The Traditional media is catching up (Will the Democrats)

Not that anyone is really paying attention to this blog (that's ok), EJ Dionne of the Washington Post got around to commenting on something I pointed out a couple of post back. This is in regard to Chuck Todd's point regarding reconciliation.

Here is an excerpt form my post:

"Here is the reality the Senate has passed health care reform with the requisite 60 votes. If the house were to simply pass the exact same bill this is all for nothing game over. What is being considered under Reconciliation is a very small portion of the bill. Honestly, most of the stuff that they are considering items that they truthfully against."

The major point and it is a genuine point, is that the Senate is not looking to pass Health Care Reform through Reconciliation they are looking to fix the reform they have already passed (with 60 votes no less).

And again a big chunk of the things they want to fix are things pretty much everyone including republicans agree with. They are taking out the special deals that everyone found so distasteful. John McCain pointed out one such problem. The special treatment that Florida seniors receive in the Senate bill. He as a Senator from Arizone (with it's own sizable senior population) is upset about it. You know what, there are a lot of Democrats that are upset about that as well. President Obama agreed with McCain to McCain's amazement. The President and the Senate Dems are talking about fixing those deals along with a number of other tweeks.

The bottom line, the Republicans are taking their stand not based on the fact they think the Cornhusker kickback and the special deal for Florida is good policy. They are staking out there position to either 1) kill any thing from passing or 2) forcing the Democrats to pass the bill exactly as it is. The second option would allow them to campaign against the dirty back room deals. The deals that Democrats are attempting to exorcise in the Reconciliation package.

So if Republicans vote against the reconciliation fixes they are actually voting to keep these sweetheart deals in the legislation hoping they can turn around say how terrible they sweetheart deals are.

More to the point EJ Dionne gives kudos to Chuck Todd for catching this very important truth where the rest of the media (and democrat stragetist) have failed. EJ is hoping the rest of the media wakes up to the reality the Senate vote will be merely to pass fixes not pass Health Care Reform.

"Kudos to Todd for stating a truth that just about all of us have missed"

It will be interesting to see if the Democrats sharpen their focus with this more accurate description going forward. I think one reason so many in the press and escpecially on the Democrats side was they were expecting the Republicans to simply fight against reconciliation itself. Therefore, the press and the Dems were more focused on the counter argument to that position.

Score one for objectivity (sort of)

When is aid not welfare?

This is a phenomenon that doesn't speak only to conservatives, but a wide swath of the American public. You can see in the myriad of proposals to "drug test welfare recipients". Often this expresses itself state houses and facebook polls etc.

The concept always tend to be received very positively. Andrew Sullivan comes across a chart that show an interesting dichotomy. Conservatives are highly in favoring of cutting welfare but not nearly as much in favor of cutting "Aid to the poor".

My answer to this dilemma is the same as Sullivans.

"Er: Welfare means aid to the black poor, surely? And aid to the poor means white, right? Not that hard to figure it out."

A sliver

Chuck Todd was the first talking head I have heard to make this important point.

The Republicans can't argue against Reconciliation in good faith once the facts are clear.

They have to grease with their argument with, "it has never been done on a scale of this size" (nevermind the fact that the tax cuts I believe were Considerably larger) and approved via Reconciliation.

Here is the reality the Senate has passed health care reform with the requisite 60 votes. If the house were to simply pass the exact same bill this is all for nothing game over. What is being considered under Reconciliation is a very small portion of the bill. Honestly, most of the stuff that they are considering items that they truthfully against.

Keep in Mind

It would probably be accurate to state that this is a talking point that Democrats are pushing regarding the usage of Reconciliation (the novel idea of a majority vote). That doesn't make it invalid.

Elsewhere, political scientist Joshua Tucker found a Congressional Research Service report (pdf) listing every time reconciliation was used between 1981 and 2005, and he built a rough model testing which party used the process more frequently. During that period, there were 19 reconciliation bills, 11 of which were signed by Republican presidents, five of which were signed by Democratic presidents, three of which were vetoed by Democratic presidents, and none of which were vetoed by Republican presidents. "By my admittedly simple classification scheme," Tucker concludes, "this would suggest that 14 of the 19 times reconciliation was used between FY1981 - FY2005, it was used to advance Republican interests."

