First two focus groups.
CNN Obama 12 - 10
MSNBC Obama 60 - 40
CBS Obama 39 - 27 updated to 40 - 26
CNN poll Obama 54 - 30
Media Curve
Independants Obama 52 - 34
More interesting Dems Obama Won 84%
Repubs McCain Won only 68%
Did John King of CNN just say the election is over?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Just won the election
Dare I say that Obama just won the election on the first foreign affairs question of this debate.
First Impression
At the half way mark I am going to go out on a limb and say McCain did not win. Definately nothing to change the game.
Thoughts going into the debate
John McCain has been making a big deal all summer about Obama not agreeing to his townhall requests. Now their is already pressure for McCain to provide a game changer and he has pre-anounced he is going to be going negative.
Even though this is not a debate on Foreign Policy which is supposed to be his home turf the expectations seem to be raising by the minute for McCain. Also it is suggested that Obama is not a great debater. Maybe true. However, he did win the Democratic primary which included quite a few debates. Secondly, it is official he pretty handily won the first debate. Thirdly, I have been in a room with him before just briefly and he is better in close quarters that most give him credit for. He may not be Bill Clinton working a room, but he is genuine and comforting which in light of the current economic crisis will a big positive.
Then on an odd note. I remember back to more than a year ago watching Chris Mathews when he brought up an interesting point. He was interested in the possible visuals of a McCain - Obama debate physically seeing them interact on the stage. He surmised that Obama's stature, grace and youthfulness would be a very strong asset for him. I don't know what to make of that. It will be something I am looking to.
See you after the debate.
Even though this is not a debate on Foreign Policy which is supposed to be his home turf the expectations seem to be raising by the minute for McCain. Also it is suggested that Obama is not a great debater. Maybe true. However, he did win the Democratic primary which included quite a few debates. Secondly, it is official he pretty handily won the first debate. Thirdly, I have been in a room with him before just briefly and he is better in close quarters that most give him credit for. He may not be Bill Clinton working a room, but he is genuine and comforting which in light of the current economic crisis will a big positive.
Then on an odd note. I remember back to more than a year ago watching Chris Mathews when he brought up an interesting point. He was interested in the possible visuals of a McCain - Obama debate physically seeing them interact on the stage. He surmised that Obama's stature, grace and youthfulness would be a very strong asset for him. I don't know what to make of that. It will be something I am looking to.
See you after the debate.
What is different this time around?
I have been rattling an idea for a post around in my head for about a week now. I have been trying to figure out what was different now than 4 and 8 years ago. I sensed the McCain campaign was very frustrated by the fact they were playing the just like Bush had done in 2000 and 2004 but it wasn't working. Some of the thoughts I would contemplate were the seariousness of the times. Although in 2004 the Iraq war was on the center of our minds and still we (as a country) fell for the swift boating of an American war hero. Is it possible that the country is tired of it? How about the press are they handling it differently? I am not sure. Has the Obama camp been more effective in handling this type of politics?
I really hadn't decided on a reason but I was pretty certain something was different time around. The previous mo was the Bush camp or surrogate would throw someting out. The media would basically report the charge, not the validity of the charge. The cable news outlets would repeat it adinfinitum and it would seep into the American conscience.
It doesn't appear to be working so well for McCain.
I have come across a couple of post that attempts to dissect this question.
This piece is running over at the New York mag.
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/51016/index1.html
The gist of his argument is something I felt intuitively. The Sarah Palin picked was viewed sceptically enough on its own. When it was combined with the "suspension" it reinforced voters that yes in fact the pick was all about politically gimmickry. Once they were convinced Palin was a political gimmick they were certain the "suspension" nothing more than a political gimmick.
This combination truly cuts the "Country First" theme they had been hammering home.
Greg Sargent has a stab at it over at TPM.com
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/why_did_mccain_lose_his_maveri.php
I really hadn't decided on a reason but I was pretty certain something was different time around. The previous mo was the Bush camp or surrogate would throw someting out. The media would basically report the charge, not the validity of the charge. The cable news outlets would repeat it adinfinitum and it would seep into the American conscience.
It doesn't appear to be working so well for McCain.
I have come across a couple of post that attempts to dissect this question.
This piece is running over at the New York mag.
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/51016/index1.html
The gist of his argument is something I felt intuitively. The Sarah Palin picked was viewed sceptically enough on its own. When it was combined with the "suspension" it reinforced voters that yes in fact the pick was all about politically gimmickry. Once they were convinced Palin was a political gimmick they were certain the "suspension" nothing more than a political gimmick.
This combination truly cuts the "Country First" theme they had been hammering home.
