Working the board

I watch the polls admittedly way too much. I try not to post on them too much. CNN is reporting that the debate has had no effect on polling. My gut is telling me something different. We may not be seeing large jumps in the polling numbers. There is a consensus growing that is showing Obama up by at least 6 and hitting 51 % in a number of polls.

In addition and more importantly we are seeing these gains being consolidated in the state polling which, as we all learned in 2000 if we weren't aware of before, is what matters.



Obama
McCain O M
Diageo/Hotline 47 41 +6
Gallup 49 43 +6
Rasmussen Reports 51 45 +6
Research 2000/dKos 51 41 +10

Average: 49.50 42.50 +7

What I have been watching for is Pennsylvania to firm up and it seems to have done that over the past few days. If / once Obama can lock PA in place the chess board is definitely in his favor . He is set to go on offense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html


FOX News/Rasmussen
50 42
Obama +8
Morning Call
49 42
Obama +7
SurveyUSA
50 44
Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R)
47 46
Obama +1
CNN/Time
53 44
Obama +9
National Journal/FD
43 41
Obama +2

Once PA is locked in Obama is sitting on 249 Electoral votes needing to pick up just 21 to win. This scenario has both MN and WI currently as toss ups. WI has Obama up by 3.8 which is a higher margin than Kerry or Gore won it by. I am pretty confident that with the next release of the polling data for WI we will see their Electoral votes being placed in the Obama column. As the two most current polls have him up by 6 and 7 respectively. This will bring Obama to 259.

Eleven to go.

MN should be easier than it is right now. He is currently polling at about 2.8 to the good side. This is right in the middle of where Kerry and Gore ended up. These polls are a touch dated so we could see a big swing in the next release and it would not be a surprise. Minnesota is surprising me a little. I do not expect it to remain this close. It may be that Minnesota really likes their mavericks after all this is the state that brought us Jessy the Body as the Governor. However, if MN does fall in line we are at 269 Electoral votes.

1 Electoral vote to go.

If we are indeed at this stage Obama has several areas to hunt that extra EV that he needs and McCain has to defend. New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri are the smallest. Then we look at Virginia and North Carolina were Obama is coming on strong and actually currently leading in Virginia. These are very traditional red states that McCain should not have to defend. Last but not least we have the complete game changers. Ohio which is down to a 1 point lead for McCain and Florida which is down to .3 lead for McCain. What is expected to be a long night on Nov. 4 may over very early if either one of these states come in for Obama.

Considering McCain has to defend all this territory before he can even consider going on the offense to pick up the necessary 270 he is in a tight spot. Remember McCain is limited to matching funds of 84 mil. Obama has unlimited spending to attack the McCain territory. See the post below.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/search?q=84

Now that we are six weeks out, we past the holidays, school is back in session, and the debates are upon us let's examine where we are. McCain is confined to the 84 million dollars between now and Nov. 4. Obama is free to spend all the
money he sees fit in any manner he sees fit. This coincides with an announced increased in ad buying by the Obama campaign by something like 20%

So even though the polls may only be showing a 6 - 7 point lead the actual numbers are much worse for McCain and may well explain the hysterics his campaign are currently in.

Supreme Ignorance

Updated:

The actual question is name any other cases you disagree with. Okay Bush v. Gore. Don't agree with their equal protection clause cited to shut down a state run election.


Marbury Vs. Madison
Plessy Vs. Ferguson
Brown Vs. the Board of Education
Brown Vs. the Board of Education II
Bush V. Gore

What am I talking about the first five Supreme Court Cases that came to my mind after reading the statement below.

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major
court cases. There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there
was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0908/In_reintroduction_Palin_to_do_more_interviews_and_tell_her_story.html

John McCain and the Republican party ask us to possibly trust this lady to appoint the next three Supreme Court justices. McCain is becoming more and more of a farce as each day goes by.

Changing colors

Paraphrasing Chris Mathews....


John McCain is a Maverick he tried to be a leader this week, he failed.

This is regarding the lack of republican support in the house for the bailout bill.

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

Updated: After writing this post I came across a detailed Gallup poll that is interesting and hits the same points below but with specific polling numbers.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110779/Debate-Watchers-Give-Obama-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx

We have had a few days to let the debate sink in watch football and get back to work and school. How did the debate go?

