I have been gone awhile with the hectic schedule of the Holidays. I hope to get things back up to speed over the next week. Here is a great place to start. Not only looking back over the past year, but looking back over the past two years of the campaign. Whether it is a sad statement or a great statement I am not sure. I lived and breath everyone one of these moments.
Watch CBS Videos Online
Monday, December 29, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Next Up....
As we wrap 2008's high and low lights. It is time to start looking toward the year to come. The first big event on the calender after the hangover's clear is the Inauguration. Original size estimates were reaching fro 4 -5 mill. Now it appears to be scaling back to 1 - 3 mill. This info. is courtesy of the the following. I found this quote to be interesting considering our buses are definitely being chartered here in MO. West of the Mississippi.
Washington Post
"The D.C. government recently conducted a telephone and Internet survey of charter bus companies east of the Mississippi River, which concluded that about half of their 23,000 vehicles are booked for the inauguration, Tangherlini said. Estimated number of passengers: 500,000."
Friday, December 19, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Sunday, December 14, 2008
What does CHANGE look like
The Columbia Daily Tribune covered the "Change Today" meeting last week. All in all it was an accurate piece. The reality was there was some of the tension present that was reported.
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Dec/20081214News006.asp
What was missing from the piece and I do not fault the reporter was the positive energy that developed in the break out groups outside of the Policy group. The major instance is the work being done by the Charity / Community Service Group.
In the six weeks since the election this band of people who have worked so hard to change the politics in Washington have also turned their attention to changing the local community for the better. There has been a call to volunteers to assist in the annual "Everybody Eats" thanksgiving day meal hosted by Almeta Crayton of Columbia, a gift drive was organized, coordinated and executed for the Voluntary Action Center vacmo.org. This drive included the work of over a dozen volunteers and collected over a $1,000.00 in gift cards for the areas underprivileged for Holiday gifts. Now the Charity / Community Service group is turning their attention to assisting in the area of home heating cost and weatherproofing.
As a person who has been involved in this process from early on I can state that there may have been some missteps in communication along the way. That being said, we are volunteers with true intentions of making something positive of this moment in time. We may not be the best at setting a meeting agenda, but just look at what we accomplished when we put our energy toward a shared goal. Regarding the tension in the meeting, to be blunt the vast majority of tension originated from people who were not necessarily active in the Obama Campaign for Change. These were people more likely part of the established Democratic county organization. There has been tension with this group ever since the Obama campaign came to town and established itself independently of the county party. From my understanding this is an issue every four years and was probably even worse this time around because the Obama camp was so successful in fundraising and gathering volunteers that it was able to establish, hold onto and far exceed the efforts of the County party.
I can also tell you that out of the many many volunteers that I have worked with and talked to that they were not interesting in working within the county Democratic Party structure. Many of them were first time voters whether young or old who were motivated by the promise of Obama solely. A number of these volunteers where disillusioned with the Democratic party for years having voted for Nader previously and were drawn back in by the promise of Obama. A number of independents felt the same. Not to mention the traditional Dems who while having been a lifelong Dem was pulled that extra step to get active because of President elect Obama.
My sense was that some of the tension was based on the fact that the local party was fighting for its control. I sense and this is nothing more than speculation that some were more motivated by securing the base of power in the local political scene than affecting change in the community.
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Dec/20081214News006.asp
What was missing from the piece and I do not fault the reporter was the positive energy that developed in the break out groups outside of the Policy group. The major instance is the work being done by the Charity / Community Service Group.
In the six weeks since the election this band of people who have worked so hard to change the politics in Washington have also turned their attention to changing the local community for the better. There has been a call to volunteers to assist in the annual "Everybody Eats" thanksgiving day meal hosted by Almeta Crayton of Columbia, a gift drive was organized, coordinated and executed for the Voluntary Action Center vacmo.org. This drive included the work of over a dozen volunteers and collected over a $1,000.00 in gift cards for the areas underprivileged for Holiday gifts. Now the Charity / Community Service group is turning their attention to assisting in the area of home heating cost and weatherproofing.
As a person who has been involved in this process from early on I can state that there may have been some missteps in communication along the way. That being said, we are volunteers with true intentions of making something positive of this moment in time. We may not be the best at setting a meeting agenda, but just look at what we accomplished when we put our energy toward a shared goal. Regarding the tension in the meeting, to be blunt the vast majority of tension originated from people who were not necessarily active in the Obama Campaign for Change. These were people more likely part of the established Democratic county organization. There has been tension with this group ever since the Obama campaign came to town and established itself independently of the county party. From my understanding this is an issue every four years and was probably even worse this time around because the Obama camp was so successful in fundraising and gathering volunteers that it was able to establish, hold onto and far exceed the efforts of the County party.
I can also tell you that out of the many many volunteers that I have worked with and talked to that they were not interesting in working within the county Democratic Party structure. Many of them were first time voters whether young or old who were motivated by the promise of Obama solely. A number of these volunteers where disillusioned with the Democratic party for years having voted for Nader previously and were drawn back in by the promise of Obama. A number of independents felt the same. Not to mention the traditional Dems who while having been a lifelong Dem was pulled that extra step to get active because of President elect Obama.
My sense was that some of the tension was based on the fact that the local party was fighting for its control. I sense and this is nothing more than speculation that some were more motivated by securing the base of power in the local political scene than affecting change in the community.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The hits just just keep on coming
Click on the "Start Reading" button to access. The New York Times "Top Ideas" of 2008.
Start Reading.
Start Reading.
Continuing with the Top 10
Continuing the theme of "year in review" I present to you the Top 10 Worst Predictions of 2008.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4569&print=1
I would have to say that I am most excited about No. 7 being wrong.
Seeing William Kristol wrong on No. 1 and Charles Krauthammer wrong on No. 9 is reassuring as well.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4569&print=1
I would have to say that I am most excited about No. 7 being wrong.
"These events have the potential to fundamentally alter matter and destroy our planet.”
Seeing William Kristol wrong on No. 1 and Charles Krauthammer wrong on No. 9 is reassuring as well.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Top 10 of Everything
As corny as this may sound I have always and still look forward to the variuos year end reviews. Time mag. is out with their Top 10 of Everything. With this having been a Presidential election year fortunately it is heavy with politics. Even more fortunately it is heavy with alot of other stuff as well.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2008/top10
While we are at it this is a site displaying daily offering of the best of LIFE mag. pictures.
http://bestoflife.tumblr.com/
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2008/top10
While we are at it this is a site displaying daily offering of the best of LIFE mag. pictures.
http://bestoflife.tumblr.com/
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Who Knew?
A couple of thoughts. I know very little about Peter Schiff and this video was edited to show the highlights of his commentary. That being said, one has to appreciate the prescience of his forecasting. Secondly the arrogance of the other commentators is horrific. Admittedly this is television and such brashness makes for good tv. As a result in the end it works to make Schiff come off all that much more of a level headed adult vs. an optimistic cheerleader.
Also thinking in retrospect how many people intuitively knew he was right but chose to accept the more optimistic path. I take no glee in the fact that the economy is in the toilet, as matter of fact it is hitting too close to home for comfort. That being said it is interesting watching so many Fox News personnel be so arrogant and so wrong. Especially Arthur Laffer. He is the gentleman who established the Laffer Curve http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp?viewed=1. The Laffer Curve is the basis for the "trickle down" economics philosophy of Reagen and Bush. It would be more gratifying watching these lowlights of his ,if it weren't for so many people suffering.
Also thinking in retrospect how many people intuitively knew he was right but chose to accept the more optimistic path. I take no glee in the fact that the economy is in the toilet, as matter of fact it is hitting too close to home for comfort. That being said it is interesting watching so many Fox News personnel be so arrogant and so wrong. Especially Arthur Laffer. He is the gentleman who established the Laffer Curve http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp?viewed=1. The Laffer Curve is the basis for the "trickle down" economics philosophy of Reagen and Bush. It would be more gratifying watching these lowlights of his ,if it weren't for so many people suffering.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Won't get fooled again, Part Deux
I have addressed the attempt to deligitimize the Obama election by John Ziegler through his project Howobamagotelected.com. Nate Silver has called him out and made him answer a number of questions. A couple of notes, first Ziegler is a talk radio personality and has a number of traits that work well in that medium, such as publicity through confrontation. While Silver is doing a good job of coronering Ziegler from an Objective position, Zieglers audience isn't necessarily moved by the objective. Secondly, Silver made an initial mistake in his haste to call out the Ziegler survey. He used the term as a push poll. That may not have been the most appropriate term. Ziegler is trying to use that faux pas as a way to undermine the other very objective criticisms Silver is making.
Ziegler is out with a second poll to "answer the left" although this may be a marketing way to keep the story fresh. The crosstabs of the new poll by Wilson Research is here http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/ziegler_news-coverage-survey_xtabs2_081125.pdf
from perusing their blog they appear to be a rightish anti media organization.
You can also see Silver and Ziegler debate on Breitbart.tv here
I have taken a few minutes to go over the crosstabs and a number of my previous suspicsions seem to hold up. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/wont-be-fooled-again.html
The biggest point is that the more recent a story is the greater the chance the voter got it correct. The best example of this were the questions pertaining to Sarah Palin all three questions were stories that broke within the last 6 - 7 weeks of the campaign. More interesting, and one won't see this promoted by Ziegler, There was great similarity between Obama voters and McCain voters.
Pregnant daughter Obama voters 94% McCain voters 94%
150K Clothes Obama voters 82% McCain voters 82%
Russia from House Obama voters 83% McCain voters 75%
All events became news relatively late in the cycle. Doesn't appear to matter who the voter voted for. Now note the 8 % difference between McCain and Obama voters. This appears to be abou the midrange level of difference when the question in unflattering to one side or the other.
McCain Houses Obama voters 77% McCAin voters 70%
McCain / Keating Obama voters 49% McCAin voters 42%
Two notes 1) see the 7% difference between Obama voters and McCain voters on these questions that are negative toward McCain. Similiar to the 8% the Palin question above.
More striking notice there is a 27% difference regardless of the voters on the two questions. The first question was an event that occurred nearly 20 years ago the other in mid August this year. The 70 - 77% correct rates are comparable to the response rates of the Palin questions all of which occurred in the same time frame.
Questions on Biden
Obama tested Obama voters 50% McCain 60%
Plaigerism Obama voters 27% McCain 33%
Again two notes questions negative toward Biden. McCain voters get it correct by 7 - 10 % more than Obama voters. Very consistent with questions regarding Palin and McCain in reverse. Also note the 23% and 27% difference in correct responses on the current question versus the older question.
The questions on Obama are a little bit more hazy. However there is one clear distinction. Regarding the question of "spreading the wealth"
Obama voters 81% McCain voters 87%
Again we are looking at a 6 point spread with the candidates supporters slightly underperforming. This statement came out in the last few weeks of the campaing. Questions re: Obama dating from earlier in the year and a decade past had correct responses much lower. With the exception the Bill Ayers question which has its own issues that can be addressed seperately.
