My take

I have been chewing on the Palin pick for a couple of days now. The most effective thing it has done it has froze everthing. So many people are so confused by it they are trying to process all the angles.


If this is truly a play for disillusioned Hillary supporters, and I am not convinced it is, I don't thinks this is going to work. Most Hillary supporters were so loyal to her due to thier sharing her journey over the last many years. They also felt comforted by what they felt was her fighting spirit in the latter parts of the primary. These two factors are not transferrable to another person. Those who were so loyal to Hillary as a result of thier feminist beliefs will find nothing comforting in Palin's policy positions. What is more I tend to believe the most strident Hillary supporters, not simply Obama haters, are going to be insulted. They truly felt that Hillary had earned the nomination. One may be able to argue that point but they believed it. This is one reason why the entitlement aspect of her campaign was so powerfull early in the campaign. She earned, she deserved it, it was her turn. Now there is a chance that some other woman is going to get it simply becuase a man deemed it so. I personally find it insulting and I was never a Hillary supporter.

Now what I believe the real purpose of the pick is a couplefold.
First and maybe most important to McCain's ego it is an attempt to reestablish the Maverick persona. Let's face it by any objective over the last couple of years McCain has fallen in lock step with the right wing power base. This is the base that chewed him and spit him out 8 years ago. He had to tow the line to win this nomination and the perception that he has lost his independance and edge was definately taking hold. McCain thinks he is being clever and calculated because this pick may have the short term effect of both reigniting the right wing base and reinforcing his maverick message. Palin's staunch pro-life, anti-global warming and other standard position has indeed put a burst into the right wing machine.

After a couple of days attempting to examine this objectively this pick may reexcite the rightwing base but I think it may well back fire on the other goal. Carefull examination allows one to determine that this was politically calculated pick. This is so counter to what he has been hypocritically preach about Obama. "He would rather lose a war and win an election". Does this pick mean McCain would rather win an election then hire the most qualified or even a qualified candidate. This pick also calls into question his judgement and temperment in making his most important decision to date. One keeps hearing how this pick is a gamble. One question is all one needs to ask. If we are in such a terrible clash of good vs. evil, democracy vs. terror, etc. does America need to take this kind of gamble. It is okay for him to risk his campaign, it is not ok for him to risk our security.

There is one final consideration that may be in play. One has to look at this very skepitcally. It is possible that the McCain camp knew that the media and the Obama campaign would jump all over the obvious, which is her lack of foreign affiars qualification. They may be thinking that as long as the next 65 days are about who is the most qualified to keep us safe McCain will win.

Off Topic

As I sit here waiting for Barack to address the country, Mid Missouri is undergoing one of those awe inspiring thunderstorms. You know 'em, if your lucky enough to experience them. One of those air cleaning, tree whipping, thunder booming, 4th of July lightening works storms. I was sitting on the the patio acknowldeging that mother nature is in complete control and I am but a witness drinking a cold beer.

I love that smell, I love that feeling. Can't help but sense the winds of Change blowing.

Something Amazing

Something truly amazing just happened. One of the talking heads on TV just praised Barack Obama. Imagine that three days into the Convention and someone is praising him for his political force. Acknowledging he won as the best candidate. Not the best black candidate. Just the best candidate. Now this commentator could have gone farther and acknowledge that this candidate actually beat Hillary Clinton. We can't expect too much, I guess.

This talking head wasn't speculating on Bill's speech, wondering if Hillary did enough, reviewing Hillary's speech. It is amazing. This talking head was Joe Scarborough of all people. But it doesn't matter because the whole of the media has set the focus and the narrative. It seems that they have forgotten the Barack Obama won. He defeated the the best known, best funded candidate to ever run for President.

2.5 - 3 Hours that count

When it comes down to it only five speeches are going to count. Michelle's, Hillary's, Bill's, Joe's and Barack's. Most people with busy lives are not going to hear or see the rest of the speakers. Except local news coverage of their local politicians. This is one of the smarter ideas. If you have noticed there have been a number of speakers from a number of swing states speaking.