This is always an interesting question. The initial reports immediately after the debate by almost every pundit was the same. John McCain won on points by being aggressive on the foreign policy portion and kept the topic on earmarks during the economic crisis portion. All were fairly approving of Obama stating that he held his own. Even going as far as to say he may have won a few stylistic points.

Then the instant polls came and the pundits were once again wrong! As the posts below show. What appeared to be the main gist of the voter reviews are that Obama was steady, presidential, compassionate, talking to them, tough. McCain was strong, mean, condescending, contemptuous.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/initial-poll.html

The next thing we have to watch for is how does this all play out over the following news cycles. There is good news and bad news for Obama in this area. The good news is really good. It appears the narrative has taken hold that Obama won, was more Presidential, people are more comfortable with him and he has increased his standing in the area of foreign policy. This is actually great news especially if one believes in the 1980 model I keep spouting off about. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

An example of how a narrative can build and effect those who don't actually pay that much attention to the debate or for those who saw the debate but were still able to have their opinions affected is the most recent Diageo/Hotline poll on the question of How would you rate the job by McCain - OBama.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker092908data.pdf

Obama's results were the same for both Sat and Sun.
Sat 67 % Good/Excellent 30 % Fair/Poor.

McCAin's results have dropped from Sat to Sun fairly largely.

Sat 60 % Good/Excellent 37 % Fair/Poor
Sun 53 % Good/Excellent 44 % Fair/Poor

The narrative has taken hold and the reality in American politics is all too often that the winning narrative is the winning reality.

The only downside for OBama is the debate was on a Friday night which probably depressed viewership somewhat. Secondly since it was on a Friday night the news cycle was interrupted by the weekend. Thirdly the economic bailout plan is going to eat into this story.

The net result I believe will be a continued climb in polling for Obama. However, it may be moderated by the other news stories happening. The bottom line McCain needed to disqualify Obama as a serious contender for the job and he failed. McCain has based his campaign not on the fact the he is the better person for the job but that he is the only person for the job. This was the reason for such dismissiveness at the debate and the lack of eye contact. He is acting out his belief and his message that Obama does not deserve to be on the same stage as him. This message backfired and the people are now even more comfortable with the possibility of Obama being in the White House. Another example of this can be seen in the ad the McCain released immediately after the debate. A clip of the times that Obama was agreeing with McCain followed by the tag line NOT READY TO LEAD. Of course we know politics does not have to follow logic but what is this ad saying. Obama agrees with me so no way can we trust him?

Where do we go from here. The McCain campaign has another chance to change the storyline for a few days with the Palin debate. Expectations are amazingly low and she should be able to walk over them. It has been suggested that Biden simply shut and let her talk. I find it hard to believe that she is as bad as the Couric interviews suggest. We'll have to watch and see.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong

Jed from Jed Report via Huffington Post.





This guy is good. I mean both Jed and Obama.

Very effective and may very well be the moment that is crystallized from this debate. Regardless of McCain's condiscension here is a moment of Obama lecturing McCain on an area that is supposed to be McCains's strength.

Initial Poll

First polls re: who won.


Obama 52%
McCain 38%


Not the reaction McCain needs.

CBS Poll

40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw.

Gergen: I can't emphasize enough how important these numbers are.

Could this be the final straw the breaks the camels back.

Joe Biden

In refuting John McCains claims of experience. Joe just stated that he has been at all the places John had mentioned. "And just because he's been there doesn't mean he's right".

Don't hold your breath

This is admittedly shallow in light of the actual debate. Interesting none the less. At the completion of Wolf Blitzer interviewing VP nominee Joe Biden, Wolf stated that they had invited Sarah Palin and would hope to get soon. Anderson Cooper sighed "Don't hold your breath".

Joe Biden is on MSNBC right now. Good move to get Joe out there on every network possible. First he is good. He is delivering the message. Then it forces every network to explain that they in fact have invited Palin and the campaign has refused.

Does any one else feel bad for her?

Am I the only that is starting to feel bad for Sarah Palin. Not in a manner that excuses her but just bad. The three snippets for the Couric interview are just amazingly horrible. I honestly do not think I am exaggerating. It feels like she has been asked to totally scrub her own thought process and memorize everything John McCain stands for , which by the way John is not even forced to do.