The results of these two surveys may infact be interesting, but probably not what the author intended or will promote. First voters on these particular questions tend to do about 8% better on questions that frame the opposing candidate in a negative light. One can speculate that negative information is more readily remembered when it reinforces an image or narrative that is already accepted. I am not sure one can speculate much. The secondly clearly indicates that these voters both Obama and McCain had much better recall regarding incidents that are more current.
I am not certain either of these conclusions can be considered to earth shattering, interesting yes.
Ziegler is out with a second poll to "answer the left" although this may be a marketing way to keep the story fresh. The crosstabs of the new poll by Wilson Research is here http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/ziegler_news-coverage-survey_xtabs2_081125.pdf
from perusing their blog they appear to be a rightish anti media organization.
You can also see Silver and Ziegler debate on Breitbart.tv here
I have taken a few minutes to go over the crosstabs and a number of my previous suspicsions seem to hold up. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/wont-be-fooled-again.html
The biggest point is that the more recent a story is the greater the chance the voter got it correct. The best example of this were the questions pertaining to Sarah Palin all three questions were stories that broke within the last 6 - 7 weeks of the campaign. More interesting, and one won't see this promoted by Ziegler, There was great similarity between Obama voters and McCain voters.
Pregnant daughter Obama voters 94% McCain voters 94%
150K Clothes Obama voters 82% McCain voters 82%
Russia from House Obama voters 83% McCain voters 75%
All events became news relatively late in the cycle. Doesn't appear to matter who the voter voted for. Now note the 8 % difference between McCain and Obama voters. This appears to be abou the midrange level of difference when the question in unflattering to one side or the other.
McCain Houses Obama voters 77% McCAin voters 70%
McCain / Keating Obama voters 49% McCAin voters 42%
Two notes 1) see the 7% difference between Obama voters and McCain voters on these questions that are negative toward McCain. Similiar to the 8% the Palin question above.
More striking notice there is a 27% difference regardless of the voters on the two questions. The first question was an event that occurred nearly 20 years ago the other in mid August this year. The 70 - 77% correct rates are comparable to the response rates of the Palin questions all of which occurred in the same time frame.
Questions on Biden
Obama tested Obama voters 50% McCain 60%
Plaigerism Obama voters 27% McCain 33%
Again two notes questions negative toward Biden. McCain voters get it correct by 7 - 10 % more than Obama voters. Very consistent with questions regarding Palin and McCain in reverse. Also note the 23% and 27% difference in correct responses on the current question versus the older question.
The questions on Obama are a little bit more hazy. However there is one clear distinction. Regarding the question of "spreading the wealth"
Obama voters 81% McCain voters 87%
Again we are looking at a 6 point spread with the candidates supporters slightly underperforming. This statement came out in the last few weeks of the campaing. Questions re: Obama dating from earlier in the year and a decade past had correct responses much lower. With the exception the Bill Ayers question which has its own issues that can be addressed seperately.
The results of these two surveys may infact be interesting, but probably not what the author intended or will promote. First voters on these particular questions tend to do about 8% better on questions that frame the opposing candidate in a negative light. One can speculate that negative information is more readily remembered when it reinforces an image or narrative that is already accepted. I am not sure one can speculate much. The secondly clearly indicates that these voters both Obama and McCain had much better recall regarding incidents that are more current.
I am not certain either of these conclusions can be considered to earth shattering, interesting yes.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
60, not so important
I have spent a fair amount of time discussing the Obama Administration planning on governing with more than just a Democratic caucus. I have mentioned it here http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/12/ga-runoff.html and here http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/liebermans-demo-what.html and elsewhere. I have even been called out by others over at Dailykos as to who are the moderates than I have been speaking of.
Well our good buddy Nate (ok, I don't really know him) breaks down who lies in this broad middle ground that will be necessary for passing the agenda that the Obama Administration will be laying out.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/who-are-swing-senators.html
He does a great job of itemizing the various Senators and their relative standings. These are probably going to be the names we hear about a lot for the next two years, at least from the Senate.
Well our good buddy Nate (ok, I don't really know him) breaks down who lies in this broad middle ground that will be necessary for passing the agenda that the Obama Administration will be laying out.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/who-are-swing-senators.html
He does a great job of itemizing the various Senators and their relative standings. These are probably going to be the names we hear about a lot for the next two years, at least from the Senate.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
GA runoff
Saxby Chambliss wins the GA senate runoff. Hopes for 60 senate seats are gone. As far as Obama is concerned this is probably an ok thing. One will notice that President Elect Obama did not put too much of his political capital into this contest. The calculation is that it would have lowered his status to a campaigning politician as opposed to a coalition building President. Also there is probably a good chance that Martin would have lost even with Obama's presence. There was no reason to tarnish or diminish Obama's accomplishment for one Senate seat. I have stated before in reacting to the Lieberman situation that Obama is not simply attempting to govern by keeping the Democratic Congress in lock step. There are a few good reasons why.
You are going to see that on certain areas it is going to be ok for Democratic congress persons to break away from the caucus and represent their constituents which might not always directly align with the Democratic caucus as a whole. This is probably true for a number of southern and rural members of Congress. He will, however, expect very strong support on the majority of the areas that they are in agreement.
Secondly President elect Obama is going to play for the center of the Congress. He is expecting to do big things and he will need support from the moderates on both side of the aisle.
Lastly, if this administration gets no buy in from any of the Republican caucus then there is no shared sense of responsibility. With buy in from certain portions of the Republican Party they will take on ownership to a certain extent. With ownership comes a responsibility to see that the governing is successful.
You are going to see that on certain areas it is going to be ok for Democratic congress persons to break away from the caucus and represent their constituents which might not always directly align with the Democratic caucus as a whole. This is probably true for a number of southern and rural members of Congress. He will, however, expect very strong support on the majority of the areas that they are in agreement.
Secondly President elect Obama is going to play for the center of the Congress. He is expecting to do big things and he will need support from the moderates on both side of the aisle.
Lastly, if this administration gets no buy in from any of the Republican caucus then there is no shared sense of responsibility. With buy in from certain portions of the Republican Party they will take on ownership to a certain extent. With ownership comes a responsibility to see that the governing is successful.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
How do the numbers stack up
Believe or not there are plenty of dorks in the world still pouring over the numbers from the election. The leading dork is Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com. He has recently broke down Obama's vote total as a precent of total population in an attempt to compare for scale of victory. The results are quite impressive for Obama and his supporters. It appears that Obama's vote total was roughly 22% only to be beaten by Reagen (in his reelection bid of 1984). I have post previously that Eisenhower was the only real first term to securing a higher percentage of the vote.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/few-notes-from-history.html
Using this comarison carries a number of issues to be aware of. Through the years the voting base has expanded. African Americans got the vote in the late 1870's, Women, then African Americans got true access to the ballot box (especially in the south), then 18 - 20 years old got the vote.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/few-notes-from-history.html
Using this comarison carries a number of issues to be aware of. Through the years the voting base has expanded. African Americans got the vote in the late 1870's, Women, then African Americans got true access to the ballot box (especially in the south), then 18 - 20 years old got the vote.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/population-and-popular-vote.html
Chew on this.
Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes: “I like paying taxes. With them I buy civilization.”
On the day after thanksgiving this is an interesting sentiment to consider. Of all the things that we are thankful for here in America, how many of them are made possible by our taxes.
On the day after thanksgiving this is an interesting sentiment to consider. Of all the things that we are thankful for here in America, how many of them are made possible by our taxes.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Branching out.
I have started an additional endeavor. This time less political and less opinionated.
shttp://sixdegreesofblogging.blogspot.com/. This is focused more a variety of interesting (or not) links compiled by a loose network of people. Check it out from time to time to find some cool stuff.
shttp://sixdegreesofblogging.blogspot.com/. This is focused more a variety of interesting (or not) links compiled by a loose network of people. Check it out from time to time to find some cool stuff.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Hmm. What do we do now?
Article 1 US Constituion
Section 6. The Senators and Representatives shall receive a compensation for their services, to be ascertained by law, and paid out of the treasury of the United States. They shall in all cases, except treason, felony and breach of the peace, be privileged from arrest during their attendance at the session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any speech or debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other place.
No Senator or Representative shall, during the time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil office under the authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time: and no person holding any office under the United States, shall be a member of either House during his continuance in office.
According to this reading of the Constitution Senator Hillary Clinton would be unable to assume the position of Sec. of State. This is due to the fact that Congress raised the salary for Secretary of State this past January while Clinton was indeed a Senator.
It appears this is not the first time this has occurred and is rather common.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Guessing Game
President elect Obama is facing the double edged sword of Washington. He is being both praised and criticised for his administration picks so far. Depending on who you are hearing either he is undercutting any message of change by bringing back old players in new roles. Or he is doing a very responsible job of putting strong people in key positions.
I have touched on this previously but I am not certain where. First and foremost President Obama and his agenda is the change and this is also combined by the forces of the millions of volunteers that worked to get him elected. The number of people he is bringing in are there to advance this change, to ensure that the agenda has the best possible chance of being enacted.
In the previous post I had mentioned that a mistake that Carter made in coming to Washington was bringing in too many outsiders who did not know how to work the corridors of power in Washington. Any of the major challenges that an Obama will encounter will require a congressional partnership. He is assembling a team that he feels give the American people the best chance of besting these challenges. Tom Daschle former Senate Majority leader, Rahm Emmanuel former House Majority Whip, Joe Biden one of the longest serving members of the Senate. He has selected people who know that ways of Washington but also the people who have not been corrupted by the ways of Washington.
John Harwood has a piece that speaks to this in the New York Times in which Chief White House Adviser David Axelrod sums it up best.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/weekinreview/23harwood.html?_r=2&hp
I have touched on this previously but I am not certain where. First and foremost President Obama and his agenda is the change and this is also combined by the forces of the millions of volunteers that worked to get him elected. The number of people he is bringing in are there to advance this change, to ensure that the agenda has the best possible chance of being enacted.
In the previous post I had mentioned that a mistake that Carter made in coming to Washington was bringing in too many outsiders who did not know how to work the corridors of power in Washington. Any of the major challenges that an Obama will encounter will require a congressional partnership. He is assembling a team that he feels give the American people the best chance of besting these challenges. Tom Daschle former Senate Majority leader, Rahm Emmanuel former House Majority Whip, Joe Biden one of the longest serving members of the Senate. He has selected people who know that ways of Washington but also the people who have not been corrupted by the ways of Washington.
John Harwood has a piece that speaks to this in the New York Times in which Chief White House Adviser David Axelrod sums it up best.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/weekinreview/23harwood.html?_r=2&hp
“He’s not looking for people to give him a vision,” said Mr. Axelrod, who will be a senior White House adviser. “He’s going to put together an administration of people who can effectuate his vision.”