So there are five speeches about 2.5 - 3 hours that is going to matter. The Obama campaign has decided to use them very specifically. When the Bush - McCain convention comes up next week and it is all negativety and all POW all time there will be stark contrast on the two approaches.

Could it be a gamble?

Many people may not like it. First among them may well be the analyst. The red meat beat up on George Bush - John McCain ain't coming. I get the sense that Barack Obama wants this convention to be emblematic of his campaign theme of hope and unity of people from different backgrounds.

We have seen the kind of campaign John McCain has run and most likely will run. I believe the hope is that Obama plans on allowing the contrast of Hope and fear plays itself out.

In doing so he is putting a lot of trust in people.

Quick thoughts on last night

I sensed a disconnect between the talking heads and the people in America last night. Another explanation could be generational.

What I am speaking to regards what was considered the highlight of the night last evening. I was extremely touched by the presence of Senator Kennedy and I refer to his presence on the stage, in the room, and in the hearts and mines of people. It was a wonderful moment and one that had to be uplifting for the man and the party.

The professionals and the pundits were evidently moved by this moment. For myself and I sense for many many people at home watching last nights events, Michelle's speech was as moving if not more so. I freely admit this could be simply the result of my personal perspective.

I have always admired the intensity and passion that Michelle brings to her words. These words thread through the narrative in a way that touched the every day lives of millions of Americans. She reached out to single moms, new dads, grandparents, and little kids. This narrative reinforced the idea and the fact that we are in this together. This narrative spoke to the need to come together as Americans to fix what we see as broken. She spoke to the ability that when united we can and have a responsibility to fight for a new direction and a better tommorrow for our children and our selves.

Of course the punditry spoke to the fact that she was able to rehabilitate herself, reintroduce herself and make amends. This is complete and utter BULLSHIT. It is bull that she would have to. It is bull that the press went along pushing this conecpt. It is bull that the press allowed and even the campaign allowed that this narrative to take hold. It is complete bull that the republicans pushed the concept that this woman was some how less american than anyone that is going to be in the convention hall next week in Minnesota.

So the reviews came in and they were pretty much the same across the board. Good speech she did what she had to do. She did what she had to do? What the ....? Is it possible somehow the bar was allowed to be set too high. I have to be honest it was the second best convention speech I can remember.

Good speech, but real highlight was Kennedy's speech.

I wish to take absolutely nothing away from Senator Kennedy especially considering his courage and conviction to make his apperance possible. Again maybe this is generational, maybe it didn't touch me as much because I wasn't in the room at the time. I just sense that the punditry is out of touch with those of us sitting at home.

How does John McCain feel about Hillary?

Once again, it would be nice if we could know who the real John McCain is. Maverick, straight talk express, or hyper ambitious say anyting do anything politician. It is scary there may be Clinton supporters that will fall for this.

Taxes

The has been a lot of ads attacking the Obama economic plan on taxes. They have been effective enough to muddy the water. I will attempt to clarify some of the differences between the two candidates proposals. Today I will start with the Estate tax proposal.



Under Obama's plan

A married couple will be able to leave an estate to their heirs of upto 7 million dollars tax free.

Once the estate climbs over the 7 million mark there is a graduated tax structure in place starting at 18% for the first $10,000 up to a 45% bracket once the estate is over 8.5 million.

My quick calculation with the help of a National Law Center spreadsheet shows that an estate that was 8.5 Million dollars would incur a tax bill of $555,800.00.

That would leave $7,944,200.00 to pass on to the chosen heir(s).

This would equal an effective tax rate of 6.5% tax rate on a 8.5 Million dollar estate.

The 45% tax rate only applies to the estate after the 8.5 million dollar mark and only after the estate has already passed along 7.9 million to the heir(s).


One last piece of inormation the McCain Estate tax plan as proposed would lower US revenues by 278 billion dollars over 8 years that would either have to be borrowed or cut from budget or a combination of both.