One just feels her searching for what talking point to plug into what questions. It also feels like she is scared to death that she might mess up. It is also very apparent that she has been able to get away with using her gee ain't that great folksy charm to get herself out trouble before. Regardless she does not instill a sense of confidence and definitely leads one to question John McCains judgement all that much more. The situation she is in is a result that McCain tapped someone with no credible standing and therefore has no room for error and she appears to be buckling under the immense pressure.





When I start feeling too bad for her I just think back to the one appearence she did deliver well. The Republican National Convention. Everything seems right and I score one for the community organizers out in the world.

What to make of McCain's gamble?

Two things stick out. Well maybe three

1) Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama up 9 point in their poll released today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667_pf.html

2) See my previous post regarding the possibility of this race getting out of control posted last saturday....

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

The McCain campaign is aware that this could get out of control at any moment,
over any reason. Obama's foreign trip was one example and the McCain camp
handled it effectively if not tastlessly. The Democratic Convention was another
spot where it could have gotten out of hand and thus the wild card pick of
Palin. We are now looking at the current financial crisis. This crisis is
undoubtley benefitting the Obama camp and rightfully so. The question remains is
this where the contest gets out of control. We will have to wait and see.

Considering how a majority of Americans are skeptical of John McCains's reasoning for picking Sarah Palin his current gamble is going to be viewed through this same skeptical prism.

We already have the first signs as such via SUSA snap poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02

Results summarized.

50 % hold debate
36 % hold debate focus on economy
10 % suspend debate.

An irony of this is that he may have had a better chance on pulling this stunt if he hadn't already ruined his reputation with the Palin pick.

Biden goes on Foreign Affairs offense days before Debate

Joe Biden was in Cincinnati, OH today speaking on foreign affairs. Biden ratcheted up his attack of John McCain calling him out on his poor foreign affairs judgement. Using the phrase "dangerously wrong". A phrase the campaign was certain to know would grab headlines on this wednesday and thursday for the foreign affairs debate on Friday night.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13834.html

Joe hasn't been heard much on the campaign trail over the last couple of weeks. This is partly by chance with all the oxygen been sucked up by the Palin stories, the McCain stories, the fiscal crisis and by Obama. Also it could be part by design. One thing that has frequently impressed me by the Obama campaign has been their since of timing. I remember early on last year some one referring to Obama as a strong finisher. This was amid a numerous of comments by analyst saying he was going to have to go on the offense vs. Hillary as early as last July. Obama steadied his course and came on like gangbusters last December and January. It takes real calm, confidence and sense of the overall picture to hold your fire until a time that will deliver the greatest payoff.

The Obama campaign was taking some heat this over this summer for not being aggressive enough. We could be once again be witnessing a more fine tune sense of timing. It makes a great deal of sense on many fronts. Between the conventions, the olympics, summer vacations, gas prices one has to question how many people were focused and paying attention. He could have spent a ton more money but what would get from it. This is in comparison to the McCain campaign which took financing. The McCain campaign had to dump a bunch of money just prior to the convention that was raised in the primary. The jump coincided with the Palin pick and the Convention which may have coincidentally artificially increased his bump. We see how long his bump has lasted.

Now that we are six weeks out, we past the holidays, school is back in session, and the debates are upon us let's examine where we are. McCain is confined to the 84 million dollars between now and Nov. 4. Obama is free to spend all the money he sees fit in any manner he sees fit. This coincides with an anounced increased in ad buying by the Obama campaign by something like 20%. I have a feeling the ads being aired from here on in will be more effective than the ones over the summer. Let's also remember by allowing the McCain to take the first hyper negative shot this summer that narrative has already been set that McCain has gone negative and personal. Any response by Obama will be seen as a rebuttal. We saw this in the primary. Hillary was forced to negative and many said over board. When Obama responded and kept the response to issues he was seen as the positive candidate. We see this identical scenario playing out in the General. Now keep in mind the other major difference between the McCain and Obama negative ads is subject. McCain has been releasing a flurry of personal attacks, smear by association and highly exaggerated fabrication. Obama has been able to repeatedly use McCain's own words against him. (admittedly their may be a subtext to the adds of out of touch). However when one can't remember how many houses one has what can we expect.



Back to Biden. Joe goes on the offensive today gaining some press just as Palin has been rediculed for not being able to face the press. McCain is going to have to respond and it puts McCain on a defensive footing setting the tone for the debate. We'll see how effective it is, I don't see a way in which it hurts. Also this is a good time to consider how searious this comment (dangerously wrong) would have been taken if it had been delivered by Palin against Obama.