It's On!!!! ........................CSPAN

The mushy middle / waiting to rise again?

I have often said that America needs at least a third party if not 4th or 5th. However, I have always envisioned that a constructive third party would center on fiscal responsibility and socially liberal or libertarian.

Goverment involvement in certain areas is not intrinsicly bad, but one does have to be vigilant about it's execution. Likewise, the government really doesn't have any business in the bedroom or the doctors office. I just read a piece by Michael Smerconish. He is based in the Philly area he would be considered a moderate republican, he is a talk show host, and he was open to Obama as President.

He relates his decision to switch is party affiliation from Republican to Independant. He points out that currently there are more self identified independents than either Democrats or Republicans. So maybe that third party is forming itself.

Even closer to home

Missouri preserves sales tax exemptions on yachts, no such luck no bassboats, rowboats etc. Oh by the way we are going to need to cut funding for education, thank you.

McClatchy News

A little closer to Home

Somehow ths article came to my attention. It was posted on Biggovernment.com a website of Breitbart who was an apprentice of Matt Drudge. None the less it does shine a light on the questionable dealings of local governments. Keep this in mind when you are told that local governments do things much better than State or Federal Government.

Here is the link.

The story tells about how all dems and reps voted payment of a management fee to a political contributor. Mind you both dems and reps voted for this deal. what I find particularly interesting was the first comment in the comment sections of this story.

"I am concerned that the manner in which the federal government is operating is eerily like how the Krupps munitions factory was still billing the Nazi’s - after Hitler committed suicide."

What? So small town officials questionable ethics = Obama is hitler. Still guessing on this one.

Speaking (again) of Hypocrisy: Schwarzenegger style

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger calls out fellow republicans for their hypocrisy on the stimulus.

"Well, you know, to me I find it interesting that you have a lot of the Republicans running around and pushing back on the stimulus money and saying this doesn't create any new jobs, and then they go out and they do the photo ops and they are posing with the big check and they say, isn't this great?" he said. "Look what the kind of -- the kind of money I provide here for the state, and this is great money to create jobs, and this has created 10,000 new jobs and this has created 20,000 new jobs. And all of these kind of things. It doesn't match up."

Republicans have been attempting to fire back at Democrats for not returning the tax cuts many received under Bush. Here is the difference and it is a big one. The Republicans argument is that the Stimulus does not create jobs at best and hurts job creation in all probability. They then turn around and solicit funds for and brag to their constituents about all the jobs they have help create and save through these very same funds (that don't create jobs and probably hurts job creation.) This pretty much has to be the definition of hypocrisy.

I often say it is more difficult being a liberal, due to the fact that often liberal answers don't often fit on a bumper sticker. In reality issues are complex and often times the answer is complicated. Republicans have settled on lower taxes, small government fits well sounds great, but in reality it doesn't mean shit when they are in control See the 8 years under Bush. That being said the issues of Repulicans performing their doublespeak on the stimulus might be one the Democrats feel they can take advantage of. Hypocrit fits very well on a bumper sticker. It is something everyone can understand and many Republicans were kind enough to provide thier own little visual aids with those big checks in hand. Democrats have every right to take those big checks and beat the republicans over the head with them as matter of fact they have a responsibility to do so. They also need to continue to focus and doing what is necessary in order to make sure the recovery works it's way down the workers of the country and not just the boards.

Taking a stand for the Good Ole' Boys (Toyota that is)

In case you haven't heard it yet, you will soon. The Toyota Recall situation is... Wait for it.... Drum roll please.... Obama's fault.

Yes, that's right you heard it The Obama Administration is behind all of Toyota's current problems. Let me give you a quick rundown. Obama forced GM to sell to the Union and to the Gov't. Obama has too make sure GM survives, you know he owes the Unions and now the Unions own GM. So in order to make sure GM thrives so the Union can increase it's power and money Obama is scaring Americans away from buying Toyota's.

