Critical Mass

Many of those that are left me are renewing the push to pass a public option in the Senate (it has already passed in the house). While I am in total agreement that a public option is vital to comprehensive health care reform, I am uncertain of the reality of it passing. This renewed push received a boost with a letter written and signed by 4 Senate Democrats asking Senate leader Reid to pursue a vote on the Senate floor.

Huffington Post: Public Option Support Surging In Senate

Daily Kos: New: Public Option Through Reconciliation Scoreboard: 16 Signers + 3 Supporters = 19

Reid's response was that he was personally in favor of a public option but someone had to show him the votes for passage. Upon on that word many activist have renewed their calls to their Senators to push for a sign of support. The number has climbed to 19 who have either directly signed onto the letter or expressed their support for passing a public option through reconciliation (simple majority, as opposed to a 60 vote super majority).

There are a lot of people and organizers on the left whipping up people's excitement about this possible resurgence. Is it misplaced? Well, of course it is too early to tell. Let's look at the significance of the last few days. Essentially we have 19 Democratic Senators who have basically stated what their position has always been. I don't believe there truly has been an surprise endorsements for this idea. That being said momentum does seem to play a big part in passing legislation.

20 or 25 supporters doesn't change the game, it basically reaffirms it. Now if the number climbs into the high 30's / low 40's of Senators "going on the record" that would be nearing the necessary critical mass. There 57 Democrats plus 1 independent to draw from. Therefore the Dems can only lose 8 votes. Evan Bayh's announced resignation is hard to read. Instead of feeling free to vote with the party he will feel free to vote against it.

At this time I am not getting my hopes up. I will continue to watch as various members of the left whip up the activist and see how this plays out. One other way to look at this is a bargaining position. President Obama is set to host the Health Care Summit next week. It probably makes a lot of sense for the Democrats asking for more than they will probably get in order call the final bill a compromise. In a nutshell the President can say ok Dems want Public Option Reps want tort reform and selling across state lines here is where we meet in the middle. Which is pretty much where the the current Senate bill is right now.