning on taking the day for my family tomorrow. However, my wife may have something about that. I guess I will worry about all that after the election.

Oh yeah he mentioned that he would probably be in Missouri one more time this week before the election. Which tells me they are searious about winning Missouri. Which is interesting because Obama truly can win the EV majority without MO. In last weeks training one thing that was made very clear and makes total sense was that the most important asset a campaign posseses is the candidates time. Nothing is more thoroughly analyzed than how to best invest the canidate themselves. It is great that he will be heading this week.

I would love for him to come to central Missouri. It would a little sense considering he has enerized both the east and west coast of the state with his visits last week to St. Louis and Kansas City. The southwest is very heavily republican. The next largest population center is the Columbia Boone County area. He has a large base of support in the immediate Columbia area. Also I sense he is gaining in the more rural areas around and northeast of Columbia.

However, with such a limited amount of time, it might make the most sense to attack the surrounding suburban counties around KC or St. Louis.

Dress Rehearsel

This is my first time of living in a battleground state, I find it interesting. The bombardment is full swing. Mailers, robocalls, tv ads. I sense people are hitting maximum capacity. I also sense that maybe the only effective approach left at this time is in fact canvassing. If there are undecideds out there. Which is just completely unfathomable to me. I am not judging them it's just that my brain is wired in a manner that I could not know. If there are undecideds out there I think about the only that will cut through the clutter is a warm smile and a friendly face. It is probably going to take a familiar accent and a similiar disposition to allow ones guard down enough to open up about their feelings on the election.

We are, I am sure all around the state and the country, planning a large scale canvassing operation this weekend. This will in preparation of election day GOTV as well as identifying supporters and persuading the persuadable. This is essentially a dress rehearsel of the election day GOTV operation. This will done this weekend and again next weekend. By election day it will be our third run at the operation. I will assist in running the phone bank operation for the county as well as falling back on my old dispatcher experience and being the driver dispatch for election day. This will be a lot of work, but it will be fun. I have always enjoyed working the polls as I have mentioned previously and I expect this to be more of the same.

Full Circle

I have said many times that I was convinced that I wanted Barack Obama to be our President when I heard him delivery his keynote address at the 2004 DNC. Four years later as he is on the verge making this a reality. The McCain - Palin ticket has teed up the ball for Obama to make his closing argument which is the same as his opening argument. There is no real America, no Pro America. There are no Red States, there are no Blue States. There is the United States of America.







Every since the dingbats on the right have started their attempt to divide Virginia into real and fake Virginia, establish the Pro America and anti America parts of the country, and discern who are the pro America and the anti America congress people. I have been waiting for Barack to answer them as has been so eloquently. As we wind into the final 10 days or so of this election I expect to hear his closing argument more and more forcefully. It is a point that is valid, appreciated, and needed even more at this time than it was 4 years ago.

Got some Ground Game?

And on that note I will get up off my @$$ and go into the campaign office and get some work done.

The most incompetent campaign ever?

RNC Shells out $150,000.00 for Palin wardrobe
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html

Phone bank with a Musical Legend

Tonight is your chance to phonebank with a musical legend. Carole King will be in the Columbia, MO campaign office to phone bank with volunteers as we have 14 days left to change the world.

I was pleased to hear the Ms. King was not only visiting Columbia. She had already been a number of smaller field offices during the day including Louisiana, Mo and Hannibal, MO. She had a full days schedule for today as well. She spoke to many issues of being a Democrat in a rural area as she has lived in rural Idaho for 30 years. Thank you Ms. King.

McCain visits Columbia draws crowd of...

http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/10/20/mccain-land-columbia-regional-airport/

Sorry that's the wrong picture. McCain draws crowd of 15 at Columbia, MO.

This was posted as a joke. However, it is very telling. This dovetails into the anecdotal stories of the two campaigns ground games. As an example about two weeks ago I got a call from the Obama campaign saying there was going to be speaker in town that afternoon regarding Obama's energy policy. I was unable to attend, my wife went in my place. So with two hours notice the campaign put together an audience of 10 people to see the Obama's National advisor on energy policy. If you walk into the Obama campaign office right now at 9:43 am on a Tuesday you are going to find no less 10 people in their working. I can assure if Obama or Biden or Michelle Obama for that matter where to coming to town the organization would be all over it and their would be a large enthusiastic crowd there to greet them.

If this is the difference in ground games here in the heart of a battleground state, then the Obama camp has an advantage that is difficult to quantify. Mind you Columbia, may be a University town but it is in heart of the bible belt of Missouri. It is surrounded by the kind of towns that the McCain camp would classify as real and pro America. Plus surely there are some enthusiastic College Republicans that could have found some time to meet their leader.

A little video tribute to the Presidential visits to Middle America.

Right to Vote

As I mentioned earlier I spent a great part of the day on Saturday in GOTV training for the Obama campaign. I was impressed on many levels. The detailed approach, the organization, the discipline, the data centric approach, the big picture, the empowerment aspect. I have nothing to compare this campaign to. I have been assured by others that have previous experience the operation dwarfs by comparison any other GOTV operation that has been seen.

For a little background, even though I have been a political junkie as long as I can remember I didn't really get involved until 2004. I participated in a very limited capacity in a House race in Washington state. More importantly I worked as a poll worker for the first time. 2004 was coming off the heels of the debacle that was the 2000 Presidential election and the passing of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA). I decided to be a part of the process to help ensure the validity of the process even if it was in my own little way.