I am guessing I don't need to spell the complete ignorance of this. But I do find amusing is that people spouting this kind of talk are the same people who are flag flying, don't talk bad about our President in time of war, buy USA (shop Walmart) crowd. These are probably the same people that would come into the Electronics store I used to work at and complain because all we had were Hitachis, Toshibas, Sharp etc.

Although this does provide a reason to take a look at somehting that has occurred over the past 20 years. The number of plants / dealerships etc that foreign automakers have put in the USA. Additionally these automakers located in the parts of the country that have had low wages and little unionization mainly the south. Some twenty years later the foreign auto makers have developed a large network of influence through their economic investment in the south. So we have a interesting (if not hypocritical) irony development. Much of the southern population and the specifically many southern politicians are more and more willing to side with Foreign automakers over the US automakers. Those of you who can think back 20 years. Can you imagine a Southern politician standing up and defending a Japanese auto maker back in the 80's.

There is an article over at TPM that goes into detail about the roots that Toyota has developed in the USA and how that might aid them during this rough spot. (Full disclosure I drive a Toyota RAV4, a Honda Accord, and the previous car was a Mazda Protege. As you can see I have nothing against foreign autos.

The last note regarding the conspiracy theory mentioned above. It is my thought if there was a customer in the car market who was considering a Toyota but are concerned would first consider a Honda and then turn their attention to Ford. Ford seems to hitting their stride as of late. Their decision not to partake in the government assistance and their recent string of cars puts them in a much better position to take advantage of the current Toyota problems.

While we are on the hypocrit thingy

Feet off the furniture

Can't quite figure out that Hypocrit thing

Critical Mass

Many of those that are left me are renewing the push to pass a public option in the Senate (it has already passed in the house). While I am in total agreement that a public option is vital to comprehensive health care reform, I am uncertain of the reality of it passing. This renewed push received a boost with a letter written and signed by 4 Senate Democrats asking Senate leader Reid to pursue a vote on the Senate floor.

Huffington Post: Public Option Support Surging In Senate

Daily Kos: New: Public Option Through Reconciliation Scoreboard: 16 Signers + 3 Supporters = 19

Reid's response was that he was personally in favor of a public option but someone had to show him the votes for passage. Upon on that word many activist have renewed their calls to their Senators to push for a sign of support. The number has climbed to 19 who have either directly signed onto the letter or expressed their support for passing a public option through reconciliation (simple majority, as opposed to a 60 vote super majority).

There are a lot of people and organizers on the left whipping up people's excitement about this possible resurgence. Is it misplaced? Well, of course it is too early to tell. Let's look at the significance of the last few days. Essentially we have 19 Democratic Senators who have basically stated what their position has always been. I don't believe there truly has been an surprise endorsements for this idea. That being said momentum does seem to play a big part in passing legislation.

20 or 25 supporters doesn't change the game, it basically reaffirms it. Now if the number climbs into the high 30's / low 40's of Senators "going on the record" that would be nearing the necessary critical mass. There 57 Democrats plus 1 independent to draw from. Therefore the Dems can only lose 8 votes. Evan Bayh's announced resignation is hard to read. Instead of feeling free to vote with the party he will feel free to vote against it.

At this time I am not getting my hopes up. I will continue to watch as various members of the left whip up the activist and see how this plays out. One other way to look at this is a bargaining position. President Obama is set to host the Health Care Summit next week. It probably makes a lot of sense for the Democrats asking for more than they will probably get in order call the final bill a compromise. In a nutshell the President can say ok Dems want Public Option Reps want tort reform and selling across state lines here is where we meet in the middle. Which is pretty much where the the current Senate bill is right now.

Is this the work of Plouffe?

Here's another look

Pollster.com discusses the graph comparing job losses between Bush's and Obama's tenure. I found it interesting and is good for reference. Although I don't the second graph negates the first, nor do I think he intends to.

Have a look for yourself.

The invisible hand speaks - so says George

George Will is a conservative columnist I will link to occasionally. Today he discusses the shortsightedness of the idea of Sarah Palin as leader of a political party.