Friday, November 21, 2008
Role Playing
You be the judge. Follow the link to Minnesota Public Radio. You can be the judge regarding voters intent on challenged ballots in the Minnesota recount.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/
Which Coleman is currently leading by about 136 votes.
Check out this video of challenged ballots. I am not going to suggest that the Franken camp is not doing something similiar, I simply don't know but it is apparent that the Coleman campaign is attempting to increase the number of challenged ballots. One theory is to make sure that Franken doesn't overtake him in the recount. That way if his lead is overturned by "challenged ballots" it will somehow delegitimize the outcome and find a grounds to take the decision to court.
As I have mentioned in a previous post http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/recount
Republicans have learned the importance of perception of these battles.
It worked effectively in 2000 for Bush, silghtly less so in 2004 for Rossi -WA gov. race. The Franken campaign is doing the best it can to fight Colemans narrative. One by releasing this video which may or may not be part of the official Franken campaign. The Franken camp is also going on the offensive in shaping the narrative by releasing their own tally regarding where the recount stands.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/franken_camps_claim_weve_cut_c.php
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/
Which Coleman is currently leading by about 136 votes.
Check out this video of challenged ballots. I am not going to suggest that the Franken camp is not doing something similiar, I simply don't know but it is apparent that the Coleman campaign is attempting to increase the number of challenged ballots. One theory is to make sure that Franken doesn't overtake him in the recount. That way if his lead is overturned by "challenged ballots" it will somehow delegitimize the outcome and find a grounds to take the decision to court.
As I have mentioned in a previous post http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/11/recount
Republicans have learned the importance of perception of these battles.
What is going to happen is the candidate with the initial lead is going to claim victory and refute all other counts. The leading side will accuse any election official who does not side with them in stopping the legally defined and required process as untrustworthy (which is what happened to Sam Reed (R) in Washington state).
It worked effectively in 2000 for Bush, silghtly less so in 2004 for Rossi -WA gov. race. The Franken campaign is doing the best it can to fight Colemans narrative. One by releasing this video which may or may not be part of the official Franken campaign. The Franken camp is also going on the offensive in shaping the narrative by releasing their own tally regarding where the recount stands.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/franken_camps_claim_weve_cut_c.php
Won't get fooled again
Editors Note: This article may be more effective if reader clicks on link http://howobamagotelected.com/ and view the information before reading this post.
It has often been said that reading the blogs is like getting the newspaper a few days early. There is a story unfolding before our eyes that will shortly make its way to main stream America in one form or another.
http://howobamagotelected.com/
The above link is a website for a John Ziegler. His contention is that the ONLY reason Obama was elected was due the media influence. (As you can imagine as a person who volunteered over a couple hundred hours I tend to disagree with this statement.) The subtext of his thesis is that Obama supporters are stupid.
Ziegler is working on a documentary to show his point. He has posted a youtube video of several Obama supporters being asked several questions. He then went on to commission a poll by Zogby to prove his point. The first question that comes to mind. Aren't polls supposed to find out information, not to prove information.
As you can imagine the voters in the video and the poll come off looking embarrassingly bad. As you can also imagine their is serious context missing in both. I have formulated my own criticisms of this poll and set out to do this post and have come across a couple of postings that have summarized them as well.
The first problem is that the discrepancy in the , which may not be apparent at first but once it is realized it is pretty obvious. The unflattering questions about McCain and Palin are all events that have occurred in the last 3 months. Meanwhile the questions that Obama supporters got wrong were from 1987 and 1998 and Jan. of this year. Secondly a number of the questions presented as facts about Obama and Biden are questionable interpretations of events. There were a couple of questions that were recent, such as who said they wanted to redistribute the . 81% got that question correct. One can see taht the voters got the questions correct when the event was recent. The voters got the questions wrong when the subject was far removed. Ironically, or not so much, there were no questions about events in the distant past about McCain or Palin such as McCain cheating on his first wife, or being a womanizer, or his involvement with Charles Keating. Likewise there were no questions about Sarah Palin that dated prior to the Republican convention.
Here is a big problem with Ziegler's contention. He presents this information as a fact that the main stream media was so biased toward Obama that it caused him to win. I am not a scientist, nor do I play one on the web. But something seems to be missing in his poll questions. There are no attempts to ascertain where any of the voters received their information about any of the candidates. There is one giant leap of faith taken on his part. There is no way to tie a result (one that is totally invalid to begin with) to a cause.
I have spent the time on this because many on the right began long ago trying to delegitimize this election. Whether it is Obama can't serve because he wasn't born in America, Acorn stole the election, the media was biased, Obama supporters are stupid. Ziegler's efforts are going to be one more attempt to delegitimize the voice of the American people (67 million). Fortunately times have changed there is an aggressive progressive community out there fighting back against empty lies. As a result Zogby has already walked back from their support of this poll. Ziegler has had to spend much time defending this poll.(Although he is getting media attention for his project). I suggest everyone take the time to read the links below. One is a transcript from an interview with Nate Silver of 538.com, one is objective analysis from the Wall Street Journal.
Not this time. That was a common refrain from the stump for President elect Obama and it is a battle cry. We are not going to fall for it, Not this time. We are not going to let myths and half truths carry the day, Not this time. We are not going to be intimidated, Not this time.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogbys_misleading_knowledge_te.php
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/zogbys-misleading-poll-of-obama-voters-459/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/interview-with-john-ziegler-on-zogby.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/zogby-engages-in-apparent-push-polling.html
It has often been said that reading the blogs is like getting the newspaper a few days early. There is a story unfolding before our eyes that will shortly make its way to main stream America in one form or another.
http://howobamagotelected.com/
The above link is a website for a John Ziegler. His contention is that the ONLY reason Obama was elected was due the media influence. (As you can imagine as a person who volunteered over a couple hundred hours I tend to disagree with this statement.) The subtext of his thesis is that Obama supporters are stupid.
Ziegler is working on a documentary to show his point. He has posted a youtube video of several Obama supporters being asked several questions. He then went on to commission a poll by Zogby to prove his point. The first question that comes to mind. Aren't polls supposed to find out information, not to prove information.
As you can imagine the voters in the video and the poll come off looking embarrassingly bad. As you can also imagine their is serious context missing in both. I have formulated my own criticisms of this poll and set out to do this post and have come across a couple of postings that have summarized them as well.
The first problem is that the discrepancy in the , which may not be apparent at first but once it is realized it is pretty obvious. The unflattering questions about McCain and Palin are all events that have occurred in the last 3 months. Meanwhile the questions that Obama supporters got wrong were from 1987 and 1998 and Jan. of this year. Secondly a number of the questions presented as facts about Obama and Biden are questionable interpretations of events. There were a couple of questions that were recent, such as who said they wanted to redistribute the . 81% got that question correct. One can see taht the voters got the questions correct when the event was recent. The voters got the questions wrong when the subject was far removed. Ironically, or not so much, there were no questions about events in the distant past about McCain or Palin such as McCain cheating on his first wife, or being a womanizer, or his involvement with Charles Keating. Likewise there were no questions about Sarah Palin that dated prior to the Republican convention.
Here is a big problem with Ziegler's contention. He presents this information as a fact that the main stream media was so biased toward Obama that it caused him to win. I am not a scientist, nor do I play one on the web. But something seems to be missing in his poll questions. There are no attempts to ascertain where any of the voters received their information about any of the candidates. There is one giant leap of faith taken on his part. There is no way to tie a result (one that is totally invalid to begin with) to a cause.
I have spent the time on this because many on the right began long ago trying to delegitimize this election. Whether it is Obama can't serve because he wasn't born in America, Acorn stole the election, the media was biased, Obama supporters are stupid. Ziegler's efforts are going to be one more attempt to delegitimize the voice of the American people (67 million). Fortunately times have changed there is an aggressive progressive community out there fighting back against empty lies. As a result Zogby has already walked back from their support of this poll. Ziegler has had to spend much time defending this poll.(Although he is getting media attention for his project). I suggest everyone take the time to read the links below. One is a transcript from an interview with Nate Silver of 538.com, one is objective analysis from the Wall Street Journal.
Not this time. That was a common refrain from the stump for President elect Obama and it is a battle cry. We are not going to fall for it, Not this time. We are not going to let myths and half truths carry the day, Not this time. We are not going to be intimidated, Not this time.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogbys_misleading_knowledge_te.php
The Zogby summary quotes Ziegler claiming that "the poll really proves beyond any doubt the stunning level of malpractice on the part of the media in not educating the Obama portion of the voting populace."
The problem, as Silver points out, is that the survey does no such thing.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/zogbys-misleading-poll-of-obama-voters-459/
Ziegler agreed that people may have done worst on questions referring to older events. “I think that that’s true, and I think that’s part of the reason there was a disparity there,” he said. “It also goes to the point that the news media ignored the history of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.” When asked why he didn’t include questions referring to unfavorable aspects of McCain’s and Palin’s distant past, he said, “I felt that these were the best 12 for what I was trying to accomplish.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/interview-with-john-ziegler-on-zogby.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/zogby-engages-in-apparent-push-polling.html
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Jansens go to Washington
Editorial Note: please be advised of graphic language, not suitable for children. All vulgarity intended for comic effect.
My wife surprised me tonight by agreeing to go to Washingon DC with me for the inaugiration in January. I may be wrong, but I think this is going to be a truly historic event. Estimates are coming in at 4 million people attending. I am certain we will be no where near the true event, but we will be there.
We are celebrating with a fine bottle of wine from Chateau ste. Michelle. A 1996 reserve bottle of Merlot. I know I said I wasn't drinking any "fucking merlot"http://www.snooth.com/wine/chateau-ste-michelle-merlot-reserve-1996/.
However this is good shit. We are pairing this with some maytag blue cheesehttp://www.maytagdairyfarms.com/aspx/welcome.aspx and some finely sliced dry salami.
The only thing that could make this better is spending it with true friends that made this happen. I can still remember two specific events from election night. First when some one announced that Obama had carried Pennsylvania. Mentally I knew that was it. If Obama won PA he would win the election. Second when the announcement came across that Barack Obama was in fact our President elect. No matter how good a bottle of wine, or a cup of coffee is it is always better with friends.
PS. this might be my first blog while I am under the influence. And there is nothing better than true friends.
I
My wife surprised me tonight by agreeing to go to Washingon DC with me for the inaugiration in January. I may be wrong, but I think this is going to be a truly historic event. Estimates are coming in at 4 million people attending. I am certain we will be no where near the true event, but we will be there.
We are celebrating with a fine bottle of wine from Chateau ste. Michelle. A 1996 reserve bottle of Merlot. I know I said I wasn't drinking any "fucking merlot"http://www.snooth.com/wine/chateau-ste-michelle-merlot-reserve-1996/.
However this is good shit. We are pairing this with some maytag blue cheesehttp://www.maytagdairyfarms.com/aspx/welcome.aspx and some finely sliced dry salami.