I have added a report from CNNMoney that addresses this issue.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/06/smallbusiness/estate_tax.fsb/

And the Winner is ....Part Deux!

It appears we were right with our post earlier in the week regarding Obama's pick for VP being Joe Biden. The Obama team did a good job of throwing everyone off the track until Friday night. One has to give them credit for their execution on pulling this off.

Now what to think about Biden. As I have often said I was pulling for Clark and it became clear that it was not going to be him. This may have been one of the advantages for the way the Obama team handled this anouncement. People like myself came to accept that maybe their man / woman may not get the nod. More importantly people started to worry that OMG fill in the blank may get the offer. Once Biden was anounced I can assure you there was a collective sigh of relief by a large number of Obama supporters.

Biden who was not the favorite of majority of people mererly 1 week ago. He came to be a very acceptable compromise. I have nothing against Joe Biden. As a matter of fact as I have mentioned before he would have been my first alternative to Obama. For whatever reason he did not pop into my mind originally as the VP pick. The more I consider the pick the more I like it on many levels. There is a constant need to remind myself to look at it as objectively as possible and not simply attempt to rationalize this pick. So here it goes.

The most important job of the VP, sad but true, is to be ready to step in incase of the worst possible situation. How does Biden measure up. It is difficult to think someone who would be more prepared to govern on all fronts foreign, domestic, and griever in chief in this awful scenario. Senator Biden brings to the table unrivaled experience on many fronts that would be immensely helpful in this situation. Not only his experience on the important matters of the day, but also the great deal of respect Senator Biden has earned over his 30 years as a public servant. This respect comes from both sides of the aisle and both houses of Congress. This relationship with Congress will be important in his grasping the reins of the government.

Politically, there are several fronts that are to be considered. All the chatter is that Senator Biden brings Foreign Affairs weight to the team. This is true. That I believe is only a small part of the political calculus that is at play. I am guessing that the Obama camp believes that if they can shoreup the traditional democratic base, that Obama can reach more than enough of the independant and more importantly the new voters to win the race.

Biden's appeal in fact may be a play to put to ease a number of voters who would normally lean to the Democratic party but have concerns about Obama. Many of these people would cite various reasons for the concern. This will be the McCain strategy. It will be to provide these people with an excuse to not vote for Obama. These very people who know that their interest and policy concerns line up with Obama, however, can't come to pull the lever or fill in the oval. That is what McCain's who ad campaign is about. To allow people a reason to vote against Obama with out feeling the guilt of discrimination.

Continued later.....

Why

Having looked over a number of entries I was a little disappointed in myself. The tone was more negative than I would like. This could be a reaction to all the negative campaigning McCain has been doing. That is irrelevant I can't control what someone else does. I can only control how I react.

Taking a quick reflection of why I care and why I came to support Obama. I find the answer in two places. This is one campaign, one politician, one leader who is working to bring people together. This theme was introduced to America in the 2004 keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. It seems this is a rarity in current day politics. We have been so consumed by the divide and conquer approach to politics we had come to accept it as normal. It is so refreshing to see that people are coming together to build something, to take control.

I spent a day at a phone banking center this past Febuary in Missouri for Obama. The diversity in the room was so reassuring so uplifting. There were only maybe a dozen people there. However, we were old, young, middle aged, black, white, asian, students, retirees, stay at home parents. That experience was very reassuring that this was more than just a political campaign. This is what can be done when people join forces to make something positive happen.

The other reason I have come to support this campaign, this movement is my son. I have mentioned in previous post I attempt to approach politics from the perspective of my son. From the perspective of little man I am looking toward the kind of world that will be there for him as he grows up. Again I am attracted to the diversity of the movement. Having grown up in a small town in the Midwest diversity consisted of pretty much Catholic or Protestant. I am proud to report us catholics outnumbered the protestants by a pretty wide margin.