Conservatives, who rightly respect markets as generally reliable gauges of consumer preferences, should notice that the political market is speaking clearly: The more attention Palin receives, the fewer Americans consider her presidential timber

I love maps: Gov't trust = Economic Growth

The graph shows as peoples disposable income goes up so does their trust in government and vice versa.

1.6 - 1.8 Million jobs

The New York Tmes is reporting that a consensus of outside economist are stating the stimulus pacakage has saved or created between 1.6 - 1.8 million jobs over the past year.

The Chart above gives a decent picture of that.

Just wondering out loud.

Sarah the Queen of the Tea haters is on a rampage about the politically correct manner in which to discuss special needs people in America. I don't think it is a bad thing.

I wonder how is this not the same political correctness that so many people on the right fight against. Is it ok because she is so closely affected by a special needs person. Couldn't that be said about everyone?

I report the good news, I report the bad news, I report just the way you are

CNN POll

52% say President Obama doesn't deserve re-election
44% say he does.

I won't comment too much, except to say this means nothing until you put an opponent in their against him.

None the less something to be aware of. One last thing. I am sure those numbers are very directly related to people's sense of the economy.

A break for some happy pictures

Flip through the pictures of Carnival worldwide from the Boston Globe.

Good is not enough, but it is still good

In years past Conservative Politicians may tend to look at economic trends and measurements and assess that the economy is improving our job / concern is done here. It is the basis of a Progressive to view those same signs and measurements through the prism of people. This is why the unemployment number should always be front and center on the radar.

That being said, there is good news out there to consider. Take a look at the following Forbes article regarding the recovery.

One piece I find very interesting if not necessarily the most important

And even with troubles at Toyota ( TM - news - people ) and a hangover from the cash-for-clunkers program, January auto sales are up 11% versus June, just before the clunkers program got started.

I wonder how many quotes I could pull about how the government couldn't run cash for clunkers, how all it will do is cannibalize all the sales into a short period of time.




This article was published prior to today's good news from the NY Fed regarding the growth in US manufacturing for the month of February.

Something has changed

I have been sensing for a few weeks now. I have thought about blogging about it. The main thougth process has continually come back to David Plouffe. It appears he has returned to a closer more involved position with the White House.

The news broke around January 23rd. This was just after the Scott Brown victory in Mass. If you compare that date to the linked graph you will see it corresponds to an even approval / disapproval rating before a slight and steady improvement.

It would be unwise to use the tracking polls to be the only measure of the effect in this change. We have had a bit of a bump with a half step back and now slight uptick. Looking at a graph the impression one gets is that the President may have hit bottom and maybe starting a course correction.



Some of things that one can point to are the State of the Union address, the face off with the Republican House Caucus, Biden on Meet the Press, and the impending Health Care Summit. The utilization of OFA (organizing for America) seems to have become a little more focuses as well.

In addition I was just reading some quotes regarding the "White House" stating that they allowed Congress too much latitude in the messaging on Health Care. That President Obama with adjust and focus the messaging.

I am not convinced of the results. However, it feels better for whatever that is worth. Candidate Obama frequented talked about the rope a dope on the campaign. It feels like he has decided to come off the ropes and start counter punching. Only time will tell if he took too much of a beating over the last 12 rounds (months) and can he be effective. Fingers are crossed.

I love maps: 2009 Federal Budget edition

This should be madatory reading for anyone out there yelling about balancing the budget. I am not suggesting balancing the budget is wrong, but one should know what they are talking about.


The pie chart is courtesy of Wikipedia. The summary below was lifted from 538.com.

Welfare for seniors, 34 percent: Social Security and Medicare wedges.


Defense, 22 percent (Defense and Homeland Security).


Welfare for everyone else, 20 percent ( Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance and Health & Human Services.)


Interest, 9 percent (Interest).

85% of the full budget is included in the above areas.

A break for some sad news

Fans of Discovery's The Deadliest Catch will be saddened to learn that Captian Phil Harris of the Cornelia Marie has died from complications from a stroke.

