Monday Morning Quarterbacking

Updated: After writing this post I came across a detailed Gallup poll that is interesting and hits the same points below but with specific polling numbers.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110779/Debate-Watchers-Give-Obama-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx

We have had a few days to let the debate sink in watch football and get back to work and school. How did the debate go?

This is always an interesting question. The initial reports immediately after the debate by almost every pundit was the same. John McCain won on points by being aggressive on the foreign policy portion and kept the topic on earmarks during the economic crisis portion. All were fairly approving of Obama stating that he held his own. Even going as far as to say he may have won a few stylistic points.

Then the instant polls came and the pundits were once again wrong! As the posts below show. What appeared to be the main gist of the voter reviews are that Obama was steady, presidential, compassionate, talking to them, tough. McCain was strong, mean, condescending, contemptuous.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/initial-poll.html

The next thing we have to watch for is how does this all play out over the following news cycles. There is good news and bad news for Obama in this area. The good news is really good. It appears the narrative has taken hold that Obama won, was more Presidential, people are more comfortable with him and he has increased his standing in the area of foreign policy. This is actually great news especially if one believes in the 1980 model I keep spouting off about. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

An example of how a narrative can build and effect those who don't actually pay that much attention to the debate or for those who saw the debate but were still able to have their opinions affected is the most recent Diageo/Hotline poll on the question of How would you rate the job by McCain - OBama.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker092908data.pdf

Obama's results were the same for both Sat and Sun.
Sat 67 % Good/Excellent 30 % Fair/Poor.

McCAin's results have dropped from Sat to Sun fairly largely.

Sat 60 % Good/Excellent 37 % Fair/Poor
Sun 53 % Good/Excellent 44 % Fair/Poor

The narrative has taken hold and the reality in American politics is all too often that the winning narrative is the winning reality.

The only downside for OBama is the debate was on a Friday night which probably depressed viewership somewhat. Secondly since it was on a Friday night the news cycle was interrupted by the weekend. Thirdly the economic bailout plan is going to eat into this story.

The net result I believe will be a continued climb in polling for Obama. However, it may be moderated by the other news stories happening. The bottom line McCain needed to disqualify Obama as a serious contender for the job and he failed. McCain has based his campaign not on the fact the he is the better person for the job but that he is the only person for the job. This was the reason for such dismissiveness at the debate and the lack of eye contact. He is acting out his belief and his message that Obama does not deserve to be on the same stage as him. This message backfired and the people are now even more comfortable with the possibility of Obama being in the White House. Another example of this can be seen in the ad the McCain released immediately after the debate. A clip of the times that Obama was agreeing with McCain followed by the tag line NOT READY TO LEAD. Of course we know politics does not have to follow logic but what is this ad saying. Obama agrees with me so no way can we trust him?

Where do we go from here. The McCain campaign has another chance to change the storyline for a few days with the Palin debate. Expectations are amazingly low and she should be able to walk over them. It has been suggested that Biden simply shut and let her talk. I find it hard to believe that she is as bad as the Couric interviews suggest. We'll have to watch and see.