This is why so many care so much to get this man elected

This is a leader not a politician.




"Here in America our Destiny is not written for us it is written by us".

Barack Obama

Point and Counterpoint

"I can see Russia from my house"
----Tina Fey playing Sarah Palin.



But I haven't!

Working the board

I watch the polls admittedly way too much. I try not to post on them too much. CNN is reporting that the debate has had no effect on polling. My gut is telling me something different. We may not be seeing large jumps in the polling numbers. There is a consensus growing that is showing Obama up by at least 6 and hitting 51 % in a number of polls.

In addition and more importantly we are seeing these gains being consolidated in the state polling which, as we all learned in 2000 if we weren't aware of before, is what matters.



Obama
McCain O M
Diageo/Hotline 47 41 +6
Gallup 49 43 +6
Rasmussen Reports 51 45 +6
Research 2000/dKos 51 41 +10

Average: 49.50 42.50 +7

What I have been watching for is Pennsylvania to firm up and it seems to have done that over the past few days. If / once Obama can lock PA in place the chess board is definitely in his favor . He is set to go on offense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html


FOX News/Rasmussen
50 42
Obama +8
Morning Call
49 42
Obama +7
SurveyUSA
50 44
Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R)
47 46
Obama +1
CNN/Time
53 44
Obama +9
National Journal/FD
43 41
Obama +2

Once PA is locked in Obama is sitting on 249 Electoral votes needing to pick up just 21 to win. This scenario has both MN and WI currently as toss ups. WI has Obama up by 3.8 which is a higher margin than Kerry or Gore won it by. I am pretty confident that with the next release of the polling data for WI we will see their Electoral votes being placed in the Obama column. As the two most current polls have him up by 6 and 7 respectively. This will bring Obama to 259.

Eleven to go.

MN should be easier than it is right now. He is currently polling at about 2.8 to the good side. This is right in the middle of where Kerry and Gore ended up. These polls are a touch dated so we could see a big swing in the next release and it would not be a surprise. Minnesota is surprising me a little. I do not expect it to remain this close. It may be that Minnesota really likes their mavericks after all this is the state that brought us Jessy the Body as the Governor. However, if MN does fall in line we are at 269 Electoral votes.

1 Electoral vote to go.

If we are indeed at this stage Obama has several areas to hunt that extra EV that he needs and McCain has to defend. New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri are the smallest. Then we look at Virginia and North Carolina were Obama is coming on strong and actually currently leading in Virginia. These are very traditional red states that McCain should not have to defend. Last but not least we have the complete game changers. Ohio which is down to a 1 point lead for McCain and Florida which is down to .3 lead for McCain. What is expected to be a long night on Nov. 4 may over very early if either one of these states come in for Obama.

Considering McCain has to defend all this territory before he can even consider going on the offense to pick up the necessary 270 he is in a tight spot. Remember McCain is limited to matching funds of 84 mil. Obama has unlimited spending to attack the McCain territory. See the post below.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/search?q=84

Now that we are six weeks out, we past the holidays, school is back in session, and the debates are upon us let's examine where we are. McCain is confined to the 84 million dollars between now and Nov. 4. Obama is free to spend all the
money he sees fit in any manner he sees fit. This coincides with an announced increased in ad buying by the Obama campaign by something like 20%

So even though the polls may only be showing a 6 - 7 point lead the actual numbers are much worse for McCain and may well explain the hysterics his campaign are currently in.

Supreme Ignorance

Updated:

The actual question is name any other cases you disagree with. Okay Bush v. Gore. Don't agree with their equal protection clause cited to shut down a state run election.


Marbury Vs. Madison
Plessy Vs. Ferguson
Brown Vs. the Board of Education
Brown Vs. the Board of Education II
Bush V. Gore

What am I talking about the first five Supreme Court Cases that came to my mind after reading the statement below.

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major
court cases. There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there
was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0908/In_reintroduction_Palin_to_do_more_interviews_and_tell_her_story.html

John McCain and the Republican party ask us to possibly trust this lady to appoint the next three Supreme Court justices. McCain is becoming more and more of a farce as each day goes by.

Changing colors

Paraphrasing Chris Mathews....


John McCain is a Maverick he tried to be a leader this week, he failed.