Give em Hell

A little help please

Someone correct me if I am wrong in my understanding and this is highly simplified.


We had a decade of watered down regulation and wall street risk taking. The financial system reaches the edge of collapse. The Bush administration reacts (in a way that would not have been their preference, however, they had little choice) Obama comes into power and administers the TARP programs of the Bush Administration. Wall Street continues to make stupid decisions regarding compensation.

Tea partiers get pissed. They want to punish Obama for? What exactly?



When I ask for someone to explain to me, I really mean it. I am truly trying to figure this out. When I attempt to wrap my head around this I keep hitting a road block.

I understand historically there tends to be great amount of anger during times of economic distress and change. I looked up the current unemployment numbers for insight.

by race

Blacks 16.5%
Hispanics 12.5%

Whites 8.7%

By age

Adult Men 10.%
Adult Women 7.9%

Teens 26.4%

According to the numbers above their is pain across the board but the hardest hit by far are young people of color. Neither of those groups seems to be represented by the Tea hater movement.

The other shoe is change. The very thing that Obama campaigned on. Could it be these people are really scared of or pissed about things changing and they can not control it anymore. I keep coming back to this. While I keep hearing it's not just the democrats it's both parties. However, this is then usually followed by a litany of right wing talking points. I really don't want to believe that what we are witnessing is simply a bunch of scared and angry old people resisting change and trying to fight for the "good ole" days finding an easy target in the first black President. I have to admit, when I was younger I didn't expect to see a black President this young in my life.

I don't want to water it down to simple transference of anger to the first black President. However, the more the tea haters talk the fewer options are left.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Hostage situation doesn't survive sunlight.

A couple post below is a story about Senator Richard Shelby placing a hold on 70 pending Obama nominees. He was concerned that the administration wasn't honoring his "earmarked" projects for his state fast enough. "Earmarks" where have I heard that dirty word before? His answer was to hold up the pending nominees until he got what he wanted. Kind of reminds me of "I'm taking my ball and going home".

Well. Somehow the story got out to the public and today Senator Shelby has lifted his hold. Of course he has lame ass excuse how he got what he wanted to save face. This is total BS. Even if that were true what would that say. Hey look at me I can totally screw with the federal government to make sure my state gets the money that I earmarked in the budget. If the Teabaggers were true to what they say their convictions are, if fox news was truly fair and balanced and believed in a fiscally Conservative government this should be front and center blasted from coast to coast as the type of government they are fed up with.

What are the chances that the fact Senator Shelby is an old, white, southern, "conservative", republican will allow for this to disappear from the rights radar. It kind of reminds me of Sarah Palin's calling for Rahm's firing for saying f****** retard and saying it was OK for Rush to say "calling those retards, retard". You know it was satire. To steal a line from Stephen Colbert what a "f****** retard" hey that was satire.

Tools

Follow this link to the New York Times for an interactive tool to help understand the US Budget.

Tonedeaf?

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/report-shelby-blocks-all-obama-nominations-in-the-senate-over-al-earmarks.php

I sense this an example of a Senator who has lost touch with the current political dynamic. Republicans had garnered an opening against President Obama and the Dems. Actions like this are going to play tight into the Presidents narrative. We'll see if he can capitalize on it. Shelby's saving grace here may be this is the Friday before the Superbowl.


It will be interredting to see this play out.

Keep the conversation going

President Obama continued his dialogue from last Friday afternoon when he addressed and ansered the Democratic Senators today.
What appears to be a truly cross idealogical movement to keep the conversation going has hit the web.
Using one of my favorite web tools demandquestiontime.com has generate an online petition to "demand question time" between the President and the minority party.
Have a look.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?formkey=dHkyOUtmajQ1M3dzU21jc2RBQ3ZfTmc6MA

The American Taliban (for real?)

The American Taliban is a book being researched and written by Kos. In support of the book Dailykos has conducted a poll with self-identified Republicans and the findings are down right scary. At the same time a friend sent me a chart laying out the beliefs of the religious in the American broken down by state.

Some of the more worrisome findings.