The only thing that could make this better is spending it with true friends that made this happen. I can still remember two specific events from election night. First when some one announced that Obama had carried Pennsylvania. Mentally I knew that was it. If Obama won PA he would win the election. Second when the announcement came across that Barack Obama was in fact our President elect. No matter how good a bottle of wine, or a cup of coffee is it is always better with friends.
PS. this might be my first blog while I am under the influence. And there is nothing better than true friends.
I
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Lieberman's a Demo-what?
Bad day for the left,which I usually consider myself.
http://kos.dailykos.com/
Lieberman's a democrat and Hillary may be Sec. of State. I understand their current contempt, especially with the Lieberman deal. The left fought and fought hard for this victory. This is a victory they were told they were apart of and they own a piece of it. Lieberman more than anyone spit in their face all the way along. They despise this guy, even more than McCain whose motives were understandable if not appreciated.
The current wrath is being aimed at the "spineless democratic caucus". That is easy everyone hates congress just not their congress person. I am guessing that a big piece of the "blame" falls upon Pres. elect Obama's shoulders. While he is fairly moderate in nature he is going to address the nations ills with bold moves. It is not his intent to address all the issues that face us with half steps and measured enthusiasm. It is not in his interest to barely squeak bills through. It is not his intent to simply lead by simply keeping the Democratic caucus in lock step through coercion and persuasion. He is after broader support which is going to require moderate Dems and Repubs alike.
He has worked in the Senate long enough to know not every Dem or Repub is going to agree on every issues. As a result you are going to lose support of some Dems on certain issues say immigration reform, or climate control. You will need to pick up that support of those Repubs that happen to be moderate on such issues. In a way it harkens back to the regionalism of the maps we were discussing yesterday. There are probably some dem senators in the south east that have much more conservative view on immigration than a number of Rep senators from the southwest. He might find some help from the few remaining Northeast Repubs on issues as judicial appointments.
Pres. Elect Obama has a wide number of issues he wants to address and will need the broadest pool of support possible to draw from. Therefore, I believe the Lieberman vote was a result of signals sent from Obama's team. It was not about keeping that one vote in the Democratic fold. It was about sending signals to a broad spectrum of moderates in the Senate. The message is that there are going to be times that you may have to disagree with me for personal or political reasons. That's okay. We are going to need you and your leadership on the areas that we do agree on. It signals to Republicans that tend to agree with him on certain issues that they will not be used as a political pawns.
It is not his intent to govern as Bush has for the past 8 years. Get in line or else. This administration will not be solely about loyalty and discipline. It will be about coalion building and governing. That is change the left should be able to get behind.
Although I still don't like Lieberman and we'll be keeping an eye on him.
P.S. I think after the last few days of media coverage on the Hillary for S of S. it is pretty clear why Obama did not pick her for VP.
http://kos.dailykos.com/
Lieberman's a democrat and Hillary may be Sec. of State. I understand their current contempt, especially with the Lieberman deal. The left fought and fought hard for this victory. This is a victory they were told they were apart of and they own a piece of it. Lieberman more than anyone spit in their face all the way along. They despise this guy, even more than McCain whose motives were understandable if not appreciated.
The current wrath is being aimed at the "spineless democratic caucus". That is easy everyone hates congress just not their congress person. I am guessing that a big piece of the "blame" falls upon Pres. elect Obama's shoulders. While he is fairly moderate in nature he is going to address the nations ills with bold moves. It is not his intent to address all the issues that face us with half steps and measured enthusiasm. It is not in his interest to barely squeak bills through. It is not his intent to simply lead by simply keeping the Democratic caucus in lock step through coercion and persuasion. He is after broader support which is going to require moderate Dems and Repubs alike.
He has worked in the Senate long enough to know not every Dem or Repub is going to agree on every issues. As a result you are going to lose support of some Dems on certain issues say immigration reform, or climate control. You will need to pick up that support of those Repubs that happen to be moderate on such issues. In a way it harkens back to the regionalism of the maps we were discussing yesterday. There are probably some dem senators in the south east that have much more conservative view on immigration than a number of Rep senators from the southwest. He might find some help from the few remaining Northeast Repubs on issues as judicial appointments.
Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and John Kerry, D-Mass., were among those speaking in his favor, according to a Democratic aide requiring anonymity to discuss a private meeting.
Updated: Dick Durbin goes to the heart of the point. There is no one that Obama owes more for his political life than Senator Durbin. Couple this with the fact that as Whip it is Durbin's job to round up votes for the Democratic caucus speak to point made in this post.
Pres. Elect Obama has a wide number of issues he wants to address and will need the broadest pool of support possible to draw from. Therefore, I believe the Lieberman vote was a result of signals sent from Obama's team. It was not about keeping that one vote in the Democratic fold. It was about sending signals to a broad spectrum of moderates in the Senate. The message is that there are going to be times that you may have to disagree with me for personal or political reasons. That's okay. We are going to need you and your leadership on the areas that we do agree on. It signals to Republicans that tend to agree with him on certain issues that they will not be used as a political pawns.
It is not his intent to govern as Bush has for the past 8 years. Get in line or else. This administration will not be solely about loyalty and discipline. It will be about coalion building and governing. That is change the left should be able to get behind.
Although I still don't like Lieberman and we'll be keeping an eye on him.
P.S. I think after the last few days of media coverage on the Hillary for S of S. it is pretty clear why Obama did not pick her for VP.
Monday, November 17, 2008
I love maps
Not much of an editorial on this. This is an overlay of two maps. One is dated 1860 and one 2008. From 1860 we have a map with the dots signifying cotton production in the south. Each dot equals 2,000 bales of cotton produced. The blue and red map is 2008 presidential election results by county. Blue for Obama red for McCain. The correlation is striking. Of course the common denominator is African Americans. I won't go into much discussions but such a visual raises alot of thoughts on America, it's history, it's future, on how the past effects the present. Even if one takes away the moral implications this is very interesting. The map is courtesy of the fine work over at strange maps.
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2008/11/15/330-from-pickin-cotton-to-pickin-presidents/
After I came across the map above I went looking for the soda vs. pop map. This is a map that I became aware of about 10 years ago. I have always been fascinated by this discussion. I remember having these discussions back in college. This is after all one of the first times that people from around the country mix together and start sharing experiences and mix and mingling culture and their own regionalisms. I actually become aware of this difference much younger. I remember driving about an hour away to my Grandmas house and all my cousins would refer to it as pop, while I had always asked for soda. Sure enough upon examining this map updated last in 2003 I can identify my home county and my Grandma's county and the difference is noted.
It is kind of hard not to notice the regionalism of the soda map. There is a bit of a correlation between the regions marked by these soda vs. pop and voting in Presidential elections. It appears all the above tends to speak to a bit of regionalism that exist in America today.
This last map is of leading church organizations or bodies in the United States. Again a distinct pattern of regionalism persist. Most notably the southeastern portion of the country appears to be most consistent.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
For the love of baseball!!!!
I haven't had much to say about baseball lately. This picture was too much to resist. Cardinal fans, best fans in baseball. Gotta love 'em.
Please save your hate mail. I am just going to delete it.
History near and far
As mentioned below I have been meaning to post about the lessons Pres. Elect Obama has learned from history. I have special interest in the lessons he has taken from the Lincoln Administration. With the speculation of Senator Clinton as Sec. of State we all have heard by now about the book "Team of Rivals". It truly is a fascinating look into the Lincoln Administration, their egos, their faults, their strengths and how they prevailed in the darkest hour of American history. The biggest lesson was his opponents either came to have tremendous respect for and loyalty to him or they were eventually out witted by him.
One more amazing take away was truly his ability to forgive (not necessarily forget) someone of their assaults agains him and move forward.
Another moment was at the convening of the first cabinet meeting. Lincoln was the least experienced and least polished politician going into the room. Custom had been up till this moment for the cabinet to work as committee with a democratic vote taken on the issues. Lincoln had no of that. He encouraged opinions by all but asked for no vote. He made the decision and it was his to live with. The cabinet members walked out of that room with a totally differenct opinion than when they walked in.
Notes about the clip above.
Is it sad I was watching that debate live when it happened? (I mean Dec. 07 like 22
months before the election.)
This was about the peak of the Clinton meltdown and Obama's rise.
The Philadelphia debate where Clinton spent the whole night
trying not to answer questions. Especially the one regarding
New York State's proposal to grant driver's licenses to illegal aliens.
This debate where she came off pretty much like she did in this exchange.
Obama delivers his address at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa that
ignited the room and told everybody that this guy has a chance of toppling
the Clinton machine in Iowa.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
A few notes from History
As I mentioned earlier it is time for me to move onto my next obsession. Either marathon running or mountain climbing will require me to get back into shape. So I started running again this week and things have gone well so far.
On this mornings run a few items of history came to me. So here they are.
For those old enough in the audience, can you name the last time conservatives had a young, good looking, dim witted losing vice-presidential candidate that was sure to be the future of the Republican Party?........Times up. One clue - potatoe
I believe President elect Obama to be a student of history. He doesn't necessary look to history for the answers but the lessons. Here are a few he appears to have learned.
1976 Jimmy Carter was elected as an outsider to clean up Washington. A couple of the problems he ran into in governing was a Democratic congress that challenged him and bringing in a bunch of outsiders that did not know how to work Washington.
Jump to 2008 Pres. elect Obama has been brought in to change Washington and he again has a Democratic congress. A couple of interesting things present themselves. Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff. I believe he is an excellent pick on many fronts but here are a few extra. As the leader of the DCCC that brought in scores of new Democratic members of the House in 2006 and 2008 he knows these members and they owe him. In addition being having been a member of the House Democratic leadership he has strong working relationships with both the Democratic and Republican leadership.
VP elect Joe Biden's extensive experience in the Senate has crafted long standing relationships with Senators on both sides of the aisle.
Obama is being watched closely because he is bringing back members of the former Clinton administration, is this Change. The thing to remember, he is the prime focus of the change and most importantly it is the policies that need changing. He knows to effectively bring about change of the end results you have to know how to get in there and work the system. After all the Constitution did establish the government on a basis of three separate and equal branches of government.
Landslide ? Mandate? - you decide.
Obama 2008 52.7%
Bush II 2000 47.9%
Clinton 1992 43%
Bush I 1988 53.4%
Reagan 1980 50.7%
Carter 1976 50.1%
Nixon 1968 43.4%
Kennedy 1960 49.7%
Eisenhower 1952 55.2%
This is a listing of popular vote of the first term of every President dating back to 1952. As you can see the only Presidents to perform better were Bush I and Eisenhower. Bush had the advantage of running for Reagan's third term and Eisenhower was of course a well known general by the time he ran.
That leads to some of the lessons learned from his study of Lincoln and his administration which I will have to address at a later time.
On this mornings run a few items of history came to me. So here they are.