It was a truly great experience for me on many levels. It was the 2004 Primary in Washington State which for the first time in 50 years voters could not vote on an open party ballot for the primary. There were a couple of local issues that drove turnout for the election and as a result it was a busy day with a great turnout.

I had the good fortune of being the polling place supervisor of a local polling place working with 6 or 7 other workers. As the supervisor I was responsible for keeping things running as smoothly as possible and dealing with any issues or complications. The state of Washington has an open approach to Provisional balloting. The state tries hard to ensure everyone that attempts to vote gets to vote and tries hard to ensure every legitimate vote is counted. I will give a shout out to the Secretary of State Sam Reed he is a Republican that seems to truly work for the best interest of Washington voters. This has caused himself some trouble with the state Republican party but he seems to have held true and strong. As a result of the conditions, I worked with several voters that day that had various issues with their registration. We worked to resolve all the issues we could and when we couldn't we went through the provisional ballot process. I felt very good about my days efforts of facilitating democracy and assisting people many of which hadn't voted in a long time if at all to exercise their right and responsibility to vote.

Upon moving to Missouri I took up the cause once again and I have now worked the primary election this spring and would be working the general if not for my work with the campaign. I have been a little disappointed in that, the state of Missouri takes a slightly more closed approach to provisional balloting. In 2004 the nationwide average of accepted provisional ballots was 68 %. In Boone county I have been informed the range was about 20 % on the high side. This is 20 % of a much lower base number as their had been limited training on Provisional balloting and limited use of the ballot as a last choice and at times the option not even being granted to voters.

All of this background brings me back to my point regarding the Obama campaign's efforts in protecting voters right to vote. In the training their were aspects that I am simply impressed with. First in battleground states the Obama camp has had their legal team in place since July. The have been working hand in hand the Secretary of State's and all local county clerks to ensure that all elections are being held in accordance to the law. Some of the things they have been working on seem simplistic but have a real impact on election day. Some issues are ensuring that their are enough polling locations to serve the expected turnout. Making sure that there are sufficient ballots and personnel working the locations. You don't have to suggest a large conspiracy to see how the placement of the legal teams will help the practice of democracy. They are there to make sure that of all the things these very busy people have to do that nothing gets forgotten or miscalculated. There have been no threats of lawsuits by the Obama team that I am aware and they have taken a very accommodating approach to the process. Their mere presence will make sure that all county clerks have all the i's dotted and t's crossed.
This is the most proactive voter protection team any campaign has assembled.

Secondly which may be more amazing. It has always been customary for either political parties or other interested parties to have poll observers at polling places. In primaries these poll observers often monitor which voter request which ballot. It is kind of creepy. The logic is that primaries are party run elections and therefore they have the right to monitor such information. In general elections the observers usually are marking off voters they are expecting to vote and then later in the day attempt to go round up get those supporters who haven't voted yet to get them out to the polls.

The genius of the Obama team is to place legal people in the seat of the poll observer. As a result their is already a legal person observing any voter challenges any election day mishaps, and inconsistencies. This person will still serve the purpose of monitoring which supporters have voted allowing for the tracking of who has yet to vote so they can be rounded up. In addition they will be a legal representative in place who in all reality will know the election law better then the polling place supervisor.

I have come across an article suggesting the Obama legal in place in Florida is already 5000 strong. This is just one more example of how an Obama administration operates. Always taking the long view, looking at the horizon, anticipating hiccups and solving before they get to be an issue. This is an obvious difference between the Obama and McCain camps, one that is so important in this time of difficulty we are in.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.hk4HvCkpiE&refer=home

In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court.

Why, Why, Why? We worship an awesome God in the Blue States

This is why I do what I am doing for this campaign. This is the leader that I want my son to grow up under.

Secretary of Rationale

We pretty much knew the Powell endorsement was coming. We didn't know how far he would go and on what basis. More importantly we didn't know what kind of effect it would have. I was thrilled to see that Powell spoke directly to Obama's character, readiness, leadership, and vision. I was even more thrilled to hear him call out the McCain - Palin camp and thier divisive attacks. I have mentioned already that I am concerned that the nature of the campaign is driving many of the worst instincts in many people. It is not just the fanatics showing up at the rallies. We had an actual US Rep from MN on Hardball recently suggesting that thier are some Pro American and some Anti American members of Congress.

Whomever wins this election is going to be facing an extremely difficult challenge in restoring order into the economy, our foreign relations, and our domestic relations. The McCain camp is only worsening those prospects in hopes of scaring his way to victory. He'll worry about how he will govern afterword. Obama has been leading in a manner that will be inviting and welcoming to all Americans to join in the forming the solutions we are going to need. I am pleased that Powell spoke directly to these differences on Meet the Press. In addition to his great appearance on Meet the Press he followed up with a post Meet the Press Q & A.

100,000 strong and counting Make that 175,000

I have been rather busy over the past few days and not had much time to post. I spent all day today in GOTV training. This is going to be a fun and very busy day.
While I was in training in Columbia, MO Barack gathered a little rally in St. Louis, MO.

Reports are 100,000 people attended in St. Louis. Reports from Kansas City are at 75,000 people.





