Bachmann pulls to the front, Cain settles into the middle of the pack

In the horse race news of the GOP Primary fight PPP is out with a couple of polls providing good news for Michelle Bachmann and to some extent Herman Cain.

"In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman."

Bachmann has jumped to the top of the pack in Iowa, Montana, and Oregon in the most recent polling. Cain is sitting comfortably in the middle tier of candidates. I suspect the Cain would be polling slightly higher right now if Rep. Bachmann hadn't caught on so wildly. (Quick note: Montana and Oregon polls do not include Palin).

The real take away at this early junction is that there is a solid faction of maybe the "establishment Republicans" that are attempting to solidify around an "electable" candidate such as Romney and a solid anti-Romeny pro "purity" faction searching for their candidate. Today that candidate is Michelle Bachmann.

The wave of polling just prior to these last three releases showed said consolidation around Romney and these most recent polls maybe showing a reaction to this perceived agreement on Romney. All this said, the long term significance is limited. At this time the most significant aspect of this polling is for Pawlenty. If Bachmann sucks all the oxygen out of Iowa and Romney runs the table in New Hampshire the Pawlenty campaign may be very short lived.

As expected Cain jumps in popularity

As I predicted back in a June 2nd post Herman Cain is jumping in popularity among the Republican faithful.

The latest poll from PPP shows Herman Cain in 2nd behind Mitt Romney.

Romney leads our newest poll with 22% to 17% for Herman Cain, 15% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, 8% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.

It's interesting that Cain has surpassed Palin as the candidate of choice for the 'I'd rather lose than sacrifice' crowd.

Quick 2 Cents

I was only able to watch last night's debate for a short period of time. My limited take away is that Bachmann may have eliminated Palin as a candidate. While I believe Rep. Bachmann may at times be on the edge of courting the batshit crazy members of the party, she showed an ability that Palin never has.

Michele Bachmann seemed to be comfortable and in command at the podium. She was able to generate red meat sound bites in a manner that Sarah simply can't do. Ms. Bachmann should be very well positioned to assume large groups of Sarah's following and a number of former Huckabee supporters. Those who were looking to support Cain, may also be inclined to give Bachmann a second look.

(I don't think Palin was ever running) If Palin were to jump in the race seemed to be breaking down to two camps. Romney was winning the "reasonable" "mainstream" better chance to win camp and Palin representing the "purity" "passion" camp. It appears the Rep. Bachmann may have leap frogged to the front of the pack in the latter camp.

All this being said, tomorrow is another news cycle and things can change quicker than the weather.

After putting together this quick post I drifted upon 538's article which articulates some of the same themes as above.

"The comparison between Ms. Bachmann and Sarah Palin is perhaps made too easily. But as I remarked on Twitter during the debate, if there is a constituency of voters trying to decide between the two, Ms. Bachmann has a lot to offer. She’s considerably sharper on her feet than Ms. Palin, and has more discipline. She does not have the baggage of “blood libel,” a reality show, or having prematurely quit her term as governor. Her family story — a mother to 23 foster children, as she frequently reminded us — is every bit as compelling. She has considerably better favorability ratings — Americans who are familiar with her split about evenly on whether they like her or not, which is not true for Ms. Palin. She has a geographic advantage in Iowa, has devoted more time to her presidential campaign and has a reputation as a strong fundraiser."

Updated: with necessary caveat re: Bachmann via Jonathan Bernstein

"Yeah, I'm still very much a Michele Bachmann skeptic. Yes, she got good reviews last night. Also, Herman Cain got good reviews after the last debate, and Donald Trump had momentum before that. She's less implausible than those two, but next time she'll have to do more to impress, and we'll see where it takes her."

Twitter oh Twitter what have you wrecked now? - Kinder edition

I first became aware of Lt. Governor Peter Kinder's twitter problem back in February. This Politico article describes the tweet in question.

In February, he tweeted that his Democratic friends “can’t stand being reminded of the century-long vicious, racist, bigoted, KKK, segregationist, history of their party” — and added a smiley face to the end.


I remember responding with something to the effect of

"@PeterKinder Are you going to stick with defending liberal Republicans over Conservative Democrats?"

It became pretty clear once I started following him on Twitter that he had a discipline problem and a poor sense of appropriateness. More tweets followed and at times I responded to the thin air of the twitterverse. I recall Lt. Governor Kinder repeating the "lie of the Year" that Health Care Reform cost thousands of jobs, and I was finally blown away by the fact that he felt it was appropriate for a sitting state goverment official to be linking to Andrew Bretibart. To be honest I was embarrassed and said so. Kinder added his uninformed two sense to the hugely important Common at the White House debate.

It appears I am not the only one embarrassed by Lt. Peter Kinder's actions. Politico provides a tale of Missouri Republicans concerns about Kinder's chances at winning the Governors race in 2012.

Fox News the Next Crossfire

Jon Stewart is often credited with destroying the long running CNN franchise Crossfire with his appearance.