For those old enough in the audience, can you name the last time conservatives had a young, good looking, dim witted losing vice-presidential candidate that was sure to be the future of the Republican Party?........Times up. One clue - potatoe
I believe President elect Obama to be a student of history. He doesn't necessary look to history for the answers but the lessons. Here are a few he appears to have learned.
1976 Jimmy Carter was elected as an outsider to clean up Washington. A couple of the problems he ran into in governing was a Democratic congress that challenged him and bringing in a bunch of outsiders that did not know how to work Washington.
Jump to 2008 Pres. elect Obama has been brought in to change Washington and he again has a Democratic congress. A couple of interesting things present themselves. Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff. I believe he is an excellent pick on many fronts but here are a few extra. As the leader of the DCCC that brought in scores of new Democratic members of the House in 2006 and 2008 he knows these members and they owe him. In addition being having been a member of the House Democratic leadership he has strong working relationships with both the Democratic and Republican leadership.
VP elect Joe Biden's extensive experience in the Senate has crafted long standing relationships with Senators on both sides of the aisle.
Obama is being watched closely because he is bringing back members of the former Clinton administration, is this Change. The thing to remember, he is the prime focus of the change and most importantly it is the policies that need changing. He knows to effectively bring about change of the end results you have to know how to get in there and work the system. After all the Constitution did establish the government on a basis of three separate and equal branches of government.
Landslide ? Mandate? - you decide.
Obama 2008 52.7%
Bush II 2000 47.9%
Clinton 1992 43%
Bush I 1988 53.4%
Reagan 1980 50.7%
Carter 1976 50.1%
Nixon 1968 43.4%
Kennedy 1960 49.7%
Eisenhower 1952 55.2%
This is a listing of popular vote of the first term of every President dating back to 1952. As you can see the only Presidents to perform better were Bush I and Eisenhower. Bush had the advantage of running for Reagan's third term and Eisenhower was of course a well known general by the time he ran.
That leads to some of the lessons learned from his study of Lincoln and his administration which I will have to address at a later time.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Recount Redux... MN Senate Race
Total Votes 2,883,317
error rate .005
possible
number of
errors 14,415
votes that
separate
candidates. 206
I have been watching the Franken - Coleman Senate race with some interest over the past week. This especially interesting to me as I witnessed the recount of the Governors race in Washington State in 2004.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
This race was between Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R).
The "initial results" were reported on Nov. 17 as Rossi leading by 261 votes. Washington state has a law calling for an automatic recount of any election being decided by less than .5%. This is similar to the Minnesota law. The reason the .5% is common is that test have shown that optical voting machines have error rate on average of you guessed it .5%.
The automatic recount was reported on Nov. 24 with Rossi's lead dwindling to 42 votes. Washington state laws allow for the candidate to request one hand or one machine recount. This requires that the candidate puts up a $730,000.00 deposit. If the election is overturned the candidate gets the money refunded. If there is no overturning of the election the candidate forfeits the money and the state uses it to offset the cost of the recount. Gregoire requested the recount and provided the deposit with the assistance of the State Democratic Party.
After much back and forth, name calling, and legal challenges Gregoire prevailed. The final certified vote showed Gregoire winning by 129 votes.
This is going to be the closest example to use to watch the Minnesota recount. What is going to happen is the candidate with the initial lead is going to claim victory and refute all other counts. The leading side will accuse any election official who does not side with them in stopping the legally defined and required process as untrustworthy (which is what happened to Sam Reed (R) in Washington state).
Concepts that are important but little thought about until a situation like these occur. First an election is a process and actually a very long drawn out process. It makes for great TV on election night but that is only the beginning. This seldom occurs to us as most elections are well outside the margin of error. Take for example Missouri's vote for President on election night the difference was reported as 5,900 votes, if you look today it is closer to 4,900 votes. This is a swing of 1,000 votes in a week. Has anyone heard of any complaints or screams of foul play, magical ballots? Yet we pretend to be horrified by a 500 vote difference from election night in MN senatorial race. Guess what the difference is.
The second concept that is easily tossed aside by politicians fighting for their political life is that the vote belongs to the voter. There is an assumption that votes for a politician belong to them. Not so. Those votes belong to the voter who has a right that was won through much blood through many years. The state has an obligation to secure that right for the voter. The voter has a right to vote and for the vote to be counted the state has a responsibility to see that it happens.
We must remember that the optical scanners that are widely used are done so very much for convience. This is fastest possible way to process and calculate votes. This is important to us Americans as we need instant answers. When there is a widely accepted error rate of .5% it is important that those races that are close are scrutinized. This is where the tussle comes. The tension arises in coordinating the integrity of the electoral process and the right to participate in the democracy with our vote. Traditionally the dividing lines fall with the Republicans arguing for the integrity and Democrats arguing for the sanctity of the franchise to vote. It conveniently coincides with the general idea that when more people vote Democrats do better, when fewer people vote Republicans do better. This tension manifests itself on voter intent. That is what we all witnessed down in Florida in 2000. Eyes bulging to examine chads to determine voter intent. On optical scanner it is a little easier to make that determination.
It appears the state of Minnesota has some fairly standard rules for determining voter intent on optical scan ballots. The biggest question that will face scrutiny will be the decision at the local level whether to do a machine recount or a hand recount.
What we are likely to see is pressure at the Republican sections of the state to perform machine recounts and pressure at the Democratic sections of the state to perform hand recounts. This is not just a matter of what suits the candidates interest it goes to the philosophy of voting mentioned above.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/how-does-a-minnesota-recount-work
What to remember going forward. This is going to be messy. Want clean and neat. Dictatorships are clean and efficient, Democracies are messy. These are good people doing the best that they can. If you don't like what is happening. Get involved.
error rate .005
possible
number of
errors 14,415
votes that
separate
candidates. 206
I have been watching the Franken - Coleman Senate race with some interest over the past week. This especially interesting to me as I witnessed the recount of the Governors race in Washington State in 2004.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
This race was between Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R).
The "initial results" were reported on Nov. 17 as Rossi leading by 261 votes. Washington state has a law calling for an automatic recount of any election being decided by less than .5%. This is similar to the Minnesota law. The reason the .5% is common is that test have shown that optical voting machines have error rate on average of you guessed it .5%.
The automatic recount was reported on Nov. 24 with Rossi's lead dwindling to 42 votes. Washington state laws allow for the candidate to request one hand or one machine recount. This requires that the candidate puts up a $730,000.00 deposit. If the election is overturned the candidate gets the money refunded. If there is no overturning of the election the candidate forfeits the money and the state uses it to offset the cost of the recount. Gregoire requested the recount and provided the deposit with the assistance of the State Democratic Party.
After much back and forth, name calling, and legal challenges Gregoire prevailed. The final certified vote showed Gregoire winning by 129 votes.
This is going to be the closest example to use to watch the Minnesota recount. What is going to happen is the candidate with the initial lead is going to claim victory and refute all other counts. The leading side will accuse any election official who does not side with them in stopping the legally defined and required process as untrustworthy (which is what happened to Sam Reed (R) in Washington state).
Concepts that are important but little thought about until a situation like these occur. First an election is a process and actually a very long drawn out process. It makes for great TV on election night but that is only the beginning. This seldom occurs to us as most elections are well outside the margin of error. Take for example Missouri's vote for President on election night the difference was reported as 5,900 votes, if you look today it is closer to 4,900 votes. This is a swing of 1,000 votes in a week. Has anyone heard of any complaints or screams of foul play, magical ballots? Yet we pretend to be horrified by a 500 vote difference from election night in MN senatorial race. Guess what the difference is.
The second concept that is easily tossed aside by politicians fighting for their political life is that the vote belongs to the voter. There is an assumption that votes for a politician belong to them. Not so. Those votes belong to the voter who has a right that was won through much blood through many years. The state has an obligation to secure that right for the voter. The voter has a right to vote and for the vote to be counted the state has a responsibility to see that it happens.
We must remember that the optical scanners that are widely used are done so very much for convience. This is fastest possible way to process and calculate votes. This is important to us Americans as we need instant answers. When there is a widely accepted error rate of .5% it is important that those races that are close are scrutinized. This is where the tussle comes. The tension arises in coordinating the integrity of the electoral process and the right to participate in the democracy with our vote. Traditionally the dividing lines fall with the Republicans arguing for the integrity and Democrats arguing for the sanctity of the franchise to vote. It conveniently coincides with the general idea that when more people vote Democrats do better, when fewer people vote Republicans do better. This tension manifests itself on voter intent. That is what we all witnessed down in Florida in 2000. Eyes bulging to examine chads to determine voter intent. On optical scanner it is a little easier to make that determination.
It appears the state of Minnesota has some fairly standard rules for determining voter intent on optical scan ballots. The biggest question that will face scrutiny will be the decision at the local level whether to do a machine recount or a hand recount.
8235.1000 ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEMS.
In precincts in an election jurisdiction where an electronic voting system is used, the recount official shall determine if the ballots are to be recounted on the electronic voting system or manually
What we are likely to see is pressure at the Republican sections of the state to perform machine recounts and pressure at the Democratic sections of the state to perform hand recounts. This is not just a matter of what suits the candidates interest it goes to the philosophy of voting mentioned above.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/how-does-a-minnesota-recount-work
What to remember going forward. This is going to be messy. Want clean and neat. Dictatorships are clean and efficient, Democracies are messy. These are good people doing the best that they can. If you don't like what is happening. Get involved.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Attack of the Internets
Google Flu Trends is participating in the fight against the flu. The New York Times has an article regarding the use of Google search traffic being used to provide indicators of the spread of flu.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/technology/internet/12flu.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
They are tracking an agregate of search words that are flu related flu, thermometer, symptoms etc. The belief is that these searches are indicative of the appearence of the flu and these searches can be measured and mapped alerting health professionals of the presence and breadth of the flu in their area.
Thomas Malone, a professor at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. “I think we are just scratching the surface of what’s possible with collective intelligence.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/technology/internet/12flu.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
They are tracking an agregate of search words that are flu related flu, thermometer, symptoms etc. The belief is that these searches are indicative of the appearence of the flu and these searches can be measured and mapped alerting health professionals of the presence and breadth of the flu in their area.
They are mapping North America by state providing for flu conditions.
This is not the first time that internet traffic has been used to fight disease. The website Where's George has provided its database to the CDC for the purpose of studying human movement.
http://www.wheresgeorge.com/
The scientists found that the money followed a predictable pattern. The method could be used to create more realistic disease models that track the spread of germs and perhaps prevent outbreaks.
Thomas Malone, a professor at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. “I think we are just scratching the surface of what’s possible with collective intelligence.”
Monday, November 10, 2008
"If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world."
That is what King George III said of George Washington upon learning that General Washington voluntarily gave up his control of the Continental Army.
The peaceful and voluntary release of power from one person to another was a defining moment in American history. My recollection from history class is that when George Washington handed over the reigns of power to John Adams marked the first time in history that this had occurred.
