Does any one else feel bad for her?

Am I the only that is starting to feel bad for Sarah Palin. Not in a manner that excuses her but just bad. The three snippets for the Couric interview are just amazingly horrible. I honestly do not think I am exaggerating. It feels like she has been asked to totally scrub her own thought process and memorize everything John McCain stands for , which by the way John is not even forced to do.

One just feels her searching for what talking point to plug into what questions. It also feels like she is scared to death that she might mess up. It is also very apparent that she has been able to get away with using her gee ain't that great folksy charm to get herself out trouble before. Regardless she does not instill a sense of confidence and definitely leads one to question John McCains judgement all that much more. The situation she is in is a result that McCain tapped someone with no credible standing and therefore has no room for error and she appears to be buckling under the immense pressure.





When I start feeling too bad for her I just think back to the one appearence she did deliver well. The Republican National Convention. Everything seems right and I score one for the community organizers out in the world.

What to make of McCain's gamble?

Two things stick out. Well maybe three

1) Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama up 9 point in their poll released today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667_pf.html

2) See my previous post regarding the possibility of this race getting out of control posted last saturday....

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

The McCain campaign is aware that this could get out of control at any moment,
over any reason. Obama's foreign trip was one example and the McCain camp
handled it effectively if not tastlessly. The Democratic Convention was another
spot where it could have gotten out of hand and thus the wild card pick of
Palin. We are now looking at the current financial crisis. This crisis is
undoubtley benefitting the Obama camp and rightfully so. The question remains is
this where the contest gets out of control. We will have to wait and see.

Considering how a majority of Americans are skeptical of John McCains's reasoning for picking Sarah Palin his current gamble is going to be viewed through this same skeptical prism.

We already have the first signs as such via SUSA snap poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02

Results summarized.

50 % hold debate
36 % hold debate focus on economy
10 % suspend debate.

An irony of this is that he may have had a better chance on pulling this stunt if he hadn't already ruined his reputation with the Palin pick.

Gut feeling

Wrote this Sept 17 with an update this morning.

The polls are showing a general slide back toward Obama. In retrospect this was to be expected. Regardless how many times we told ourselves not to get too excited over the polls we tend to be creatures of habit I guess. We were over enthusiastic when Obama took a 7 point lead with his convention bump. Then there was a collective depression when the lead evaporated with McCain's bump.

Now that McCain's bump is receding and we find ourselves pretty much where we were before the VP picks and the conventions. Which we pretty much knew intellectually even if we didn't trust it emotionally, if that makes sense.

It is clear as the bumps work their way out of the polls Obama has been gaining a little momentum. We will have to again watch over the next week to see how this shakes out.
This is were my gut feeling comes into play. My gut tells me that Palin has peaked and we will have to see where she lands as a VP candidate. As she slides back into the back ground McCain will once again become the focus. This is coinciding with the loss of his bump. Coincidental or cause and effect? I am postulating (I like to use big words when I can) that it is a little bit of both.


Updated with some info from Kos in his post just out

The trendline is indisputable (it was just picked
up by CBS). And just as Palin's initial popularity bolstered McCain, her
sudden faltering is now bringing him back
down to earth. You might have even noticed that the latest round of McCain
ads don't even feature her or refer to "McCain/Palin". It's back to just
"McCain". She was starting to drag him down.

Interestingly I suspect that we will see a continued slide of McCain - Palin for a few reasons.
This weeks financial crisis cuts McCain in two directions. First was his huge blunder "the fundamentals of this economy are strong". No explanation needed I think. Second there is a long record of the McCain being the true conservative that he is has been against regulation. It will play very simply that this crisis was a result of lax or no regulation over the financial system. This is one area where there is no question that McCain is 100% more of the same as Bush. So as a result we have McCain who doesn't get, helped caused it, and is more of it when it comes to the financial world.

Updated 09/22 with post from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/did-economic-crisis-burst_n_128185.html

counting from last Monday, the same Palin search on Nexis turns up 1,866 hits, a
decrease of just under 31 percent.

The other side of this is this may put Palin in focus in a more subtle way. This is the first crisis or test since she was named VP nominee. It comes at a time when people are refining and developing their opinions about her from a more reasoned approach. If they in fact decide she is not qualified to handle the economy this bail out and crisis will remind people she could have a very real impact on their lives. I am not certain that realization will settle well.

So back to my gut. Look for the polls to continue to shift toward Obama until the debates. Then it will be a whole new ball game once again.