Barack Obama picks up endorsement from Kansas City Star.
http://www.kansascity.com/endorsements/story/845717.html

And the St. Louis Post Dispatch
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/editorialcommentary/story/B1F99407E81F92DB862574DF00716259?OpenDocument

And the Columbia Daily Tribune
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Oct/20081019Comm001.asp

The Key to victory in Missouri according to St. Louis Post Dispatch.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/C87484461606F1A3862574E600114F7A?OpenDocument

Side by Side Comparison

We are going to pick one of these two men to be our next president.

Joe the #%^#$%^ Plummer

There is a lot of talk about joe today. This is just another way the modern world works differently than a just 8 - 10 years ago. The following link is what is known about Joe the Plummer.


http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/mccains-lame-october-surprise.html

Obama wins

McCain had a chance to keep it close but I think he blew it.

One point from my wife.
For a 3 million dollar "overhead projector" that must be one helluva planetarium and she just has to go.

Debate blog

Hate to say I think McCain did pretty well on the tax issue. Not that I agree but he was holding his own. The trendlines were fairly positive for both. He kept Obama on the defensive a little but Obama kept on message 95% will get tax cut.


When watching the debates I am always amazed by the divergence from the male and female respondents on the CNN tracking.

Just finished watching the Ayers Acorn associations round. I have to say Obama won this round. It went along way to take the sting out of the smears. The dials dropped hard when McCain attempted to bring it back up it.

Why is it that it appears men are more fooled by the Palin pick than most women?


At this point McCain has lost any advantage he won during the tax round of this debate.

Thank goodness that we didn't have 10 of these. I think I can answer both candidates for them.

Obama can mock McCain with his laugh so easily.

Zero did that just kill McCain. What a facial. And to think I started out thinking McCain was going to outperform. Not so much.

Ok this is childish. But McCain looks like a character off the old tv show "V".

Here comes the Abortion extremist attack comes. We knew it was coming. Glad it did. It gives Obama a chance to address it head on.

By the way does McCain know he is on tv?

Debate Preview take III

I have already suggested that this debate would be viewed by fewer than the last and possibly even the first Friday night debate.

I think there are fewer people who are persuadable on this debate. The narrative has already been set. Most people will take this set narrative into watching the debate. Mostly that Obama is calm, cool, steady, intelligent and in touch with people. McCain is uncomfortable with people, Obama, and himself, he is negative, dismissive.

McCain has boxed himself in regarding the Ayers associations et al. If he ignores the issue he is going to get called out on it. If he brings up he has a couple of problems. First people that are not interested in it, simply are not interested in it and will be put off by it. Secondly, If he brings it up it gives Obama a national audience to debunk the whole thing.

The problem is that if Obama is given 2 - 5 minutes to explain it the whole story unravels. This story works much more negatively as innuendo, just under the surface. What does he have to hide, who / what is he. If this is discussed above board the clandestine nature is peeled away. Notice how they rolled this line of attack out. We first had a uniformed officer mention his middle name Hussein after it had been off the table for months for McCain. Then we had Palin alluding to paling around with terrorist. OOOOO Hussein - terrorist very scary kind of sounds evil. Oh wait some of Obama's donations may have been funneled in by unkown people over seas. One puts all the little pieces of innuendo together and you can end up with voters like we have seen over the past couple of weeks at the McCain - Palin mobs I mean rallies.

McCain doesn't want any real sun light put on this so he doesn't really want to spend much time on it at the debate. But if he doesn't address he is going to be called a hypocrite and ridiculed. If I remember correctly Bush never had to touch the Swiftboating issues in his debates with Kerry.

Possibly more interesting is the fact that they will be sitting relatively close to each other in tonight's format. I recall a post I read a few weeks back about this type of setting. The point of the story is that the McCain camp had hired someone for debate prep who had reviewed all of McCain's debates of late and had one major piece of advice for him, stand up. His assessment was that McCain was uncomfortable in a sitting side by side situation and allowed for people to get the edge on him. I have looked for the article but haven't been able to find it back, I'll keep looking.

The fact the Dow dropped another 700 points today makes this discussion seem a little surreal to the people tuning in to see what either of these guys will do to right the ship.

I also have a feeling that we will see Obama be fairly aggressive early in the debate. This might seem odd considering that everything is currently going in his favor. However, I think it has been Obama's game plan for the last two debates to get under McCain's skin early. We all know that McCain doesn't like or respect Obama and doesn't feel he has earned the level of respect that John McCain has earned. McCain can't stand to be questioned or criticized by a lesser person than himself.(wonder if that is the result of a military upbringing and career?) So expect Obama to be critical upfront but of course with a smile. He has become pretty good at this tactic of pointing out the criticism without coming across too harsh.

Man to Man

This could be why people feel that Barack Obama connects with them so well.

Plus it is amazing to find out that tax policy is actually more complex than simple soundbites and
catch phrases. It is also an example of disagreeing without being disagreeable.

Like a great big chess game

News is that the Obama camp is moving staff from MI to IN.


http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/obama_moving_field_staff_from.php

One of the benefits of the structure the Obama camps have put in place is that the neighborhood team leaders will still be able to carry on with limited direction from paid field organizers. That being the case combined with McCain conceding the state this makes for an excellent move. Bringing the field organizers down combined with the border help they will be getting from neighboring Illinois is going to put a ton of pressure on McCain in Indiana. A state he shouldn't have had to worry about.

The great Carnac says

A couple of out on the limbs predictions. America has seen enough over the past few weeks. T0morrow's debate will be viewed by fewer people than the 2nd debate and possibly fewer people than the first debate. I expect that the polls will probably tighten by a few points between now and the election day. But I do not expect any major shift in polling between now and nov. 4. I think for the most part American has seen enough to make their decision.