This is one of those basic tenets of America that made and continues to make this a great country. This is one of those things that people from all walks of life and political philosophies agree up.
One has seldom heard me compliment President Bush. At this time I perceive Bush understands the significance of this moment and his place in history. He seems to understand the difference between politics and people. It probably helps that he witnessed first hand the transition of power from Bush I to Clinton. The magnitude of the economic situation and our ongoing wars provide for a climate that calls for a congenial and unified transfer.
The peaceful and voluntary release of power from one person to another was a defining moment in American history. My recollection from history class is that when George Washington handed over the reigns of power to John Adams marked the first time in history that this had occurred.
This is one of those basic tenets of America that made and continues to make this a great country. This is one of those things that people from all walks of life and political philosophies agree up.
One has seldom heard me compliment President Bush. At this time I perceive Bush understands the significance of this moment and his place in history. He seems to understand the difference between politics and people. It probably helps that he witnessed first hand the transition of power from Bush I to Clinton. The magnitude of the economic situation and our ongoing wars provide for a climate that calls for a congenial and unified transfer.
60 Minutes
If you haven't seen this, it is definitely worth a look. It touches on many of the experiences those of us who did volunteer went through. One of my many memories will be David Axelrod fighting with a pez dispenser the night of the Columbia event. Oct. 30th. I had the honor of transporting Axelrod and Plouffe that night.
Watch CBS Videos Online
Watch CBS Videos Online
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Humor is a lot easier when you win...
Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are
I am debating my new obsession. Marathon or Mountain Climbing.
What do ya know.... I made the paper.
I was made aware of the following article in this Sunday's daily Tribune.
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Nov/20081109News006.asp
http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Nov/20081109News006.asp
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Ground Game Review
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has a great article analyzing the effects ground game and how they played out in this election.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of.html
% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns
State Obama McCain Gap
NV 50% 29% 21%
CO 51% 34% 17%
IN 37% 22% 15%
VA 50% 38% 12%
PA 50% 39% 11%
IA 41% 30% 11%
FL 29% 20% 9%
NC 34% 26% 8%
MO 44% 37% 7%
OH 43% 36% 7%
WI 42% 39% 3%
WV 29% 31% -2%
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of.html
% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns
State Obama McCain Gap
NV 50% 29% 21%
CO 51% 34% 17%
IN 37% 22% 15%
VA 50% 38% 12%
PA 50% 39% 11%
IA 41% 30% 11%
FL 29% 20% 9%
NC 34% 26% 8%
MO 44% 37% 7%
OH 43% 36% 7%
WI 42% 39% 3%
WV 29% 31% -2%
Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote in that state. So the rule of thumb that a "good" ground game may be worth additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat more than that.
Mid-MObama
If you follow the link below you will be directed to a slideshow put together by one of the volunteers that poured her heart into this campaign. She was fortunate like myself to be asked to be part of the motorcade. If you have a couple of minutes it is worth a look. It gives a good idea of what a movement looks like. These are the people who came together to make something positive happen.
http://www.moonshadowstudio.com/obama/
http://www.moonshadowstudio.com/obama/
Friday, November 7, 2008
Inside the numbers
I have looked up a few numbers that I thought were important. This isn't much of a post but a listing of stats.
First time voters. These numbers are gross numbers not divided by race.
Total first time voters. Roughly 13,000,000
Obama won 69% to 30% = 5,070,000 vote difference. A very liberal estimate would put the African American portion of this at 25% equalling
1,267,500 additional votes.
Total Popular vote difference was 8,000,000 votes.
Youth vote. 18-29 year olds voter participation had bottomed out at 40% of eligible turnout in 2000. 2008 estimates are between 50 - 54%.
This voting group favored Obama 66% to 32%. Young voters made up a larger share of the electorate that voters 65 and older.
Obama performed better with white voters than Kerry did in 2004 Obama 43% to Kerry 41%. As a matter of fact over the past 40 years the Democratic nominee has averaged 40% of the white vote. Obama outperformed the average by 3%.
This tidbit comes direct from CNN.
First time voters. These numbers are gross numbers not divided by race.
Total first time voters. Roughly 13,000,000
Obama won 69% to 30% = 5,070,000 vote difference. A very liberal estimate would put the African American portion of this at 25% equalling
1,267,500 additional votes.
Total Popular vote difference was 8,000,000 votes.
Youth vote. 18-29 year olds voter participation had bottomed out at 40% of eligible turnout in 2000. 2008 estimates are between 50 - 54%.
This voting group favored Obama 66% to 32%. Young voters made up a larger share of the electorate that voters 65 and older.
Obama performed better with white voters than Kerry did in 2004 Obama 43% to Kerry 41%. As a matter of fact over the past 40 years the Democratic nominee has averaged 40% of the white vote. Obama outperformed the average by 3%.
This tidbit comes direct from CNN.
A stunning 54 percent of young white voters supported Obama, compared with 44 percent who went for McCain, the senator from Arizona. In the past three decades, no Democratic presidential nominee has won more than 45 percent of young whites.
"I told you so" is so much fun....
The internal meltdown plays out in public.
As bad as this is, remember that the man who argued that he had the experience, the judgement, the partiotism, the comittment to putting country first selected this lady to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
It is fun to go back to a post I posted back on Saturday September 13.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/random-reaction.html
As bad as this is, remember that the man who argued that he had the experience, the judgement, the partiotism, the comittment to putting country first selected this lady to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
It is fun to go back to a post I posted back on Saturday September 13.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/random-reaction.html
I am sensing a lot of using going on.McCain using Palin as a puppet. Stand up there look good and deliver the lines that he is unable to. Does any one think for a second that Sarah Palin would say to McCain and his handlers no I don't feel comfortable saying that.
The condensation, the mocking, the pettiness all come off bad. This brings me back to the fact that she is being used by the McCain camp. They don't have any use for her other than what it gains them. If she ends up damaging her image, her reputation what do they care.
Even though they are using her she is using them right back. Whether she has gotten in over her head or not is to be found out as the clock winds down to election day. However, she has jumped at it whole hog. She has sold her family down the drain for her chance of jumping to the front of the line of Republican pecking order.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
A few notes.
Missouri did not turn blue this week. But we got close. This does not diminish the joy of this victory one little bit. I safely speak for all the volunteers that I met and got to know during the long hours of the last couple of months. We were working for a President of the "United" States of America, not the State of Missouri. That is one of the greatest promises of this moment. That we can come together to answer the challenges that lie before us.
Many times over the past 10 months a constant criticism of President elect Obama has been that he hasn't done anything of merit. That he is able to give a good speech but what else. I can testify first hand what an inspirational leader can achieve. In a run down storefront in a small University town in the middle of the deep red ocean here in Missouri he brought people together for the common good, to continue on the path to make this a "more perfect union".
In that room on this election day volunteers from all around the country converged for a singular purpose. As a result of this combined effort by 5:00 pm on election day we had made over 10,000 phone calls to voters. Over 850 people had been out on the streets knocking on doors and encouraging people to get to the polls. We provided over 40 rides to the polls, many times with 2 - 3 voters per ride totally about 100 additional voters, voting due to rides. Many, many of these rides resulted from a knock on a door or a well timed phone call. I am guessing one quarter of the rides were generated by such voter contact all the way up until 5:30 - 6:00.
This was a labor intensive effort. But truly a "Labor of love." The end result may not have been an electoral victory in the state of Missouri. It was definitely a victory for democracy. By comparison to the last two Presidential elections.
Voter Turnout
2000 - 56%,
2004 - 67.5%
2008 - 83.65%.
In 2004 Kerry lost Boone County Missouri by 158 votes.
In 2008 Obama won Boone County Missouri by 10,157.
The watch party was a thrill. A group celebration and a collective sigh. The sentiment that was passed around from volunteer to volunteer was that of "Thank You". This has been a wonderful chapter of my life. I wish I had to writing ability to express what I have experienced in a way that could be understood. I just wanted to say "Thank You" to all out there who invested themselves in "perfecting" this democracy and the United States.
When I woke up on Wednesday Nov. 5. It was a sunny day unusually warm and pleasant for November here in Mid-Missouri. It was fitting way to start off the day after a historic night. The symbolism came to me immediately of a fresh new beginning.
Many times over the past 10 months a constant criticism of President elect Obama has been that he hasn't done anything of merit. That he is able to give a good speech but what else. I can testify first hand what an inspirational leader can achieve. In a run down storefront in a small University town in the middle of the deep red ocean here in Missouri he brought people together for the common good, to continue on the path to make this a "more perfect union".
In that room on this election day volunteers from all around the country converged for a singular purpose. As a result of this combined effort by 5:00 pm on election day we had made over 10,000 phone calls to voters. Over 850 people had been out on the streets knocking on doors and encouraging people to get to the polls. We provided over 40 rides to the polls, many times with 2 - 3 voters per ride totally about 100 additional voters, voting due to rides. Many, many of these rides resulted from a knock on a door or a well timed phone call. I am guessing one quarter of the rides were generated by such voter contact all the way up until 5:30 - 6:00.
This was a labor intensive effort. But truly a "Labor of love." The end result may not have been an electoral victory in the state of Missouri. It was definitely a victory for democracy. By comparison to the last two Presidential elections.
Voter Turnout
2000 - 56%,
2004 - 67.5%
2008 - 83.65%.
In 2004 Kerry lost Boone County Missouri by 158 votes.
In 2008 Obama won Boone County Missouri by 10,157.
The watch party was a thrill. A group celebration and a collective sigh. The sentiment that was passed around from volunteer to volunteer was that of "Thank You". This has been a wonderful chapter of my life. I wish I had to writing ability to express what I have experienced in a way that could be understood. I just wanted to say "Thank You" to all out there who invested themselves in "perfecting" this democracy and the United States.
When I woke up on Wednesday Nov. 5. It was a sunny day unusually warm and pleasant for November here in Mid-Missouri. It was fitting way to start off the day after a historic night. The symbolism came to me immediately of a fresh new beginning.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
1 Day to go
I have been busier then I expected over the course of the last week. This has been a good thing. The experience of the motorcade was unbelievable. Then it was right back to work Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Sunday was probably our best day of volunteer turnout yet. It caught us a little off guard. Now we are finalizing the plans for Tuesday's GOTV.
With Missouri being a tied race with one day to go, it is going to be a very interesting state to watch.
We will get a view of any Bradley effect that may be in play.
We will get a view of the actually results of one campaign being clearly out organized by the other.
Another thing I have been sawing over the last few days as we concentrate on getting the actual voters to the polls is the affect a Secretary of State has on the voting process. The two most extreme examples would be Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004. This year around there are more Democrats sitting in the SOS position and it makes a difference. The Secretary of State acts on the states in implementation of rules and regulations of the election process. The net effect is to impact the number of voters that realistic access to the ballot box. They have many ways of affecting this. Some examples are purging voter rolls and requiring voters to re-prove their right to vote, Adding additional layers of proof to vote such as citizenship proof in addition to thier registration and already required identification requirement. They can affect the number and location of polling locations, polling hours etc.