The more one watches Obama conduct his campaign it is impressive and honorable. This very much what we should expect out of our next President.

Sexism? Now that you mention it.....

You don't get much more mainstream than Campbell Brown.

Find out!

I have come across a few different ads on the web today. Obama ads linking to

https://www.voteforchange.com/

The link is online resource to assist in registering, voting absentee, and locating polling places. This is the kind of under the radar efforts that the Obama camp are leveraging. This is but one part of the "ground game" that is discussed so often. This all ties in with the use of texting and text numbers the campaign are collecting.

It reminds me of the proposal Obama made in his speech in Green Bay reagarding posting all bills that pass congress on line for 5 days before signing. Such a simple idea but a wonderful insight to technology available and the thirst for Americans to reconnect to their government. If you have a moment link to

https://www.voteforchange.com/

Ideas instead of Insults. An example of leadership

Thanks to Etcoug for pointing me to this.

This is Obama's speech in Green Bay WI. If you have a few minutes to watch this is a great reminder why so many of us are working so hard for this man to help us take back this country.

This is the type leadership we need in this time of crisis.

"I've got something more powerful than they do, I've got you"

----Barack Obama

Obama calm cool collected, McCain well....

I agree with George Will seldom. (Except maybe when it comes to baseball) However, he seems to speak his mind other than spewing a campaigns talking points. I heard a brief tidbit from the Sunday shows re: the candidates handling the financial crisis. He has decided to put his pen where his mouth is. The following is the opening line from his current piece in the Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama

These comments appear to be in line with former Secretary of State Powell's comments regarding to McCains reaction to the military conflict between Russia and Georgia earlier this summer. It appears McCain for whatever reason needs to be seen as a man of action when these situations arise. It is hard to tell if this a campaign calcuation or a reflection on his personal makeup. Unfortanetly his rush to action has proven in accurate and off the mark in both circumstances. This is but one more way in which McCain is more of Bush and Obama is a contrast. It goes back to what the Seattle Times endorsement stated regarding having some one who is intelligent and will work through a crisis.

We need the leader of the free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results ofshooting from the hip.

Seattle Times Endorsement

Will continues on discussing McCains approach to personnel decisions in a possible McCain adminstration. Sounds like Will did not have the wool pulled over his eyes on the Palin pick .

But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.

Obama endorses Darcy Burner

No surprises here. Interesting timing coming on the heels of the Seattle Times endorsement. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008190671_obamaed21.html Quick note. My first involvement in any campaign was when Dave Ross ran against Reichert back in 2004. My involvement was limited. I was inspired to participate for many of the reasons that brought me to Obama. Dave has a farily liberal philsophy, but he is not partisan and is able to approach subjects with an open mind. Any way this should be a day of good news for Burner.

http://www.darcyburner.com/

The races I intend to watch the closest as mentioned before are the following.

Pres. - Missouri
Gov - Missouri - Washington
Cong - Missouri 9th - Washington 8th

Does Canvassing really help?

I got this question this morning from a person I happened upon and is an Obama supporter. I realated my experience as to why I thought it does and how it plays into the overall strategy for voter registration and turnout. I came home and did my usual surfing and happened upon Fivethirtyeight.com with an article discussing in depth the effectiveness of canvassing. There is also a pretty interesting descprition of the activities involved in the canvassing effort by the Obama campaign.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-road-grand-junction-colorado.html

Having spent a few hours on Sunday canvassing I have to say it isn't necessarily easy. It can be fun and can definately be fulfilling. There were a lot of people not home. I did come across one lady who was leaning toward Obama but hadn't quite finalized her decision. To her husbands dismay she spoke with me for a few minutes after closing the door behind her. I answered the policy questions I could, I marked the issues she had questions about so we could forward her the appropriate literature. Most importantly I related why it mattered to me and how I came to be a volunteer. I truly felt after our discussion she was much more confident in her deicision. I am a very average looking 40 year old male and the fact that I was doing this to better the future for my son was very reassuring her.

Here in Missouri and probably other parts of the country I think people are looking to be reassured it is okay to vote for Obama. I get the "there is something I don't trust about him " quote alot.

I can't imagine what that could be.