Responsibility, over the last 8 years we as a country have been more than willing to pas the buck onto the next generation. I am of the age that I can remember the budget deficits and the national debt clock. It was a time when we thought we would never be able to pay down the debt. Some real head way was made during the Clinton administration. It doesn't matter who gets the credit, it was happening. The Bush administration has come in and totally reversed course and accelerated the problem. I can remember studying about how much of our tax revenue was needed to simply service our debt. We are back with that problem, compounded by the fact that so much of that debt is held by foreign interest. This can provide a real destabilizing effect on our country and our economy. So many people I meet feel we need to take on not only person responsiblity but also generational responsibility.

Shared interest, we as a world, as a country, as a community are interconnected. Sorry there is no way around it. This needs to be reflected in our nation conversation. Foreign policy, the health care debate, tax policy are all chained to this reality of shared interest. We have two choices. We can stick are head in the sand and deny it or we can open up to it and own it. Senator Obama's background his life story has provided him with a unique understanding of this importance. Just as important he has a unique experience of living this in his personal life and bring it to reality in his practice and politics.

War Policy, this maybe what gained him the most attention on the national stage. He seemed to have a uncanny prescience regarding the Iraq War. Having skimmed his 2002 speech it is very enlightening to his approach. He makes clear he is not against all war. However, he was definately against this war at this time and he laid out his reasoning in a very coherent and precise manner.

I sat down to type a few lines and have gone way past what I intended to say. It is good to pull one's self out of the negative back and forth of the campaign. There will be plenty of time for that over the next two and half months. It is important that we continue to be motivated by the positive energy and direction that Obama presents us as a possibility. This was just one more reminder on how easy that is to do.

Old Dog's trick no longer works - McCain ducks another one

Is it possible one of John McCains good old fashion tactics of dealing with tough questions is finally catching up to him. From observations of his campaign over the last few months a common element comes up. It seems whenever there is a question that he doesn't want to answer, doesn't have the answer, or is not sure which is the politically correct answer he punts. Now let me give you a little straight talk here. "I'll have to get back to you on that".

Interestingly in all the policitcal news I watch, which my wife will tell you is way too much, I don't ever recall the follow up information being reported. It is quite possible that Senator McCain having courted such a comfortable relationship withe press over that last 26 years that he has been able to get away with this tactic. To be somewhat fair with the press we all know the news cycle is about twenty four hours long and by the time anyone might remember that McCain didn't answer yesterdays questions the press is jumping on the band wagon of the next days story.

He has been able to get away with this mode of operation for as long as the MSM was complicit and they were the only outlet. Now that there so many people paying attention and so many avenues to amplify it. He is not able to simply move onto the next press cycle. The people have a memory past the 24 hour media cycle it is becoming more difficult for McCain to just wish away the tough questions.

This first truly caught my attention when asked about his position on birth control being covered by insurance. This was of course in response to statements that Carly Fiorina had made. The embarrasing video shows McCain him hawing around the question. There were a couple of ways to interpert this 1) he didn't know 2) he didn't know what the right answer (politically) was and was attempting to punt. I have gotten the impression he is not accustomed to getting tough follow up questions on these issues and therefore the thorny question goes away to be forgotten.





It is quite possible this is what happened in the most recent housing flap. Not so much that he doesn't really know what he owns, but simply didn't want to say. The out of touch narrative is the one carrying the day and neatly dovetails into a very damaging storyline. However, is the second option possibly a more sinister and accurate picture.

Next Chapter

Have had a busy day today. This is the little man's last day before school starts. We kept busy with pretty much what ever he wanted. I have had the good fortune to have been a stay at home dad. The blessing is not lost on me. I think I am especially appreciative due to the fact that there was a year and half duration that I worked outside the house. This was a good thing as it exposed little man to some one other than myself and provided him with the socialization opportunities. In addition from my perspective it helped solidify why the time was important to him, my wife, and myself.

Having experienced both sides of this situation I am extremely grateful that it worked out for us as well as it did. I have an appreciation for the families who can not / do not have this opportunity. Not to mention the single parent families.