The net effect can be to make it difficult for people to vote and dissuading them to do so. They do this in name of securing the sanctity of hte ballot box and various other vagaries. The bottom line though is that when more people vote Democrats general do better. There for the plan has always to find ways to keep the turnout down. This is one reason they were so adamently against th motor voter law which allowed a person to register to vote at the DMV and various other government locations. This is why they push for picture Id and proof of citizenship forms above and beyond the registration. This is how certain counties and certain parts of a county have massive lines and others do not.
While the Obama campaing is working hard to address all these potential issues in addvance, there is also one other asset to the voter this time around. The new Secretaries of States. Between 2004 - 2008 a number of states have elected Democratic SOS's. This should prove positive for people wanting to vote. It happens to help democrats as well.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15105.html
With Missouri being a tied race with one day to go, it is going to be a very interesting state to watch.
We will get a view of any Bradley effect that may be in play.
We will get a view of the actually results of one campaign being clearly out organized by the other.
Another thing I have been sawing over the last few days as we concentrate on getting the actual voters to the polls is the affect a Secretary of State has on the voting process. The two most extreme examples would be Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004. This year around there are more Democrats sitting in the SOS position and it makes a difference. The Secretary of State acts on the states in implementation of rules and regulations of the election process. The net effect is to impact the number of voters that realistic access to the ballot box. They have many ways of affecting this. Some examples are purging voter rolls and requiring voters to re-prove their right to vote, Adding additional layers of proof to vote such as citizenship proof in addition to thier registration and already required identification requirement. They can affect the number and location of polling locations, polling hours etc.
The net effect can be to make it difficult for people to vote and dissuading them to do so. They do this in name of securing the sanctity of hte ballot box and various other vagaries. The bottom line though is that when more people vote Democrats general do better. There for the plan has always to find ways to keep the turnout down. This is one reason they were so adamently against th motor voter law which allowed a person to register to vote at the DMV and various other government locations. This is why they push for picture Id and proof of citizenship forms above and beyond the registration. This is how certain counties and certain parts of a county have massive lines and others do not.
While the Obama campaing is working hard to address all these potential issues in addvance, there is also one other asset to the voter this time around. The new Secretaries of States. Between 2004 - 2008 a number of states have elected Democratic SOS's. This should prove positive for people wanting to vote. It happens to help democrats as well.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15105.html
Perhaps more important, in those five states Democrats are now in a more advantageous position when it comes to the interpretation and administration of election law — a development that could benefit Barack Obama if any of those states are closely contested on Election Day.
The effort began in 2006 when a group of liberal California activists created an independent 527 group designed to elect secretaries of state.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Recap
It has been a hectic few days. I expect the next few to be just as crazy. We get to do Halloween tonight as a family. Then back to the campaign. The visit was a success. I had the very good fortune of being a part of the motorcade operation. I won't go into much detail. I was able to get a photo op with "The Senator". I met a number of very interesting people at all levels of staff.
At many times it was a very surreal experience. I felt I was in the middle of a movie scene. Surrounded by Secret Service, people constantly scrolling their black berries or a phone on the ear. My main point of contact with the campaign. Was a very dedicated staffer. Detailed oriented to a fault. Multitasking fool, problem solver, organized, focused. Once the wheels left the ground for departure one could notice that it was ok for him to relax. Oh by the way, he was 25.
This next note has absolutely nothing to do with what I heard of saw of the past 24 hours. The campaign plane was heading off the Des Moines, IA. At first I thought nothing about it. While it may make sense geographically. I wonder about it strategically, which at this point has to trump all concerns.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html
Is Iowa back in play. There are quotes out there from the McCain camp that Iowa is functionally tied. They have been spending alot of time and effort there. One can probably tell what a campaign is thinking or planning based on the candidate's schedulel. The good news it looks like alot of the time wil be spent in Florida and Missouri. Which is a good thing as they were both Repbulican states in 2004. So the biggest battle is being fought on republican territory.
At many times it was a very surreal experience. I felt I was in the middle of a movie scene. Surrounded by Secret Service, people constantly scrolling their black berries or a phone on the ear. My main point of contact with the campaign. Was a very dedicated staffer. Detailed oriented to a fault. Multitasking fool, problem solver, organized, focused. Once the wheels left the ground for departure one could notice that it was ok for him to relax. Oh by the way, he was 25.
This next note has absolutely nothing to do with what I heard of saw of the past 24 hours. The campaign plane was heading off the Des Moines, IA. At first I thought nothing about it. While it may make sense geographically. I wonder about it strategically, which at this point has to trump all concerns.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html
Is Iowa back in play. There are quotes out there from the McCain camp that Iowa is functionally tied. They have been spending alot of time and effort there. One can probably tell what a campaign is thinking or planning based on the candidate's schedulel. The good news it looks like alot of the time wil be spent in Florida and Missouri. Which is a good thing as they were both Repbulican states in 2004. So the biggest battle is being fought on republican territory.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Coming to Columbia,
As mentioned earlier in Catch Up http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/catch-up.html on the conference call on Saturday Barack Obama stated he was probably coming to Missouri one more time this week. I laid out a good reason why he should consider Columbia. Although in the end I suspected it would be one of the Suburban counties of St. Louis or Kansas City.
I have been watching his public schedule since then. I just came across an announcement that he is in fact coming to Columbia. Once again I think this is a great place to visit. Columbia is a strong hold for Obama here in the middle of rural Missouri. We have a large college University of Missouri with nearly 30,000 students. There are signs of many of the rural Democrats coming home and strengthening their support of Obama.
The event will be held on the Quad of the campus at 7:30pm. I don't know yet if I will be needed to volunteer for the event. I will be going in later this morning to find out what has to happen. If Obama can drive up his numbers here in Columbia and give any kind of boost to his support in the rural areas he will definitely increase the likelihood that his margins in the St. Louis and Kansas City will be enough to carry the state.
I just came back from a few hours at the office. It dawned on me shortly after I posted the above what the impact would be on the local operation.
First while we were are hurtling full speed ahead toward fine tuning and executing our Get Out the Vote operation attention needs to be split off to field the operation of hosting a major event.
This now needs to be done simultaneously. The other side of the coin is that this is bringing out a large number of volunteers to field these operations. Since this ground team started forming in late summer there is already a base of volunteers that fall into leadership roles. Now the team to leader can grow exponentially. Of course most of the people coming in and calling in are going to be interested in working the Obama event. Once they are in for that it is a lot easier to convince them to go ahead and commit to the weekend and Election day operation.
I have been watching his public schedule since then. I just came across an announcement that he is in fact coming to Columbia. Once again I think this is a great place to visit. Columbia is a strong hold for Obama here in the middle of rural Missouri. We have a large college University of Missouri with nearly 30,000 students. There are signs of many of the rural Democrats coming home and strengthening their support of Obama.
The event will be held on the Quad of the campus at 7:30pm. I don't know yet if I will be needed to volunteer for the event. I will be going in later this morning to find out what has to happen. If Obama can drive up his numbers here in Columbia and give any kind of boost to his support in the rural areas he will definitely increase the likelihood that his margins in the St. Louis and Kansas City will be enough to carry the state.
I just came back from a few hours at the office. It dawned on me shortly after I posted the above what the impact would be on the local operation.
First while we were are hurtling full speed ahead toward fine tuning and executing our Get Out the Vote operation attention needs to be split off to field the operation of hosting a major event.
This now needs to be done simultaneously. The other side of the coin is that this is bringing out a large number of volunteers to field these operations. Since this ground team started forming in late summer there is already a base of volunteers that fall into leadership roles. Now the team to leader can grow exponentially. Of course most of the people coming in and calling in are going to be interested in working the Obama event. Once they are in for that it is a lot easier to convince them to go ahead and commit to the weekend and Election day operation.
Monday, October 27, 2008
State of MO
I will try to tidy up all things Mo.
According to realclear politics currently two tightest battle ground states are Missouri and Indiana. Interesting that they are both neighboring states to Illinois. This should be beneficial to Obama as I know they are recruiting volunteers from Illinois to work the GOTV operations in both Indiana and MO. The latest polling for Missouri is as follows.
The polling graph is courtesy of Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mo/08-mo-pres-ge-mvo.php
We are currently sitting on a 1.9 point lead well within the margin of error.
SurveyUSA 10/25-26/08 672 LV 48 48 - - - - 1 0
Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26/08 600 LV 46 48 - - - - 6 +2D
Mason-Dixon 10/22-23/08 625 LV 46 45 - - - - - +1R
Research 2000 10/20-23/08 800 LV 47 48 - - - 3 2 +1D
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 717 LV 48 48 - - - - 5 0
FOX/Rasmussen 10/19/08 1000 LV 44 49 1 2 1 - 4 +5D
Rasmussen is due out with a new poll at 6pm eastern this evening.
Looking over the exit polls for 2004 there are a few things that are encouraging for Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MO/P/00/epolls.0.html
53% of the voters were female.
Kerry won by a mere 3%. I believe 53% is a tad higher than the national average. It appears that at this time Obama is outperforming Kerry with female voters leading by as much as 10%.
First time voters in 2004 were 11%.
This number could either rise in relation to overall voters or it may rise to stay consistent as voters of all categories increase. In 2004 Kerry won first time voters by 7%. Today they are favoring Obama by 47%. Yes forty seven percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=6079714&page=1
10% African American.
In 2004 10% of the voters were African American. Which is pretty consistent with general population breakdown. However, in 2008 it would not be a surprise to see the percentage of the African American rate of voters to increase at a rate higher than the non - African American population. Kerry and Obama are polling roughly even from 2004 to 2008 at about 90 - 10 %.
According to realclear politics currently two tightest battle ground states are Missouri and Indiana. Interesting that they are both neighboring states to Illinois. This should be beneficial to Obama as I know they are recruiting volunteers from Illinois to work the GOTV operations in both Indiana and MO. The latest polling for Missouri is as follows.
The polling graph is courtesy of Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mo/08-mo-pres-ge-mvo.php
We are currently sitting on a 1.9 point lead well within the margin of error.
SurveyUSA 10/25-26/08 672 LV 48 48 - - - - 1 0
Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26/08 600 LV 46 48 - - - - 6 +2D
Mason-Dixon 10/22-23/08 625 LV 46 45 - - - - - +1R
Research 2000 10/20-23/08 800 LV 47 48 - - - 3 2 +1D
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 717 LV 48 48 - - - - 5 0
FOX/Rasmussen 10/19/08 1000 LV 44 49 1 2 1 - 4 +5D
Rasmussen is due out with a new poll at 6pm eastern this evening.
Looking over the exit polls for 2004 there are a few things that are encouraging for Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MO/P/00/epolls.0.html
53% of the voters were female.
