The simple take on NY-23. Carpetbaggers. People do not like others coming from outside and tell them how to do things. It was bad enough that Hoffman was an outsider to begin with. However, when National outsiders from Palin to Pawlenty start second guessing them that was enough. In order for the Democrat to recieve 50% of vote in this district means an awful lot of people who consider themselves to be Republicans decided to vote for the democrat to send a message to the outsiders. Think about it, they very easily could have decided to go ahead and vote for the Republican.
This is a lesson that should be learned by progressives, conservatives, dems and repubs alike.
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