Tomorrow comes with excitement for the continuing chapters in his life and our life. The question of what are you going to do now comes up. The only answer at this time is to keep doing what we've been doing. I will need to become more disciplined at keeping productive. Reflecting on the year and half that we both worked brings a number of things to the front. How does one deal with the number of days off from school, sick days, Dr. appointments, my wife's traveling with work. A part time job could be do doable, however, I would probably be pretty demanding regarding scheduling.

This blog is probably a piece of the answer to the question above. Looking at a number of volunteer opportunities as well. Of course there will be a large chunk of time assisting his teacher and the school. It is interesting, I have stated a number of times that after becoming a father my focus on politics has been from the perspective of my son. Tonight's reflection kind of ties it all together. At once it is a reminder of the important things in life; being a good father, a good husband, setting a strong example for my son, assisting my parents as needed. Then on the other hand it reminds me of why I care about our political future, our political process and how it effects people on a street level sense.

Huh??

The timing for the VP announcement has been leaked as the text and emails are set to go out Friday afternoon / evening. This will be followed up by a rally Saturday day in Springfield, IL. This of course is where he kicked it all off last Febuary. What I don't understand is the waiting till the Friday afternoon news cycle to announce. I am not doubting that this is a well thought out plan. As I rack my brains the only thought that comes to mind is that there is the possibility of a let down once the pick is out.

The campaign has done a wonderful job of fueling the media speculation and seems to have thrown everyone off on the final pick. The expectation at this point may be higher than any VP candidate can deliver. This could possibly explain the timing. Allowing the news cycle to roll into the excitement of the convention and not allowing for too great of a let down. I certainly hope not. Then again they could be setting everyone to look to Friday in order to tamp down on the wild speculation and then release it earlier to everyone's surprise.

Here comes the fall out

We are three days removed from the forum on faith and the fall out is here. Two thoughts on this matter. The first regarding the Rich comment the add is out by the DNC.


Second. Did the Obama campagin masterfully play the the media and the McCain campaign regarding the results of the forum. It seems the storyline of McCain won lasted less than a day. The story for the last two days has been whether or not McCain was in Cone of Silence and did he or did he not have access to questions. Is the Obama team good enought to have gotten that quote out to Andrea Mitchell knowing the McCain campaign would have to jump all over and change the topic?

And the Winner is...?

Is it possible we have a winner. The page seems to think so.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/19/say-it-is-so-joe/

I have been pulling for Clark as I have mentioned previously. It seems that is not even in the question at this hour. Having been an Obama supporter from the get go. Biden was always my top alternative. He has a great command of the issues, especially foreign policy. He is not afraid to speak his mind. He appears to come to his progressive policies through his faith but does not push his faith. Follow the link to fill in the blanks on Senator Biden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_biden

There is still plenty of room and time for this speculation to be totally wrong, but this will be interesting reading until there is hard news.

Take a look at Intrade once again to see how things are shaping up for Joe.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Cone of Silence

If you have been reading 'round the web today you have come across the question of whether or not John McCain was actually placed in the "Cone of Silence" during Barack Obama's questioning at the Faith on Forum. It appears that NBC's Andrea Mitchell is getting some back up for her reporting that the Obama campaign express concern that McCain may have had access to the questioning that Senator Obama received.

I'll let the reporters and campaigns hash that out. I do feel a responsibility to those that may not fall into the proper age group and may not recall the cones of silence. Please find the instructional video that follows.

Cone of Silence

Testing 1,2,3

I admit I am knew to blogging.  I am sure this is painfully obvious.  So as I learn my way around I figured I'd open up the process for all (3 of  you) to see. I am testing my ability to post via email.  If you are reading this consider this test a success.

Biden in Georgia

As we come down to the wire regarding VP selection Senator Biden pops back up to the short list. It is being reported that his presence in Georgia has been requested by the President of Georgia.