UPDATED: The first confirmation of the great carnac is in. Last nights debate ratings fell smack dab in the middle of the first @ 35 mill. and the second 42 mill. Last nights debate came in at 38 mill.

Taxes Part III

http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

The way this campaign continues to impress

http://gigaom.com/2008/10/13/confirmed-obama-is-campaigning-on-xbox-360/

The Obama camp has confirmed that they have purchased billboard ads on the Xbox 360 online game Burnout Paradise and Madden Football.

Hard Work Paying off....

After the successful day detailed Here

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/day-by-day-door-by-door.html

I turned around on Sunday with a little push from my wife.

Ended up canvassing one of the nicer neighborhoods in all of Columbia. We had some surprisingly good luck. I picked up a volunteer from the office. Mansuir, who is a foreign exchange student from Montenegro. He is here for one year on a scholarship studying Political Science. Needless to say he is ineligible to vote. However after attending the Joe Biden event down in Jefferson city this week he felt inspired to get involved. He was asked by one of his friends from the University why he would do such a thing when he can't even vote. His answer was that the world is indeed interconnected and what happens here in America has a very real effect upon his home of Montenegro. He simply had to cite the current financial crisis to make his point.

I am sure glad he decided to join in. I was prepared to canvass the area myself. This area as stated is a very nice development. The lots are sprawling. It is a new development, so there is limited information on the voters. As a result there was much walking between houses. Thankfully it is a very pretty neighborhood set up on a hill in the southwest part of Columbia and many of the houses are beautiful. The first person I spoke to stated he was a conservative and he wasn't sure about Obama. He did limit his concerns simply to tax policy. In the next breath he stated he couldn't vote for McCain after the last 8 years of Bush and Co. So even though I disagreed with him on his taxes and socialism comment regarding Obama, I let it go. I marked him as leaning Obama. I asked him to verify I was correct in my assessment. Mistakenly I said Democrat instead of Obama. He corrected me "leaning Obama" yes. "No way leaning Democrat". More interestingly he doubled back as I left and asked me how it was going in this particular neighborhood. Told him he was my first house I could tell him more in an hour. The very next house I was informed that both the husband and wife would be supporting Obama.

After about 2 1/2 hours we had walked the last block and rang the last door bell. We had knocked on 57 doors talked to 27 voters. We were able to ID 25 voters on our list. Obama was leading 13 to 12. I felt this was pretty good considering the neighborhood and the tax bracket he had just walked. Usually when I am canvassing and some one brings up their concerns regarding Obama's tax policy I can pretty confidently state it wouldn't affect them. This weekend I am not sure that is the case. The other thing of notice was in a few of the houses the whole family would come to the or hang around the door as I asked for the specific voter. When I woult tell them that I was a volunteer for the Obama campaign the kids would exclaim thier preference for Obama and wanted to talk about Obama. In thoses cases I was informed the whole house was for Obama. On the other hand even the McCain people were for the most part restrained and kind. I even had one twenty year old male apologize after stating he was supporting McCain. Of course I was sorry for him too. I kept that to my self.

So after all that work this weekend the following Survey USA poll came as very pleasant surprise.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=114e8715-9896-484e-8403-33855cf31617

Obama 51%
McCain 43%

Fox /Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_12_2008

Obama 50%
McCain 47%


PPP (D)
hhttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_1014132.pdfttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_1014132.pdf

Obama 48%
McCain 46%

Shall we play a game?

The little guy just had an idea. He thinks Barack Obama should play John McCain a game of chess to see who should be the next President. Hmmm. I think I would like our chances.

Day by Day, Door by Door

The little guy and I went into the office this Saturday am. The paid staff are together in a central location receiving training for the final GOTV (get out the vote) push. That left us volunteers working with volunteers. We have been organizing a big push for canvassing this weekend. Their were two full time volunteers there and three of us Neighborhood Team Leaders organizing the canvas of all Boone county. In addition we were operating a phone bank, stuffing envelopes, and entering data.

I have to say thank you to the little guy I had promised to be there for 3 hours as I didn't know how long he would be able to control himself. We walked in at 8:45 and walked out at 3:00. He started off by making Obama buttons for all the volunteers . You can see his "Catholics for Obama" button on his shirt. Of course he eventually ended up watching Scooby Doo.



The turn out was respectable. We have a lot of doors to knock, voters to reach, and phones to call. It is very pleasing to see someone walk in the door and say I want to help. I was able to stay for the firsts two waves. The first wave being somewhat larger then the second wave.

Not surprising considering the MU football team is hosting Oklahoma St. tonight. I believe I saw more cars parked for tailgating then people can fit in the stadium. When I drove by at 8:30 there were a large number of cars already parked and tents set up.

We were a little slow getting the first wave out the door, but when we did we had about 10 teams hitting the street. The first group starting tricking back in at about 1:45. We have three weeks to turn Missouri blue and change the world.

Just think this scene was been recreated in 39 other offices around MO and hundreds if not a thousand offices across the country. I would venture to guess this office is medium in size comparatively.




The little guy had so much fun he wanted to know if we could come back tomorrow. I am not certain if his motivation is to change the world or to watch more Scooby Doo movies.

A map of the Missouri and surrounding campaign offices is below.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mooffices

What He Said!