The impact of neighbors talking to neighbors in this election has an even greater potential of convincing people to vote for Obama. I also believe there are people out here who just assume they would never vote for Obama. Never really thinking it through. Again this is an area where personal contact may convince them to reconsider why they are or they are not voting. It took me almost a month to convince myself to go out and canvass. I am glad I did and will being so again next week.

Update: I cross posted this over at DailyKos and it received quite a bit of discussion that may be worth looking at.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/22/131337/308/638/606529

Obama tightens the knot on Healthcare

We discussed earlier John McCains desire to deregulate the Health Care Industry in much the same way "we" deregulated the banking industry.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/poor-john-ties-himself-into-knot.html

Obama hit hard on the stump. here come the ads.




This is going to get a lot of play. When it comes to Health Care like all issues people can have differing opinions while having good intentions. Single payer vs. market based vs. tax breaks etc. There can be a legitimate debate as to the best way to address the need to improve our current situtaion. The one thing that is unquestionably universal is a need to improve our current health care reality.

This opening provided solely by McCain reignites the debate. Now while we can all debate on the best way to get there it is pretty clear the the manner McCain is offering is not effective and not going to be popular. Obama will not have to stress his specific ideas simply remind people of McCains idea which tie back into the financial mess we are in and McCains approach to government which he has been advocating for 26 years.

Seattle Times endorses Obama

Having had the good fortune to live in the Seattle area for almost 10 years I try to keep on eye on Washington state politics. Washington state will be fertile ground for the November election. The Gregoire Rossi rematch is going to be fun to watch. Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert congressional battle will be an uphill battle but a doable pick up. Obama should carry the state I am not convinced the race is as close as the last couple of polls have indicated. On that note the Seattle Times endorsed Obama this weekend. This is no real surprise. They endorsed Kerry in 2004 and did so early in the election process similiar to this years timing.

It is true that they endoresed Bushed in 2000. They are a more moderate paper than the Seattle Post Intelligencer is. My take was they were moderate to slightly left leaning. It is still good as this is the most widely distributed paper in Washington state and may have an impact on suburban voters which is probably the swing voters in the state like many states.

The Money Quote

Obama should be the next president of the United States because he is the most qualified change agent. Obama is a little young, but also brilliant. If he
sometimes seems brainy and professonial, that's OK. We need the leader of the
free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results of
shooting from the hip.

This contrast seems to have grown even more stark with The McCain pick of Palin. If there ever was a "little Bush" she is sure it. It is also reflective of McCains judgement and executive style.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008190671_obamaed21.html

Quote Unquote

'If you don't stop lying about my reputation, I'm going to start telling the truth about yours.'"
Barack Obama quoting Abraham Lincoln.


It doesn't get much better for a progressive political junkie from a small town in Central Illinois. And the Cubs win to boot.

Cubs Win the Pennant, Cubs Win the Pennant, Cubs Win the Penant...

Well not quite yet. They took the first step with their 5 -4 victory over the Cards clinching the National league Central.

Focus on Mo. Some Mo.

Just started reading through some research 2000 MO poll. Which can be found here . http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/20/0313/31602


Some quick thoughts. Baker is behind by nine in the district while in this district only Obama is behind by 19. First this illustrates why the work we are doing here in Mid Missouri especially in Columbia is so important to make Missouri possible. Secondly looking at the demographic break down the the 18 - 29 age group strikes me as possibly being low. Now I don't pretend to be a statistician or know the historical averages right off. However, personal experience which can be overweighted way too easy tells me there is going to be a stronger turnout in this category. New registrations are up. The Universty population is very active and excited by the race. The Obama campaign is working night and day to locate, identify and mobilize this group. My suspicion is that in this race there is a good chance that even though Obama appears to be drag in the current polling he will actually help Baker on election day. Obama and Nixon are going to be very attractive top of the ticket people to this group of voters and may well carry on down the line.

Focus on MO

Since we are located here in the middle of the middle of the country in mid-missouri there will be an attempt to focus on the Missouri race. We found some polling information from Research 2000 via fivetirtyeight.com showing a 4 gap between McCain and Obama. While it is possible for Obama to win without Mo it is not possible for McCain to win with out MO. Nate Silver notes that Obama has not step foot here since July. However, Biden was well recieved in Columbia a couple of weeks ago.