Greg Sargent has a stab at it over at TPM.com
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/why_did_mccain_lose_his_maveri.php
Ground Offensive
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html
This is a great article. It lifts the sheet up and gives a little look into what is happening. It might not get much coverage and it is not nearly as sexy as a big ad campaign. One not noted which is very important. This field organization is forming a community of people who care about the country, the childrens, their friends, their neighbors and their communities. People are dedicating big parts of their lives in this and they are indeed heavily invested in this campaign. Some times it is long tedious work and some times the payoff is much delayed. But everyone will tell that it is worth when we wake up on Nov. 5th and have changed the world.
Obama's Missouri plan also mirrors his national strategy, McCaskill says. "It's a metaphor for the way Obama sees his job, governing from the bottom up," she says. Renting Main Street storefronts in small-town Missouri and staffing them with paid workers is a way of proving that he can reach out to all walks of
American life
This is a great article. It lifts the sheet up and gives a little look into what is happening. It might not get much coverage and it is not nearly as sexy as a big ad campaign. One not noted which is very important. This field organization is forming a community of people who care about the country, the childrens, their friends, their neighbors and their communities. People are dedicating big parts of their lives in this and they are indeed heavily invested in this campaign. Some times it is long tedious work and some times the payoff is much delayed. But everyone will tell that it is worth when we wake up on Nov. 5th and have changed the world.
Monday, October 6, 2008
"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
A refresher course on the Keathing 5
Yeah but is it true? Check out what CNN had to say.
Yeah but is it true? Check out what CNN had to say.
Something we all can be thankful for
I was recently challenged to say something nice about John McCain.
That is not hard to do. It has been repeated often by many people Democrats, Independants, and Republican.. We all appreciate the service John McCain has provided for this country. We anguish at thought of the experience he endured as a POW. While I am at it, it would be inappropriate not to thank the othe 724 POW's of the Vietnam war, the 7,140 POW's of the Korean war, 130,000 POW's of WWII of which my wife's uncle was one, and the 4,120 POW's of WWI.
As of 2004 we had 32,550 living POW's and we appreciate each and everyone of them. This is something we all can agree on regardless of our political philosophy. We can not know the experience they endured and we are thankful to all 142,246 POW's and their families.
That is not hard to do. It has been repeated often by many people Democrats, Independants, and Republican.. We all appreciate the service John McCain has provided for this country. We anguish at thought of the experience he endured as a POW. While I am at it, it would be inappropriate not to thank the othe 724 POW's of the Vietnam war, the 7,140 POW's of the Korean war, 130,000 POW's of WWII of which my wife's uncle was one, and the 4,120 POW's of WWI.
As of 2004 we had 32,550 living POW's and we appreciate each and everyone of them. This is something we all can agree on regardless of our political philosophy. We can not know the experience they endured and we are thankful to all 142,246 POW's and their families.
Poor John
Unfortunately for John issues keep getting in the way of his campaign. What do you think people will be talking about tomorrow? Sarah Palin's attempt to bring racism back into the election or the current economic and market conditions.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Let the offensive begin
We have already established that McCain is in a corner and is coming out swinging with everything he can muster.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/ok-we-have-established-game-is-getting.html
He has had Palin out this weekend talking about "palling around with terrorist". I tend to think her credibility is sufficiently tarnised. Which will diminish the effectiveness of the attacks from her. Make no mistake though, the Obama campaign knew this was coming the only question really was when. Recent polling has determined the time is now.
The Obama camp is not waiting to react defensively. They have set up
the following website to bring to attention McCain's association with Charles Keating. Keatingeconomics.com They have authorized their surrogates to refer the Keating 5 in response to any Ayers attacks.
http://keatingeconomics.com/
The Obama camp will be releasing on the above website a 13 minute web video relating John McCain's association with Charles Keating noon eastern on Monday, October 6. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
My gut reaction right now is Obama will be able to keep the attack disciplined and is expecting McCain to overreach and overreact.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/we-knew-what-to-expect-next-from-mccain.html
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/ok-we-have-established-game-is-getting.html
He has had Palin out this weekend talking about "palling around with terrorist". I tend to think her credibility is sufficiently tarnised. Which will diminish the effectiveness of the attacks from her. Make no mistake though, the Obama campaign knew this was coming the only question really was when. Recent polling has determined the time is now.
The Obama camp is not waiting to react defensively. They have set up
the following website to bring to attention McCain's association with Charles Keating. Keatingeconomics.com They have authorized their surrogates to refer the Keating 5 in response to any Ayers attacks.
http://keatingeconomics.com/
The Obama camp will be releasing on the above website a 13 minute web video relating John McCain's association with Charles Keating noon eastern on Monday, October 6. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
My gut reaction right now is Obama will be able to keep the attack disciplined and is expecting McCain to overreach and overreact.
http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/10/we-knew-what-to-expect-next-from-mccain.html
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