QUESTION: Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not?
YES NO
39 32

QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win?
YES NO
24 43

QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama is a racist who hates White people?
YES NO
31 36

QUESTION: Should contraceptive use be outlawed?
YES NO
31 56

I completely respect a person's different approach to governing even when I disagree. That is a theme I try to return to. However, the handful beliefs listed above go far beyond a disagreement over the best approach to lead. Impeach? for what? Contraception outlawed? Obama is racist who hates white people? Obama wants terrorist to win?

This is down right frightening!

This link from 538.com shows the difference between a pro and a novice. It is definately worth looking at. It breaks down the individual questions along the crosstabs. The point of the article is the uniformity of all groups. This is true with also the consistent theme that the south and males are even more "republican" than the republicans.



The corelation is striking.

Click on the chart below for a bigger view. A general finding the more religious a state the lower the iq, the more people in poverty, higher the crime rate, and less content and less healthy.






Take one part Dailykos poll above, one part Nate Silver's analysis, and one part the chart to the left and you get my wonderful blog posting. That and you also get Andrew Sullivans take

This, to my mind, is a function of ideology and religion, rather than ideas and politics, being the core elements of a party. It's also a function of Fox News creating a national ideology through a national propaganda arm of the RNC.

Bump and Trend

There is no reason (yet) to believe this is anything but a short term bump. It is fun to look at none the less. The graph depicts the two national tracking polls of President Obama's approval rating. The dates are Tuesday the 26 the day before the Sate of the Union address through today.

The initial reports were that he got only a modest bump of 1 point from the State of the Union. However, couple that with the events from Friday through Monday and it is possibly the beginning of a trend. Without having looked at the internal numbers too carefully, my instinct tells me many a number of dissatisfied supporters have been impressed over the last week and currently are back in the fold.

I also suspect that there might be some modest movement at the margins from independents. It is fun to watch. That is until it reverses.


Click here if the graph doesn't work

Okay if the graph doesn't show up, this is what it says

Jan 26 51% disprove 47% approve = -4% approval rating
Feb 2 43% disprove 51% approve = 8% approval rating

Totaling a 12 point swing in less than a week. Again the samples are small and the time frame is short, but definately worth watching.

Act II

This afternoon President Obama holds a Q&A with America via YouTube. Which you can watch here at 1:45 Eastern.

One of the things I so enjoyed about Fridays Q&A is that it wasn't poll tested, it wasn't message oriented, or tv posturing. The truth in normal debates today both candidates are over coached and so very focused on poll tested themes that even the person you prefer is not fully realized.

Last Friday President Obama was not merely posturing, he wasn't attempting to stay on message, or simply trying to avoid mistakes as so often is the purpose of debates that result in the candidates talking past each other.

Hopefully we get more of that today. Hopefully we get more of that same kind of dialogue that began again on Friday.

This is one of the great assets this President possesses. The ability to carry on an adult conversation with the American people. This is not easy in the fast paced multiple challenge world in which Obama is the President. The American people are just as busy with just as many challenges (if not on the same scope). That may have one of President Obama's greatest failings over the last half of last year.

If I remember correctly Obama was out in front of the American people frequently in the first half of the year. To the point there were concerns of overexposure. I think the importance of this is that most people genuinely like President Obama when they see him and hear him. Except for the committed right wingers, most people like and trust him even when they do not agree with him. There is a sincerity and mutual respect that he exudes. We saw that Friday, while he was feisty at times he was always respectful, mature, sincere, and thoughtful.

Professor President

Below is the link for the Q&A session President Obama had with the House Republican caucus on Friday. I lamented that I wish it had been televised in Prime Time. Well. Ask you shall receive.

Speaking of Televised. It turns out that both CNN and MSNBC specially televised the event on Friday evening during primetime.

It appears CNN edited it for time and provided it free of commentary while MSNBC also edited it and provided the talking head commentary from the Usual Suspects.

Fox News, not so much. Not only did they not rerun it Friday night. They cut away from it on Friday as it was happening live. Roger Ailes was asked about that decision on Sunday and his answer was: Fox is the most trusted news network. HMMMM.