Crunching the numbers

There has been quite a bit of discussion about whether or not President Obama is the most "polarizing" president in along time. A Pew poll reported the divide between Democrats and Republicans on President Obama's job was the widest at this juncture of a Presidency.

The right attempted to grab ahold of this and pump it up. It has been knocked down thoroughly and consistently by those who live out side of the Fox New - Limbauch fantasy world. Chuck Todd of NBC quickly explained that one of the biggest reasons this is happening is that moderates are abandoning the republican party leaving it full of the hard core believers. Additionaly, historically Republicans have been less likely to approve of a Democratic President than Democrats are of approving of a Republican President. Thirdly, over the last 30 years the polarizing of American partisanship has continually increased from President to President.

When all is left is the hardcore believers they wouldn't even approve of President Obama if he successfully freed an American hostage held by pirates, killing 3 of the pirates and arresting the 4th. Hmmm.


So what we are left with is Democrats who have a highly favorable rating of the President, Independants who have a favorable rating in the high 50s - to 60%, and the republicans who are topping out at about 25 - 30%. That still leaves one in four republicans approving of the Presidents job.

My question, what about those moderates that are leaving the Republican party.
The most logical assumption is that they are going to reclassify themselves as Independant. It is doubtful they are jumping all the way over to Democrat. Let's assume that they are moving over one column to Ind. My assumption is that at least half if not more still might not approve of the job of President Obama, they simply do not consider themselves republican currently.

This whole exercise come from the thought that since the loss of moderae republicans is weighing the republicans down to a higher disapproval rating of the President's job approval. It is also proabable that the newly added ex-republicans who are self classify as Indapendants probably are also weighing down the Independant approval rating of the President. If you took out those additional new Independants the approval rating for that group would rise.