Kerry won by a mere 3%. I believe 53% is a tad higher than the national average. It appears that at this time Obama is outperforming Kerry with female voters leading by as much as 10%.
First time voters in 2004 were 11%.
This number could either rise in relation to overall voters or it may rise to stay consistent as voters of all categories increase. In 2004 Kerry won first time voters by 7%. Today they are favoring Obama by 47%. Yes forty seven percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=6079714&page=1
10% African American.
In 2004 10% of the voters were African American. Which is pretty consistent with general population breakdown. However, in 2008 it would not be a surprise to see the percentage of the African American rate of voters to increase at a rate higher than the non - African American population. Kerry and Obama are polling roughly even from 2004 to 2008 at about 90 - 10 %.
83,000 Registrations.
The Obama campaign handed in 83,000 new voter registration forms directly. This number does not include any additional new registrants from third parties or from people who simply decided to register on their own. Be assured that these 83,000 voters were specifically targeted by the Obama campaign. As a result it is reasonable to expect that the number of votes is even higher than the 47% advantage that Obama has on the generic first time voter.
2500 Volunteers
Over the weekend the Obama campaign ran an election day simulation. This is the first of two. All functions were run through. The operation was ran by the states' paid staffers with 2500 volunteers. Paid staff directed the operation with volunteers facilitating the operation on leadership roles. The simulation was evaluated and critiqued and adjusted from top to bottom and will be simulated once again this weekend. On election day, it will be the third run of the GOTV operation with an exponentially larger number of volunteers out on the streets and on the phones being directed by an army of volunteers who have gone through three weeks of training.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/catch-up.html
538 = 63%
Fivethirty.com has Missouri listed as a 63% likelihood of going for Obama.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Closing Argument
I mentioned a few days ago that McFailin had teed up the ball for Obama to launch his closing argument. I compared the round of his most recent speeches to his 2004 }DNC keynote address.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/full-circle.html
Now it seems the pros are catching up. Ben Smith over at Politico reports that Obama will unveil his closing argument in a speech tomorrow.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Closing_tomorrow.html?showall
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/obama_to_deliver_closing_argum.php
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/full-circle.html
Now it seems the pros are catching up. Ben Smith over at Politico reports that Obama will unveil his closing argument in a speech tomorrow.
After a summer of fairly direct partisanship, Obama's fall stump speech has edged back toward his 2004 convention speech, with a passage about how there's no red and blue America. It will be interesting to see how much of that there is in the final week
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Closing_tomorrow.html?showall
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/obama_to_deliver_closing_argum.php
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Catch up
Seems my time is getting more and more limited as we creep toward election day. Every time I think I am going to take a day away from the campaign office my wife pushes me back to the office. I was there till 12:30 last night. Returned at 8:00 this morning and worked till 5:40. Got to take little man in for the first few hours.
We went through a "dry run" of election day. It was very effective on many levels. It prepared us for the controlled chaos of election day. What I truly was impressed with was the debriefing process that resultled from the dry run. Everyone was quizzed about how to make the highly thoughtout process could be improved. What was its strengths and weaknesses. What worked and what needed to be addressed. I would venture to guess there were 6 paid staffers involved in this process, supplemented by almost a dozen volunteer team leaders. Well over a hundred and fifty volunteers partaking in phone calling, canvassing, volunteer support.
Just before the completion of the excercise a number of the volunteers were invited to attend a conference call regarding the ground operation. The conference call was joined by Barack Obama and he provided words of encouragement, an assessment of the race, a reminder of the importance of the work that lay ahead. The major gist was that we all have worked so hard to put us where we are at that we cannot afford to let it be for naught. This is not the time to let up. This is the time to redouble our efforts. He once again thanked us.
I am planning on taking the day for my family tomorrow. However, my wife may have something about that. I guess I will worry about all that after the election.
Oh yeah he mentioned that he would probably be in Missouri one more time this week before the election. Which tells me they are searious about winning Missouri. Which is interesting because Obama truly can win the EV majority without MO. In last weeks training one thing that was made very clear and makes total sense was that the most important asset a campaign posseses is the candidates time. Nothing is more thoroughly analyzed than how to best invest the canidate themselves. It is great that he will be heading this week.
I would love for him to come to central Missouri. It would a little sense considering he has enerized both the east and west coast of the state with his visits last week to St. Louis and Kansas City. The southwest is very heavily republican. The next largest population center is the Columbia Boone County area. He has a large base of support in the immediate Columbia area. Also I sense he is gaining in the more rural areas around and northeast of Columbia.
However, with such a limited amount of time, it might make the most sense to attack the surrounding suburban counties around KC or St. Louis.
We went through a "dry run" of election day. It was very effective on many levels. It prepared us for the controlled chaos of election day. What I truly was impressed with was the debriefing process that resultled from the dry run. Everyone was quizzed about how to make the highly thoughtout process could be improved. What was its strengths and weaknesses. What worked and what needed to be addressed. I would venture to guess there were 6 paid staffers involved in this process, supplemented by almost a dozen volunteer team leaders. Well over a hundred and fifty volunteers partaking in phone calling, canvassing, volunteer support.
Just before the completion of the excercise a number of the volunteers were invited to attend a conference call regarding the ground operation. The conference call was joined by Barack Obama and he provided words of encouragement, an assessment of the race, a reminder of the importance of the work that lay ahead. The major gist was that we all have worked so hard to put us where we are at that we cannot afford to let it be for naught. This is not the time to let up. This is the time to redouble our efforts. He once again thanked us.
I am planning on taking the day for my family tomorrow. However, my wife may have something about that. I guess I will worry about all that after the election.
Oh yeah he mentioned that he would probably be in Missouri one more time this week before the election. Which tells me they are searious about winning Missouri. Which is interesting because Obama truly can win the EV majority without MO. In last weeks training one thing that was made very clear and makes total sense was that the most important asset a campaign posseses is the candidates time. Nothing is more thoroughly analyzed than how to best invest the canidate themselves. It is great that he will be heading this week.
I would love for him to come to central Missouri. It would a little sense considering he has enerized both the east and west coast of the state with his visits last week to St. Louis and Kansas City. The southwest is very heavily republican. The next largest population center is the Columbia Boone County area. He has a large base of support in the immediate Columbia area. Also I sense he is gaining in the more rural areas around and northeast of Columbia.
However, with such a limited amount of time, it might make the most sense to attack the surrounding suburban counties around KC or St. Louis.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Dress Rehearsel
This is my first time of living in a battleground state, I find it interesting. The bombardment is full swing. Mailers, robocalls, tv ads. I sense people are hitting maximum capacity. I also sense that maybe the only effective approach left at this time is in fact canvassing. If there are undecideds out there. Which is just completely unfathomable to me. I am not judging them it's just that my brain is wired in a manner that I could not know. If there are undecideds out there I think about the only that will cut through the clutter is a warm smile and a friendly face. It is probably going to take a familiar accent and a similiar disposition to allow ones guard down enough to open up about their feelings on the election.
We are, I am sure all around the state and the country, planning a large scale canvassing operation this weekend. This will in preparation of election day GOTV as well as identifying supporters and persuading the persuadable. This is essentially a dress rehearsel of the election day GOTV operation. This will done this weekend and again next weekend. By election day it will be our third run at the operation. I will assist in running the phone bank operation for the county as well as falling back on my old dispatcher experience and being the driver dispatch for election day. This will be a lot of work, but it will be fun. I have always enjoyed working the polls as I have mentioned previously and I expect this to be more of the same.
We are, I am sure all around the state and the country, planning a large scale canvassing operation this weekend. This will in preparation of election day GOTV as well as identifying supporters and persuading the persuadable. This is essentially a dress rehearsel of the election day GOTV operation. This will done this weekend and again next weekend. By election day it will be our third run at the operation. I will assist in running the phone bank operation for the county as well as falling back on my old dispatcher experience and being the driver dispatch for election day. This will be a lot of work, but it will be fun. I have always enjoyed working the polls as I have mentioned previously and I expect this to be more of the same.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Full Circle
I have said many times that I was convinced that I wanted Barack Obama to be our President when I heard him delivery his keynote address at the 2004 DNC. Four years later as he is on the verge making this a reality. The McCain - Palin ticket has teed up the ball for Obama to make his closing argument which is the same as his opening argument. There is no real America, no Pro America. There are no Red States, there are no Blue States. There is the United States of America.
Every since the dingbats on the right have started their attempt to divide Virginia into real and fake Virginia, establish the Pro America and anti America parts of the country, and discern who are the pro America and the anti America congress people. I have been waiting for Barack to answer them as has been so eloquently. As we wind into the final 10 days or so of this election I expect to hear his closing argument more and more forcefully. It is a point that is valid, appreciated, and needed even more at this time than it was 4 years ago.
Every since the dingbats on the right have started their attempt to divide Virginia into real and fake Virginia, establish the Pro America and anti America parts of the country, and discern who are the pro America and the anti America congress people. I have been waiting for Barack to answer them as has been so eloquently. As we wind into the final 10 days or so of this election I expect to hear his closing argument more and more forcefully. It is a point that is valid, appreciated, and needed even more at this time than it was 4 years ago.
Got some Ground Game?
And on that note I will get up off my @$$ and go into the campaign office and get some work done.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Phone bank with a Musical Legend
Tonight is your chance to phonebank with a musical legend. Carole King will be in the Columbia, MO campaign office to phone bank with volunteers as we have 14 days left to change the world.I was pleased to hear the Ms. King was not only visiting Columbia. She had already been a number of smaller field offices during the day including Louisiana, Mo and Hannibal, MO. She had a full days schedule for today as well. She spoke to many issues of being a Democrat in a rural area as she has lived in rural Idaho for 30 years. Thank you Ms. King.
Monday, October 20, 2008
McCain visits Columbia draws crowd of...
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/10/20/mccain-land-columbia-regional-airport/
Sorry that's the wrong picture. McCain draws crowd of 15 at Columbia, MO.
This was posted as a joke. However, it is very telling. This dovetails into the anecdotal stories of the two campaigns ground games. As an example about two weeks ago I got a call from the Obama campaign saying there was going to be speaker in town that afternoon regarding Obama's energy policy. I was unable to attend, my wife went in my place. So with two hours notice the campaign put together an audience of 10 people to see the Obama's National advisor on energy policy. If you walk into the Obama campaign office right now at 9:43 am on a Tuesday you are going to find no less 10 people in their working. I can assure if Obama or Biden or Michelle Obama for that matter where to coming to town the organization would be all over it and their would be a large enthusiastic crowd there to greet them.
If this is the difference in ground games here in the heart of a battleground state, then the Obama camp has an advantage that is difficult to quantify. Mind you Columbia, may be a University town but it is in heart of the bible belt of Missouri. It is surrounded by the kind of towns that the McCain camp would classify as real and pro America. Plus surely there are some enthusiastic College Republicans that could have found some time to meet their leader.
A little video tribute to the Presidential visits to Middle America.
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