Let's start in Missouri, where a Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch gives McCain a 4 point lead. Research 2000 had been just about the only poll to show a lead for Obama in Missouri before, and with that evaporating, the state would seem to be pretty unlikely to change colors. Although Obama has a robust field operation in Missouri, he has not visited the state since July. Indiana -- where the McCain campaign is gambling by not fielding a ground organization and which is partly in Chicago's backyard -- may present the more interesting opportunity.

I can assure you here in central Missouri which will be one of the keys to winning the state the field organization is going strong. There will be five canvassing runs this weekend. I will be going out tommorrow. There continues to be a swell of people coming in and getting involved.

Out of Control

I am more and more conviced this election is going to follow the 1980 model we have discussed previously. The undecideds are waiting to pass judgement on Obama and when they do, they may well do it in large percentages. The McCain campaign knows this. They know if they are going to win it will be by narrow margins, however, if they lose it could be a substantial loss.

Essentially the two options are a McCain squeaker or an Obama win by a decent margin. This is why we saw the bombardment of negativity earlier this summer from the McCain camp. Admittedly it was surprisingly effective. Next they threw the hail mary pass with Palin which had an initially positive impact and may continue to excite the base over the long term. However, her support among main stream Americans continues to slide and may only increase slightly after the VP debate. Although it may deteriorate as well. Since there is only one VP debate sandwiched by mulitple Pres. debates the impact will be minimal. Her impact will not vary largely from where her current slide ends.

The McCain campaign is aware that this could get out of control at any moment, over any reason. Obama's foreign trip was one example and the McCain camp handled it effectively if not tastlessly. The Democratic Convention was another spot where it could have gotten out of hand and thus the wild card pick of Palin. We are now looking at the current financial crisis. This crisis is undoubtley benefitting the Obama camp and rightfully so. The question remains is this where the contest gets out of control. We will have to wait and see.

The next point where voters will start sharpen their focus will be the debates and it will be interesting timing coming on the heels of the financial bailout.

Poor John ties himself into a knot Obama Helps

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.


---John McCain


"So let me get this straight -- he wants to run health care like they've been running Wall Street," Obama told the audience. "Well, Senator, I know some folks on Main Street who aren't going to think that's such a good idea."


---Barack Obama

Gut feeling

Wrote this Sept 17 with an update this morning.

The polls are showing a general slide back toward Obama. In retrospect this was to be expected. Regardless how many times we told ourselves not to get too excited over the polls we tend to be creatures of habit I guess. We were over enthusiastic when Obama took a 7 point lead with his convention bump. Then there was a collective depression when the lead evaporated with McCain's bump.

Now that McCain's bump is receding and we find ourselves pretty much where we were before the VP picks and the conventions. Which we pretty much knew intellectually even if we didn't trust it emotionally, if that makes sense.

It is clear as the bumps work their way out of the polls Obama has been gaining a little momentum. We will have to again watch over the next week to see how this shakes out.
This is were my gut feeling comes into play. My gut tells me that Palin has peaked and we will have to see where she lands as a VP candidate. As she slides back into the back ground McCain will once again become the focus. This is coinciding with the loss of his bump. Coincidental or cause and effect? I am postulating (I like to use big words when I can) that it is a little bit of both.


Updated with some info from Kos in his post just out

The trendline is indisputable (it was just picked
up by CBS). And just as Palin's initial popularity bolstered McCain, her
sudden faltering is now bringing him back
down to earth. You might have even noticed that the latest round of McCain
ads don't even feature her or refer to "McCain/Palin". It's back to just
"McCain". She was starting to drag him down.

Interestingly I suspect that we will see a continued slide of McCain - Palin for a few reasons.
This weeks financial crisis cuts McCain in two directions. First was his huge blunder "the fundamentals of this economy are strong". No explanation needed I think. Second there is a long record of the McCain being the true conservative that he is has been against regulation. It will play very simply that this crisis was a result of lax or no regulation over the financial system. This is one area where there is no question that McCain is 100% more of the same as Bush. So as a result we have McCain who doesn't get, helped caused it, and is more of it when it comes to the financial world.

Updated 09/22 with post from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/did-economic-crisis-burst_n_128185.html

counting from last Monday, the same Palin search on Nexis turns up 1,866 hits, a
decrease of just under 31 percent.

