The polls are showing a general slide back toward Obama. In retrospect this was to be expected. Regardless how many times we told ourselves not to get too excited over the polls we tend to be creatures of habit I guess. We were over enthusiastic when Obama took a 7 point lead with his convention bump. Then there was a collective depression when the lead evaporated with McCain's bump.
Now that McCain's bump is receding and we find ourselves pretty much where we were before the VP picks and the conventions. Which we pretty much knew intellectually even if we didn't trust it emotionally, if that makes sense.
It is clear as the bumps work their way out of the polls Obama has been gaining a little momentum. We will have to again watch over the next week to see how this shakes out.
This is were my gut feeling comes into play. My gut tells me that Palin has peaked and we will have to see where she lands as a VP candidate. As she slides back into the back ground McCain will once again become the focus. This is coinciding with the loss of his bump. Coincidental or cause and effect? I am postulating (I like to use big words when I can) that it is a little bit of both.
Updated with some info from Kos in his post just out
The trendline is indisputable (it was just picked
up by CBS). And just as Palin's initial popularity bolstered McCain, her
sudden faltering is now bringing him back
down to earth. You might have even noticed that the latest round of McCain
ads don't even feature her or refer to "McCain/Palin". It's back to just
"McCain". She was starting to drag him down.
Interestingly I suspect that we will see a continued slide of McCain - Palin for a few reasons.
This weeks financial crisis cuts McCain in two directions. First was his huge blunder "the fundamentals of this economy are strong". No explanation needed I think. Second there is a long record of the McCain being the true conservative that he is has been against regulation. It will play very simply that this crisis was a result of lax or no regulation over the financial system. This is one area where there is no question that McCain is 100% more of the same as Bush. So as a result we have McCain who doesn't get, helped caused it, and is more of it when it comes to the financial world.
Updated 09/22 with post from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/did-economic-crisis-burst_n_128185.html
counting from last Monday, the same Palin search on Nexis turns up 1,866 hits, a
decrease of just under 31 percent.
The other side of this is this may put Palin in focus in a more subtle way. This is the first crisis or test since she was named VP nominee. It comes at a time when people are refining and developing their opinions about her from a more reasoned approach. If they in fact decide she is not qualified to handle the economy this bail out and crisis will remind people she could have a very real impact on their lives. I am not certain that realization will settle well.
So back to my gut. Look for the polls to continue to shift toward Obama until the debates. Then it will be a whole new ball game once again.
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