I have often thought that he is intent on the same result for Fox News. He is known for a relentless attack on Fox News' lack of ethical "journalism". One may suggest his focus on Fox "News" is partisan. His response might be something like this.

I know I criticize Fox News a lot, but only because you're a terrible, cynical, disingenious News Organization

Fox News the Lupus of News!


It appears that Fox "News" is having a bit of a ratings slide as per the following article. Are the two related?


Jon Stewart's ratings are higher than all of Fox News

"Jon Stewart is the biggest threat to Fox News’ future out there. He is literally teaching his audience, which is bigger than FNC’s, how to see through the partisan propaganda that Rupert Murdoch has based his network on. Stewart is educating an entire generation of viewers on how to watch cable news, or more specifically how not to watch Fox News."

As a result:

This effect is especially strong with views under the age of AARP eligibility. It appears that Fox News is preaching to the Choir while The Daily Show is winning the converts. (disclaimer: 16 months ago Glenn Beck was the king of TV, so things can change) The difference this time the popularity is based on busting the bubble of the blowhard.

"While Stewart is on the rise, Fox News had a really, really bad May. Total viewership was down 10%, and Fox News lost viewers in the 25-54 demo in every prime time show. Bill O’Reilly was down 9%, Sean Hannity was down 6%, and Greta Van Susteren dropped 12%."

For the record, My guess

RE: the Weiner affair.

Here is my guess on what went down. My guess is that Mr. Weiner did in fact send the pictures to a lady in question. The lady in question is, I believe a middle aged women. I am guessing that the pictures were part of an on going chat between Rep. Weiner and this unnamed lady and were either solicited or at least welcomed.

In addition I believe somehow one or all these pictures got in another persons hands. At this point the picture was posted to Rep. Weiner's Yfrog account. Thus creating the story allowing for the release of the additional pictures and the story of the unnamed lady.

I am guessing it wouldn't be much of a real story if Rep Weiner simply sent some embarrassing pictures to a lady who asked for them or at the least welcomed them in a consensual manner.

Watching a Breitbart scandal unfold is like watching a "magician" do a card trick, your always looking for the mis-direction. Frequently with the Breitbart gang the trick is to lead with the crazy over the top innuendo attention getting headline grabbing statements. They allow the news cycle to carry the headline and then afterward, the truth trickles out. Resulting in everyone remembering the front page story and not the page 6 retraction.

I really got this sense when Breitbart announced that this unnamed lady would come forward - tomorrow. A day after the release of the additional photos. Why? My guess is the tale the lady will tell will not be as damaging as the imaginations of everyone speculating overnight.

Rep. Weiner will be addressing the situation today at 4:00 3Central. We'll know more then, maybe.

For the record I looked my response to the Rep. Chris Lee affair back in February and my response was

KurtJack "If the picture(s) was all there was to the Rep. Chris Lee story I would defend him, that this was no one's concern."
9 Feb

Update:

And I was wrong!

American History "Tea Party" edition

Palin gives Bachman a run for her money on American History.

Mistakes made, leasons learned?

When the new jobs number were released this morning(a very anemic 54,000) I instantly harkened back to a column by @Paul Krugman. The article spells out the danger of a too soft and too short of a stimulus. He argued you'll get one chance at a stimulative fix to the economy and that if you come up short danger lies ahead.

I believe the analogy was taking a running start at climbing a steep hill. If do so you better make sure you make it to the top of the hill. If you don't you'll end up slide back down the hill worn out and not prepared to make another stronger run at it.

I had intended to search for the article, quote and link it. Well Mr. Krugman beat me to it this morning with his column "The Mistake of 2010".

Update:

Here is the original post

Here is the exclamation to the analogy

I’d add that there may also be a political tipping point: if the stimulus package is too weak, conservatives will pile on after it fails to deliver, claiming that the whole concept has been discredited.

Election Perspective

I wanted to get this down somewhere and felt if I tweet it some might find it offensive.

I have for awhile now said Huntsman is the GOP candidate that I think has the best chance of truly challenging Obama. His recent showing in a PPP poll of Iowa shows the major hurdle he has in front of him. PPP only found one Republican voter in Iowa that supported him as their first choice.

I have also been keeping an eye on Herman Cain for a few months. I first heard about him on the net somewhere writing a poem about Jesus. Then about a month ago when reading through the comment section of a story on the GOP hopefuls, it clicked.

This particular commenter said he was supporting Cain, because Cain would split the black vote and win the Republican vote ensuring a path to the Whitehouse. I initially dismissed that as simplistic thinking along the lines that Palin would split the women vote.

Cain did not embarrass himself in the first televised debate about a month back. He has seen his popularity within the GOP base increase of late. I just saw an article that said Herman Cain's candidacy proves that the tea party isn't racist. Hmmm. I am not trying accuse anyone of anything. That logic does sound an awful lot like "I am not racist, some of my best friends are black". Substitute candidates for friends.

My only point at this time is,I expect Mr. Cain to gain some more serious traction in the near future within the Tea Party segment of the Republican party. If Palin doesn't run (which I have serious doubts that she will) a sizable portion of her base could follow Mr. Cain.