Recount Redux... MN Senate Race

Total Votes 2,883,317

error rate .005

possible
number of
errors 14,415

votes that
separate
candidates. 206



I have been watching the Franken - Coleman Senate race with some interest over the past week. This especially interesting to me as I witnessed the recount of the Governors race in Washington State in 2004.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004

This race was between Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R).
The "initial results" were reported on Nov. 17 as Rossi leading by 261 votes. Washington state has a law calling for an automatic recount of any election being decided by less than .5%. This is similar to the Minnesota law. The reason the .5% is common is that test have shown that optical voting machines have error rate on average of you guessed it .5%.

The automatic recount was reported on Nov. 24 with Rossi's lead dwindling to 42 votes. Washington state laws allow for the candidate to request one hand or one machine recount. This requires that the candidate puts up a $730,000.00 deposit. If the election is overturned the candidate gets the money refunded. If there is no overturning of the election the candidate forfeits the money and the state uses it to offset the cost of the recount. Gregoire requested the recount and provided the deposit with the assistance of the State Democratic Party.

After much back and forth, name calling, and legal challenges Gregoire prevailed. The final certified vote showed Gregoire winning by 129 votes.

This is going to be the closest example to use to watch the Minnesota recount. What is going to happen is the candidate with the initial lead is going to claim victory and refute all other counts. The leading side will accuse any election official who does not side with them in stopping the legally defined and required process as untrustworthy (which is what happened to Sam Reed (R) in Washington state).

Concepts that are important but little thought about until a situation like these occur. First an election is a process and actually a very long drawn out process. It makes for great TV on election night but that is only the beginning. This seldom occurs to us as most elections are well outside the margin of error. Take for example Missouri's vote for President on election night the difference was reported as 5,900 votes, if you look today it is closer to 4,900 votes. This is a swing of 1,000 votes in a week. Has anyone heard of any complaints or screams of foul play, magical ballots? Yet we pretend to be horrified by a 500 vote difference from election night in MN senatorial race. Guess what the difference is.

The second concept that is easily tossed aside by politicians fighting for their political life is that the vote belongs to the voter. There is an assumption that votes for a politician belong to them. Not so. Those votes belong to the voter who has a right that was won through much blood through many years. The state has an obligation to secure that right for the voter. The voter has a right to vote and for the vote to be counted the state has a responsibility to see that it happens.

We must remember that the optical scanners that are widely used are done so very much for convience. This is fastest possible way to process and calculate votes. This is important to us Americans as we need instant answers. When there is a widely accepted error rate of .5% it is important that those races that are close are scrutinized. This is where the tussle comes. The tension arises in coordinating the integrity of the electoral process and the right to participate in the democracy with our vote. Traditionally the dividing lines fall with the Republicans arguing for the integrity and Democrats arguing for the sanctity of the franchise to vote. It conveniently coincides with the general idea that when more people vote Democrats do better, when fewer people vote Republicans do better. This tension manifests itself on voter intent. That is what we all witnessed down in Florida in 2000. Eyes bulging to examine chads to determine voter intent. On optical scanner it is a little easier to make that determination.

It appears the state of Minnesota has some fairly standard rules for determining voter intent on optical scan ballots. The biggest question that will face scrutiny will be the decision at the local level whether to do a machine recount or a hand recount.

8235.1000 ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEMS.
In precincts in an election jurisdiction where an electronic voting system is used, the recount official shall determine if the ballots are to be recounted on the electronic voting system or manually

What we are likely to see is pressure at the Republican sections of the state to perform machine recounts and pressure at the Democratic sections of the state to perform hand recounts. This is not just a matter of what suits the candidates interest it goes to the philosophy of voting mentioned above.





http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/how-does-a-minnesota-recount-work


What to remember going forward. This is going to be messy. Want clean and neat. Dictatorships are clean and efficient, Democracies are messy. These are good people doing the best that they can. If you don't like what is happening. Get involved.