The other side of this is this may put Palin in focus in a more subtle way. This is the first crisis or test since she was named VP nominee. It comes at a time when people are refining and developing their opinions about her from a more reasoned approach. If they in fact decide she is not qualified to handle the economy this bail out and crisis will remind people she could have a very real impact on their lives. I am not certain that realization will settle well.

So back to my gut. Look for the polls to continue to shift toward Obama until the debates. Then it will be a whole new ball game once again.

Kos's take

Check out the following work over at Kos. He hits many of the points re: Palin poll numbers showing a 18 decrease over a number of days.

Update as of this morning (Sat 20th) the free fall continues at 24 point drop in 9 days. 40 favorable 47 unfavorable.

So we focused heavily on Palin, and make no mistake, it's exactly that intense
focus that has taken its toll on her numbers:

Approve Disapprove No
Opinion
9/11: 52
35 13 +17
9/12: 51
37 12 +14
9/13: 49
40 11 +9
9/14: 47
42 11 +5
9/15: 47
43 10 +4
9/16: 45
44 11 +1
9/17: 44
45 11 -1
9/18: 42
46 11 -4

That's a shocking 21-point collapse in a single week.

Obama takes on McCain

A fighter. I am convinced that is what many working class American's want right now. It probably doesn't even matter what the fight is about. This is how Hillary struck a strong chord late in the primary season. She found her stride when her back was against the wall and had to come out swinging. The initial Palin enthusiasm was based soley on her convetion speech which had nothing to it but snide remarks, hey look at my family and more snide remarks. Obama is a good fighter he does if differently. He does it with humor and when he is on he is tough. We are going to see more of this from him and Biden. This clip is a great example.

A few of my favorite things

Many times it is the simplest things that stick with us. This is probably even more true in politics. With that in mind the following one lines have been making me laugh.



The old boy's network. In the McCain campaign, that's called a staff meeting.

---Barack Obama


I can see Russia from my house.

----Tina Fey as Gov. Palin - SNL

Missouri Registration

Missouri

Deadline for registering to vote is Wednesday, October 8, 2008.
Voter registration form, here. Requesting a form sent to you, here.
Absentee ballot form, here.
DO NOT SEND ABSENTEE BALLOT APPLICATIONS TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S OFFICE. ABSENTEE BALLOT APPLICATIONS MUST BE SENT TO THE APPROPRIATE LOCAL ELECTION AUTHORITY BY THE DEADLINE IN ORDER TO BE VALID.
Local election authority contact information, here. Information on the guidelines of Missouri absentee ballot, here.
Additional voter registration information, here.

The above information provided by icebergslim over at dailykos

Vacation

On Vacation for a week in Seattle. It is going to be a busy two months before the election. Will be back at in a week.

John McCain - Hypocrit

How can he with a straight face send Sarah Palin up there to deliver the speech she did and then come on and talk about respecting his opponent.

Oh yeah that is the way they have always done it.

Random Reaction

I an sensing a lot of using going on.
McCain using Palin as a puppet. Stand up there look good and deliver the lines that he is unable to. Does any one think for a second that Sarah Palin would say to McCain and his handlers no I don't feel comfortable saying that.

This feeling may be a result from the fact that the words seemed too scripted. They seem not to carry any weight. Now admittedly she did a wonderful job delivering them. However, it has been reported that the essence of the speech was written prior to her selection and then adjusted after her selection. This came through the in the speech.

The base is energized times two. She was effective in bringing to life the rightwing but also she woke up the already energized left wing as well. The numbers being thrown around are 10 million dollars in 24 hours for Obama.

Her sarcasm is going to be very effective to those who are sympathetic to her, McCain and the right. It will be very grating to the left. The question is how will it play in the middle. The longer I contemplate and read the more I think it will generally annoy more than it will draw people to her. This comes back to the fact these words weren't necessarily hers. The speech would have been much more effective had it been delivered by someone who has earned the stature to question another. She simply is not there to those in the middle. The condensation, the mocking, the pettiness all come off bad. This brings me back to the fact that she is being used by the McCain camp. They don't have any use for her other than what it gains them. If she ends up damaging her image, her reputation what do they care.

Even though they are using her she is using them right back. Whether she has gotten in over her head or not is to be found out as the clock winds down to election day. However, she has jumped at it whole hog. She has sold her family down the drain for her chance of jumping to the front of the line of Republican pecking order.