I have always had a great deal of respect for David Gergen. I appreciate his sentiments completely. I have been fealing this for the last couple of days as a couple of the post suggest. (Scapegoat + Angry Mob =)




CNN contributor David Gergen said that the negative tone of these rallies are "incendiary" and could lead to violence.

"There is this free floating sort of whipping around anger that could really lead to some violence. I think we're not far from that," he told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Thursday. "I really worry when we get people -- when you get the kind of rhetoric that you're getting at these rallies now. I think it's really imperative that the candidates try to calm people down."

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/this-video-fits-right-in-with-article.html

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/this-is-more-than-game.html

Scapegoat
Dictionary.com1. a person or group made to bear the blame for others or to suffer in their place.




We are starting to see good people who are conservative such as Gergren speak out and thank godoness. Add to this list the former GOP Governor of Michigan.



US Rep Roy Lahood - (R) IL
http://cbs2chicago.com/local/ray.lahood.palin.2.837484.html

LaHood supports the McCain ticket, but doesn't like what he sees at some of the McCain-Palin rallies: When Barack Obama's name has been mentioned by Sarah Palin, there are shouts of "terrorist," and LaHood says Palin should put a stop to it. "Look it," LaHood said. "This doesn't befit the office that she's running for. And frankly, people don't like it." LaHood says it could backfire on the Republican ticket. He says the names that Obama is being called, "Certainly don't reflect the character of the man."

Former GOP Governor of Michigan
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/10/former_governor_milliken_backs.html

He is not the McCain I endorsed," said Milliken, reached at his Traverse City
home Thursday. "He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the
question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather
disappointing to me. "I'm disappointed in the tenor and the personal attacks
on the part of the McCain campaign, when he ought to be talking about the
issues." Milliken, a lifelong Republican, is among some past leaders from the
party's moderate wing voicing reservations

US Senator Norm Coleman (R) MN
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/10/as_mccain_goes_negative_a_gop.html#more

Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to work on suspending his own negative ads.

"Today," he said, "people need hope and a more positive campaign is a start."

Stories from Missouri

Thanks to Gdweasel for the following article. It discusses the people of Missouri and their attitudes about this Presidential Election and Obama.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1848469,00.html

Here is a story over at 538 regarding the ground game in Missouri

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

This is of course the Time article from the other days post re: Missouri's ground operation

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html

The home page for the Missouri campaign for Change

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mohome

Pollster.com MO page
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mo/

St. Louis Post Dispatch endorsement for General Election
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/the-platform/campaign-2008/2008/10/sunday-editorial-barack-obama-for-president/

we consider questions of character, life experience and intellect, as well as specific policy and issue positions. Each member of the editorial board weighs in.
On all counts, the consensus was clear: Barack Obama of Illinois should be the next president of the United States.

John McCain has served his country well, but in the end, he may have wanted the presidency a little too much, so much that he has sacrificed some of the principles that made him a heroic figure in war and in peace. In every way possible, he has earned the right to retire.

(Obama) his countrymen are weighing his talents, his values and his beliefs,
judging him not by the color of his skin, but the content of his character.

That says something profound and good — about him as a candidate and
about us as a nation.

Many of these sentiments were expressed in my previous post.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/08/mccain-00-vs-mccain-08.html posted on Sunday, August 17, 2008

I have frequently thought that McCain could be a principled compromise as a presidentail candidate even considering some of the truly conservative positions he has clung to. We must remember though that he lost the primary in 2000 and badly. It seems he isn't as slow learner as we thought. He has showed an amazing ability to bend truly hardened principles for political expedience and hide behind his built up reputation of honor while throwing bombs radomly at Obama. The spotlight needs to turn back to who is John McCain and what does he stand for.

I have been meaning to compile a more organized and thorough posting regarding Missouri's place in this election and the Obama ground game. Until I do use the above as an insight into the daily grind of trying to change the world.

Judy Baker pulls a 4 point lead in latest MO-9 US Rep race.
http://dccc.org/blog/archives/mo_09_poll_shows_baker_with_4_point_lead_over_luetkemeyer/

I have said before that I expect Baker to be helped by Obama at the top of the ticket. We have discussed at length the ground game Obama is building in MO. This is a case where trickle down will benefit Baker. It won't hurt that she is a woman when people work their way down the ballot.

This would be sad if it wasn't so dangerous

This would be sad if it weren't so dangerous.

Can you say "Scapegoat!"

UPDATED: II

McClatchy gets in on the job of debunking the racist scapegoating on the financial crisis.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53802.html

UPDATED: I have been directed to the following article in Slate that addresses the rediculousness of the economic arguments laid out below. It is not meant to address the race baiting and the scapegoating of this woman's column.

http://www.slate.com/id/2201641

Well, now that we know the cause of the total collapse of our economy what should we do about it. Hmmmm.

I learned everything I needed to know by reading the "Social engineering derailed our economy" by Diana West in my local paper The Columbia Daily Tribune. Which I promptly cancelled. I love reading the paper, always have. I will be finding a new paper to read.