This got me thinking about what he brings to the table as a VP candidate. The video below is a trait that could be truly beneficial to Obama. Especially considering the weight Biden brings to the words he speaks, even if he does speak too much or too loose at times. Considering the renewed mantra of the McCain campaign is POW, POW, POW. Can it be long before we have a noun, a verb and "POW" McCain.

Grammer Class

Lasting Affect

I confess. I did not watch the Forum on Faith last night. I like most everyone who is not addicted to politics did something else. In my case dinner with the in-laws followed by rooting Michael Phelps on to his 8th gold medal.

The quick impression from the reviews and reports is that McCain won. Whatever that truly means. The other nugget that keeps coming up and may prove to have a longer lasting affect was Exxon John's answer regarding "What is rich?".

$5 million in income would qualify as rich according our man from Arizona. This is one snippet that could play out quite effectively in an ad campaign that fits an emerging narrative regarding Mr. McCain. It will be interesting if any of this is remembered through the noise of the Olympics, VP, and the convention.

It could be easy to use this in an ad in a couple of months. We'll have to wait and see.

McCain '00 Vs. McCain '08

Gov. Dean said it best, John McCain of 2000 would not even vote for John McCain of 2008. People feel they know and are comfortable with John McCain. After all they have seen and heard of him for over 20 years. The only time he usually popped up on the national radar was when he took a stand against the republican party. Therefore a caricture has been developed that sticks with the public. I am doubtful if many could truly tell where he stands on any issues other than war (for more of it). It is hard to blame the public as it seems John doesn't even know or remember where he stands. Plus as we have found out he doesn't even speak for the John McCain Campaign.

I have frequently thought that McCain could be a principled compromise as a presidentail candidate even considering some of the truly conservative positions he has clung to. We must remember though that he lost the primary in 2000 and badly. It seems he isn't as slow learner as we thought. He has showed an amazing ability to bend truly hardened principles for political expedience and hide behind his built up reputation of honor while throwing bombs radomly at Obama. The spotlight needs to turn back to who is John McCain and what does he stand for.

I'll have a Double Talk McCain latte

VP Timing

The Obama campaign sent out an invitation for email addresses and text numbers last week. You know the one, letting us simpletons be notified directly from the campaign when a VP candidate is picked and announced. It is a great way of connecting directly with tech savvy supporters. More importantly it is a great way of harvesting contact information for future announcements and attempts to motivate supporters.

I have already received the first follow up contact requesting zip code info. This way they will be better able to fine tune the messaging. All a very smart and exciting way of organizing I must admit.

We have all been trying to read the tea leaves as to who will be named. Bayh, Kaine, Clark....? My personal preference in the field is Clark. great article compaing and contrasting Clark and McCain. However, as each day goes by it seems less likely to me. I do believe the Russo - Georgia incident definitely raised his stock.

It is impressive considering an announcement will be made within a week that there has not been any significant leaks.

Regarding the timing of the announcement I have been having as much fun attempting to discern this as who the actual candidate will be. We will not see an announcement on a Friday as that would just bury the story. My thought is it has to be during the week to get a couple of good news cycles out of the announcement. Monday seems like a bad day as the news will be catching up from the weekend news including all the Olympic results. Leaving Tuesday or Wednesday. This would result in a two or three days of coverage with a slight let up for the conclusion of the Olympics next weekend as they extinguish the flame and then convention will reignite the excitement.

Now for full disclosure I came up with this hypothesis last Sunday and suspected it would have been last Wednesday.

Public Vs. Mccain

Hello Old Friends, Hello New Friends

I've got too much to say and my five year old isn't intereseted. So this will be the repository of my mental ramblings on topics centered mostly around politics. However, as my interests stretch from sports (Go Cubs), Wine (New World Reds), running (1 marathon completed), traveling and food, I may tend to lose focus. As a 40 year old stay at home dad I have plenty of time to think about my family, my self and my future.



Politically I consider my self to be a pragmatic progressive but I am certain I stole that concept from someone else. I just did a search and found a thepragmaticprogressive.blogspot.com/ blog hosted here at blogspot.



I need to go and count change with my little guy. See ya later.