The McCain camp is up to something with the belittling of the community organizer. Not completely convinced what. A couple of possibilities it could be an attempt to draw Obama into a passionate defense and a back and forth with Sarah Palin. Any time he or the campaign spends in a back and forth with her it lowers his status down to her. McCain wins in this scenario regardless of the outcome. The other option could be the dog whistle approach to politics. Are they calling attention to something unspoken? If they are it is one of two things. First and most direct is a racist cultural exchange. Community organizer, if you think about it what communities do people automatically assume need organizing. It immediately draws peoples attention to urban poor inner city (black) neighbor hoods. The other more charitable bait could be left wing bashing. What kind of people spend their time community organizing.

Regardless considering the true lack of policy in the speeches it is evident that McCain's handlers have decided (since it is uncertain if McCain is making any of his own decisions anymore) to turn this election into a culture war circa 1988 or 2000.

Obama's job is to keep it's focus on the economy and judgement. My belief is that the Obama camp has shown enough intelligence and discipline to keep a laser focus on the economy, judgement, and need to change things for a better. They will continue demonstrating their political jujistu and turn this back against McCain.

Fair Game?

Sarah Palin's children should be off limits. There should be no question to that. Obama has said as much and the campaign is steering completely clear of it. That being said, here is a note to the McCain campaign. Sarah Palin's children should be off limits.

"Let me be as clear as possible. I think people's families are
off-limits, and people's children are especially off-limits. This shouldn't be
part of our politics. It has no relevance to Gov. Palin's performance as
governor or her potential performance as a vice president."
--Barack Obama

Let's wait and see what happens tonight. It is shaping up that the McCain / Palin ticket????? (still doesn't sound right) will use the family to maximum benefit. Wanna a bet the camera gets fixed on Bristol and boyfriend if they don't get a specific shout out in the speech. Why else is the boyfriend being flown in for the speech. Let's hope I am wrong. The situation these two are in is tough and should not be used as a political prop.

Taxes take II

We have been hearing a lot about taxes prior to the McCain camp turning their convention into a culture war. Those of us who can stand to watch should attempt to keep track if they or how much they say specifically about the economy and their proposals.

Mean while to get a true understanding of the two tax plans please follow the link for a interactive comparison of the two tax plans.

http://alchemytoday.com/obamataxcut/

I would like to thank etcoug for the link.

To see previous post regarding the estate tax click here:
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/08/taxes.html

I must be even handed

When it was coming down to the wire as to who would be Obama's VP pick I posted the Intrade trading figures on Biden's chances. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/08/and-winne-is.html

To be fair I will post the Intrade trading figures on whether or not Sara Palin will withdraw.

I think it is time

As was mentioned in an earlier posting I now have the freedom of my only child going to school. I discussed what to do now. I have come up with an answer at least for now.

I am going to change the world. Sound a little far-fetched? Well you know what, it is not. Not if you believe. Those of us who are familiar with many of Barack's speeches will be aware of his fired up, ready to go speech. It centers on the affect one person can have on a room, one room, on a town, a town on a state, etc. Well it is time to act. I am fired up and I am ready to go. Ready to go work to make a difference.

Having the good fortune of living in the middle of Missouri for this Presidential election I can make a difference. Missouri is a bellweather state. It has voted for every Presidential winner except one (which was close) since at least 1944. What's more I happen to live in the center of the state that tends mirror the states voting habits. Missouri has a few distinct voting regions. The urban St. Louis and Kansas city areas (heavily democratic), the suburban areas which fluctuate, the rural areas (heavily republican), the southwest Springfield region (heavily republican), and Mid Missouri the Boone county region (swing).

In 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 158 votes. Not this time. I am going to work in my southwest coroner of Columbia to ensure that Obama maximizes his turnout in this city that is ready for a change. If I can work with a team to make sure we win this coroner of Columbia, I am confident my fellow volunteers will work as hard to make sure we win the other sections of Columbia. Once we win Columbia by a large margin, we will reverse 2004 and win Boone County by a large margin. Winning Boone county by a large margin will put us in position to win the state of Missouri. If we win the state of Missouri we will win this election. There is no one that will tell you differently. Once we win this election we will start to see the improvement in our federal government that we all so desperately need, want, and know is right.

I have to stop typing so I can go change the world. If you have any extra time maybe you can join me.

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