...race-based social engineering virtually created the sub-prime mortgage
industry that has transformed the U.S. economy into The Titanic

race-based goals .....help create the sub-prime mortgage industry, which,
having imploded, triggered the current economic crisis

junked all bottom-line, non-racial markers of mortgage eligibility...steady
employment and clean credit to the all-important down payment,

This paved the way for increasingly unconventional "subprime" loans for
all (including rubber-check-writing deadbeats, speculators and
novices-in-over-their-heads of all races)

(all races. wink wink)

affirmative action lending" practices were foisted on the banking industry at
the national level, particularly during the presidencies of Carter, Clinton and,
yes, George W. Bush

Having read this column I was infuriated. The rest of it isn't much better. It is just an assinine attack on Barack Obama. You know William Ayers etc. It is one thing to attempt to smear Obama when your team is losing and losing badly. I expect to have conservative voices in local newspapers. I actually read a number of them and have a great deal of respect for some of them.

But to lay the cause of the current financial collapse on what.... poor black people. You have got to be freakin kidding me. As I said before I immediately called the Columbia Daily Tribune at (573) 815-1700 to cancel my subscription. I then called the trib talk number (573) 815-1776 to let the editorial section know of my cancellation.

My next action was to go to the web and look up the following

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/scapegoat%20

Scapegoat

Dictionary.com
1. a person or group made to bear the blame for others or to suffer in their place.

I found the definition quite interesting in light of the article.

After that I located Media Matters page listing all the papers that are publishing this trash.

http://mediamatters.org/reports/oped/columnist/81

"out of touch"

This is a not so subtle message the Obama camp has been pushing.

McCain has been pushing for townhall debates all summer. John McCain felt he could work the room. Problem is he has been only participating in friendly events. McCain was tone deaf to this. He was repeadtedly telling bad jokes that fell flat. It tells you that he is not accustomed to a room that doesn't automatically respond positively. Attacking the moderator on the secretary of treasurey question. Not to mention the "that one" comment and dismissing the one questioners intelligence regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"That One"

Another point that I made a mental note of was when McCain made the assumption that the questioner probably didn't know what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was. How presumptious.


UPDATED: The young man is named Oliver Clark. It has taken a couple of days but the point regarding McCain's insulting the questioner has made it to the surface a quick Q & A with this gentleman can be found over at First Read at MSNBC.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/09/1523335.aspx

6. How did I feel about Sen. Obama’s response?
I felt Sen. Obama addressed the issue more directly then Sen. McCain did. Obama actually stated that the bailout package was going to help Americans buy homes and stay in their homes.

7. How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating “You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this.”
Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis. In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Initial reaction

First two focus groups.

CNN Obama 12 - 10
MSNBC Obama 60 - 40

CBS Obama 39 - 27 updated to 40 - 26

CNN poll Obama 54 - 30


Media Curve
Independants Obama 52 - 34

More interesting Dems Obama Won 84%
Repubs McCain Won only 68%

Did John King of CNN just say the election is over?

Just won the election

Dare I say that Obama just won the election on the first foreign affairs question of this debate.

First Impression

At the half way mark I am going to go out on a limb and say McCain did not win. Definately nothing to change the game.

Thoughts going into the debate

John McCain has been making a big deal all summer about Obama not agreeing to his townhall requests. Now their is already pressure for McCain to provide a game changer and he has pre-anounced he is going to be going negative.

Even though this is not a debate on Foreign Policy which is supposed to be his home turf the expectations seem to be raising by the minute for McCain. Also it is suggested that Obama is not a great debater. Maybe true. However, he did win the Democratic primary which included quite a few debates. Secondly, it is official he pretty handily won the first debate. Thirdly, I have been in a room with him before just briefly and he is better in close quarters that most give him credit for. He may not be Bill Clinton working a room, but he is genuine and comforting which in light of the current economic crisis will a big positive.

Then on an odd note. I remember back to more than a year ago watching Chris Mathews when he brought up an interesting point. He was interested in the possible visuals of a McCain - Obama debate physically seeing them interact on the stage. He surmised that Obama's stature, grace and youthfulness would be a very strong asset for him. I don't know what to make of that. It will be something I am looking to.

See you after the debate.

What is different this time around?

I have been rattling an idea for a post around in my head for about a week now. I have been trying to figure out what was different now than 4 and 8 years ago. I sensed the McCain campaign was very frustrated by the fact they were playing the just like Bush had done in 2000 and 2004 but it wasn't working. Some of the thoughts I would contemplate were the seariousness of the times. Although in 2004 the Iraq war was on the center of our minds and still we (as a country) fell for the swift boating of an American war hero. Is it possible that the country is tired of it? How about the press are they handling it differently? I am not sure. Has the Obama camp been more effective in handling this type of politics?

I really hadn't decided on a reason but I was pretty certain something was different time around. The previous mo was the Bush camp or surrogate would throw someting out. The media would basically report the charge, not the validity of the charge. The cable news outlets would repeat it adinfinitum and it would seep into the American conscience.

It doesn't appear to be working so well for McCain.

I have come across a couple of post that attempts to dissect this question.

This piece is running over at the New York mag.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/51016/index1.html

The gist of his argument is something I felt intuitively. The Sarah Palin picked was viewed sceptically enough on its own. When it was combined with the "suspension" it reinforced voters that yes in fact the pick was all about politically gimmickry. Once they were convinced Palin was a political gimmick they were certain the "suspension" nothing more than a political gimmick.
This combination truly cuts the "Country First" theme they had been hammering home.