This is regarding the lack of republican support in the house for the bailout bill.

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

Updated: After writing this post I came across a detailed Gallup poll that is interesting and hits the same points below but with specific polling numbers.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110779/Debate-Watchers-Give-Obama-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx

We have had a few days to let the debate sink in watch football and get back to work and school. How did the debate go?

This is always an interesting question. The initial reports immediately after the debate by almost every pundit was the same. John McCain won on points by being aggressive on the foreign policy portion and kept the topic on earmarks during the economic crisis portion. All were fairly approving of Obama stating that he held his own. Even going as far as to say he may have won a few stylistic points.

Then the instant polls came and the pundits were once again wrong! As the posts below show. What appeared to be the main gist of the voter reviews are that Obama was steady, presidential, compassionate, talking to them, tough. McCain was strong, mean, condescending, contemptuous.

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/initial-poll.html

The next thing we have to watch for is how does this all play out over the following news cycles. There is good news and bad news for Obama in this area. The good news is really good. It appears the narrative has taken hold that Obama won, was more Presidential, people are more comfortable with him and he has increased his standing in the area of foreign policy. This is actually great news especially if one believes in the 1980 model I keep spouting off about. http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

An example of how a narrative can build and effect those who don't actually pay that much attention to the debate or for those who saw the debate but were still able to have their opinions affected is the most recent Diageo/Hotline poll on the question of How would you rate the job by McCain - OBama.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker092908data.pdf

Obama's results were the same for both Sat and Sun.
Sat 67 % Good/Excellent 30 % Fair/Poor.

McCAin's results have dropped from Sat to Sun fairly largely.

Sat 60 % Good/Excellent 37 % Fair/Poor
Sun 53 % Good/Excellent 44 % Fair/Poor

The narrative has taken hold and the reality in American politics is all too often that the winning narrative is the winning reality.

The only downside for OBama is the debate was on a Friday night which probably depressed viewership somewhat. Secondly since it was on a Friday night the news cycle was interrupted by the weekend. Thirdly the economic bailout plan is going to eat into this story.

The net result I believe will be a continued climb in polling for Obama. However, it may be moderated by the other news stories happening. The bottom line McCain needed to disqualify Obama as a serious contender for the job and he failed. McCain has based his campaign not on the fact the he is the better person for the job but that he is the only person for the job. This was the reason for such dismissiveness at the debate and the lack of eye contact. He is acting out his belief and his message that Obama does not deserve to be on the same stage as him. This message backfired and the people are now even more comfortable with the possibility of Obama being in the White House. Another example of this can be seen in the ad the McCain released immediately after the debate. A clip of the times that Obama was agreeing with McCain followed by the tag line NOT READY TO LEAD. Of course we know politics does not have to follow logic but what is this ad saying. Obama agrees with me so no way can we trust him?

Where do we go from here. The McCain campaign has another chance to change the storyline for a few days with the Palin debate. Expectations are amazingly low and she should be able to walk over them. It has been suggested that Biden simply shut and let her talk. I find it hard to believe that she is as bad as the Couric interviews suggest. We'll have to watch and see.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong

Jed from Jed Report via Huffington Post.





This guy is good. I mean both Jed and Obama.

Very effective and may very well be the moment that is crystallized from this debate. Regardless of McCain's condiscension here is a moment of Obama lecturing McCain on an area that is supposed to be McCains's strength.

Initial Poll

First polls re: who won.


Obama 52%
McCain 38%


Not the reaction McCain needs.

CBS Poll

40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw.

Gergen: I can't emphasize enough how important these numbers are.

Could this be the final straw the breaks the camels back.

Joe Biden

In refuting John McCains claims of experience. Joe just stated that he has been at all the places John had mentioned. "And just because he's been there doesn't mean he's right".

Don't hold your breath

This is admittedly shallow in light of the actual debate. Interesting none the less. At the completion of Wolf Blitzer interviewing VP nominee Joe Biden, Wolf stated that they had invited Sarah Palin and would hope to get soon. Anderson Cooper sighed "Don't hold your breath".

Joe Biden is on MSNBC right now. Good move to get Joe out there on every network possible. First he is good. He is delivering the message. Then it forces every network to explain that they in fact have invited Palin and the campaign has refused.