Greg Sargent has a stab at it over at TPM.com

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/why_did_mccain_lose_his_maveri.php

Ground Offensive

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html

Obama's Missouri plan also mirrors his national strategy, McCaskill says. "It's a metaphor for the way Obama sees his job, governing from the bottom up," she says. Renting Main Street storefronts in small-town Missouri and staffing them with paid workers is a way of proving that he can reach out to all walks of
American life

This is a great article. It lifts the sheet up and gives a little look into what is happening. It might not get much coverage and it is not nearly as sexy as a big ad campaign. One not noted which is very important. This field organization is forming a community of people who care about the country, the childrens, their friends, their neighbors and their communities. People are dedicating big parts of their lives in this and they are indeed heavily invested in this campaign. Some times it is long tedious work and some times the payoff is much delayed. But everyone will tell that it is worth when we wake up on Nov. 5th and have changed the world.

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"

A refresher course on the Keathing 5


Yeah but is it true? Check out what CNN had to say.

Something we all can be thankful for

I was recently challenged to say something nice about John McCain.

That is not hard to do. It has been repeated often by many people Democrats, Independants, and Republican.. We all appreciate the service John McCain has provided for this country. We anguish at thought of the experience he endured as a POW. While I am at it, it would be inappropriate not to thank the othe 724 POW's of the Vietnam war, the 7,140 POW's of the Korean war, 130,000 POW's of WWII of which my wife's uncle was one, and the 4,120 POW's of WWI.

As of 2004 we had 32,550 living POW's and we appreciate each and everyone of them. This is something we all can agree on regardless of our political philosophy. We can not know the experience they endured and we are thankful to all 142,246 POW's and their families.

Poor John

Unfortunately for John issues keep getting in the way of his campaign. What do you think people will be talking about tomorrow? Sarah Palin's attempt to bring racism back into the election or the current economic and market conditions.

View the full .DJIA chart at Wikinvest

Let the offensive begin

We have already established that McCain is in a corner and is coming out swinging with everything he can muster.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/ok-we-have-established-game-is-getting.html

He has had Palin out this weekend talking about "palling around with terrorist". I tend to think her credibility is sufficiently tarnised. Which will diminish the effectiveness of the attacks from her. Make no mistake though, the Obama campaign knew this was coming the only question really was when. Recent polling has determined the time is now.

The Obama camp is not waiting to react defensively. They have set up
the following website to bring to attention McCain's association with Charles Keating. Keatingeconomics.com They have authorized their surrogates to refer the Keating 5 in response to any Ayers attacks.

http://keatingeconomics.com/



The Obama camp will be releasing on the above website a 13 minute web video relating John McCain's association with Charles Keating noon eastern on Monday, October 6. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

My gut reaction right now is Obama will be able to keep the attack disciplined and is expecting McCain to overreach and overreact.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/we-knew-what-to-expect-next-from-mccain.html

Highlights from the Roots n' Blues n' BBQ Festival

http://www.ruthiefoster.com/

http://www.garyclarkjr.com/

http://www.tabbenoit.com/


There is more to come.

Not exactly Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy

The cubs keep losing so I have to try and keep my spirits up somehow. Lets see what dave has to say about the vice president debate.




On a searious note about the debate. I think Palin is in more trouble than everyone thought last after the debate. The initial thought was she met expectations and she survived. As people step away from that mode of thinking and reconsider how she did it was terrible. As people discuss the debates and the late night comedians reinforce the image this is going to turn into an even larger loss than originally thought.

Fight the smears, Fight the smears that be

We knew what to expect next from the McCain campaign. Go negative and now we have confirmation from TPM.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/mccain_campaigns_ad_spending_n.php

The McCain campaign has now shifted virtually 100 percent of his national ad
spending into negative ads attacking Obama, a detailed breakdown of his ad buys
reveals

No surprises of course. It will be interesting to see what the strategy is, how plays out, and how the Obama campaign responds. The initial results from both debates should be encouraging. It didn't appear undecideds were swayed and even turned off by the McCain - Palin negativism. Obama has run an amazing campaign thus far and I expect nothing less. They have a number of resources at their disposal. The vast cache of text numbers, fight the smears website http://www.fightthesmears.com/, the Obama channel http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/check-your-local-listings.html that will be integrated in responding and refuting the oncoming rash of smears.

St. Louis Blues........... thoughts on the debate

This is a pretty full extended weekend for me. Last night I had a long planned date with my wife to do the annual Columbia Jazz and Wine Pub Crawl.


http://wealwaysswing.org/schedule/event/pubcrawl/

Friday and Saturday is the second annual Roots n' Blues n' Barbecue Festival.

http://www.rootsnbluesnbbq.com/

So am I keeping pretty busy, in addition to the canvassing I did last night. I didn't have a whole lot of time to watch and analyze the debate. My take away from the debate and response was.

Biden won - no surprise.
Palin met expectations - no surprise.
No major gaffes = no surprise.

Pretty much a non event.

With the trajectory currently sharply in favor of Obama they will happily take last nights effort. What really worked for the Obama camp was Palin wasn't going to stray too far from talking points or get too far out on a limb in the negative area. This allowed Joe to do what he wanted to do and go after McCain. Palin had to worry just as much about defending her reputation as she was at defending the McCain campaign.

The subtle but maybe most important aspect may fly under the radar. Biden continued strengthning the Obama brand. If one accepts the model laid out that a number of voters do not want to vote for McCain but are not certain about Obama, then last night continued the message that Obama established last Friday night. Obama - Biden is smart, experienced, calm, cool, collected leaderly. Last nights performance will continue to convince people that Obama is a very plausible alternative to the current disaster we have. In this regards I conisder this a big win for the Obama camp.

Remember the McCain campaign's premise is that Obama / Obama - Biden are not a safe or viable alternative. Biden went a long way to knocking that premise down. Now we have a news cycle about how they did, about the bail out. Everyday Obama is up front without a major story to his negative is one step closer to 270 electoral votes.

One last thing. Palin did a good job of meeting expectations. However, if I remember right meets expectations was always a "C" in school. I think America is tired of having a "C" President or vice-president. As people go over last nights debate and analyse individual answers and go arounds it is becoming quite apparent she offered little. But she did get through the night.

McCain shows his hand

Ok we have established the game is getting out of control and Obama is starting to run the table. We asked ourselves what is McCain to do. Remembering that he is limited to 84 million he has to decide where to put his resources. McCain was hoping to make in roads in PA, MI, and
MN. As I mentioned earlier in "out of control" once PA solidified for Obama was in the drivers seat. Now that has happened McCain is down to MI and / or MN.

We have just gotten word via: Politico that the McCain is pulling out of Michigan.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html?showall

It appears they are redistributing resources to WI, OH, FL. Now OH and FL are absolutely necessary. McCain can't even keep it close let alone win with out both states. Now WI is a hopeful. I am still doubtful. Considering WI has been consistently polling for Obama if not by large margins. In addition I can only imagine the volunteer resources that are being deployed into WI from IL. Thirdly it was WI that pretty much broke the primaries open for Obama.
I will not be surprised if the resources don't leave their soon. However, McCain is going to have to go hunting somewhere even if it is along shot. We have seen McCain is a gambler and not afraid of the long shot. We will see if that plays out in his resource allocation.

"John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play."

"McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush."

Check your local listings

Yet another example why so many are impressed with leadership of this man and this campaign. I don't know who in the Obama campaign came up or executed this idea but this is a team that Obama has put together and has lead. It is an example of the kind of Presidency he would offer us.

Here are a couple of practical applications. Many rural voters don't have access to cable and rely on Dish and Directtv. Expect his future tv and web ads to direct you to his channel. There are a lot of people who use the tv as background noise this way they can become better versed in their opinions of OBama. Obama is able to program the channel. Therefore he is able to provide more than 30 second ads for the public. His ability to respond to any attacks has just increased drastically. I am certain there are advantages I am missing. Mean time check your local listing I found him on Channel 73 of dish network.

A little humor to ease the pain of the Cubs loss

I find this particularly funny having had the chance to work a number elections as a poll worker.

Ok it is time to say things are out of control

Late last night I posted that we are on the verge of putting McCain on the defensive foot with a large hole to dig out of.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/working-board.html

Those of you unfortunate to have been reading this blog for awhile are all too familiar with my argument that this is a redux of the 1980 model of presidential politics.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

Well I think we can safely say that we have reached the out of control moment of the election. It appears to have happened after the combination of America's realization the the Palin pick was a political gamble and John lost, the campaign suspension was a political gamble and John lost, the financial crisis focused the voter on the real issue of the economy instead of made up issues of lipstick etc. and John lost. Then Barack Obama stepped on the stage with John McCain at last Friday's Presidential debate and John lost. You know what Barack wasn't that scary at all. Despite what many have been telling us he was calm, cool, presidential, he knew what he was talking about and seemed to be talking to main stream America. As a matter of fact McCain seemed to be kind of the scare and mean one.

This combination of events seemed to have two effects both positive for Obama. Those supporters who were leaning Obama now have confidence in their pick and a large number of those undecideds who weren't exactly sure about him have started to break for him. We first started to see this movement in the tracking polls and the national polls which is to be expected. Now we are seeing the movement in the state polls which is what matters. Looking at Realclearpolitics.com electoral college map shows Obama up 353 to 185.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

It appears the movement in the national numbers are steadying out at about 7 points. Which may not seem huge, but consider each presidential election starts out at about 45 to 45 draw with only 10 points maximum to reach. Therefore the highest either one could truly hope to attain would be 55 to 45 and we are currently looking at about a 51 to 44 race in Obama's favor. There is not much room for him to improve but can possibly see some improvement in the state numbers which is what we are experiencing right now.

The question is what to expect now. Obama has McCain so spread out it doesn't do him a whole lot of good to concentrate on just one or two states. McCain has to decide where to put his resources. One can only expect McCain and his surrogates to go negative and personal soon. If he doesn't there aren't many games changers left. The Palin Biden debate, Palin may be able to redeem herself. However, I am of the belief that a VP can't win a race for you but can certainly lose it for you. Therefore a really good performance simply gets the McCain - Palin ticket back up to par. There is little anticipation that Obama will commit any significant flub in the remaining two debates considering this is like his 30th in a year and half. Remember even if he does he won't drop below 45 mark at absolute max in essence resetting the game were it began.

I am by no means going to say this is where this is going to end up in 5 weeks. This is where we are at at this time and Obama has to be happy about it and McCain must be scratching his head at this time. So I will look for the negative 527 ads to start rolling out possibly over some subtle race issue and definitely expect to hear the Jeremiah Wright tapes some more. The Obama campaign is expecting this and will be ready to respond. McCain will want the financail bail out to be done and overwith for two reasons. There is no question it has hurt his campaign and bad. Secondly it is going to be hard for him acampaign to get overly negative in this current political environment.

It is going to be an insteresting ride over the next 5 weeks hold on tight.