Debate Preview take III

I have already suggested that this debate would be viewed by fewer than the last and possibly even the first Friday night debate.

I think there are fewer people who are persuadable on this debate. The narrative has already been set. Most people will take this set narrative into watching the debate. Mostly that Obama is calm, cool, steady, intelligent and in touch with people. McCain is uncomfortable with people, Obama, and himself, he is negative, dismissive.

McCain has boxed himself in regarding the Ayers associations et al. If he ignores the issue he is going to get called out on it. If he brings up he has a couple of problems. First people that are not interested in it, simply are not interested in it and will be put off by it. Secondly, If he brings it up it gives Obama a national audience to debunk the whole thing.

The problem is that if Obama is given 2 - 5 minutes to explain it the whole story unravels. This story works much more negatively as innuendo, just under the surface. What does he have to hide, who / what is he. If this is discussed above board the clandestine nature is peeled away. Notice how they rolled this line of attack out. We first had a uniformed officer mention his middle name Hussein after it had been off the table for months for McCain. Then we had Palin alluding to paling around with terrorist. OOOOO Hussein - terrorist very scary kind of sounds evil. Oh wait some of Obama's donations may have been funneled in by unkown people over seas. One puts all the little pieces of innuendo together and you can end up with voters like we have seen over the past couple of weeks at the McCain - Palin mobs I mean rallies.

McCain doesn't want any real sun light put on this so he doesn't really want to spend much time on it at the debate. But if he doesn't address he is going to be called a hypocrite and ridiculed. If I remember correctly Bush never had to touch the Swiftboating issues in his debates with Kerry.

Possibly more interesting is the fact that they will be sitting relatively close to each other in tonight's format. I recall a post I read a few weeks back about this type of setting. The point of the story is that the McCain camp had hired someone for debate prep who had reviewed all of McCain's debates of late and had one major piece of advice for him, stand up. His assessment was that McCain was uncomfortable in a sitting side by side situation and allowed for people to get the edge on him. I have looked for the article but haven't been able to find it back, I'll keep looking.

The fact the Dow dropped another 700 points today makes this discussion seem a little surreal to the people tuning in to see what either of these guys will do to right the ship.

I also have a feeling that we will see Obama be fairly aggressive early in the debate. This might seem odd considering that everything is currently going in his favor. However, I think it has been Obama's game plan for the last two debates to get under McCain's skin early. We all know that McCain doesn't like or respect Obama and doesn't feel he has earned the level of respect that John McCain has earned. McCain can't stand to be questioned or criticized by a lesser person than himself.(wonder if that is the result of a military upbringing and career?) So expect Obama to be critical upfront but of course with a smile. He has become pretty good at this tactic of pointing out the criticism without coming across too harsh.

What to make of McCain's gamble?

Two things stick out. Well maybe three

1) Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama up 9 point in their poll released today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667_pf.html

2) See my previous post regarding the possibility of this race getting out of control posted last saturday....

http://mysteryj.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-control.html

The McCain campaign is aware that this could get out of control at any moment,
over any reason. Obama's foreign trip was one example and the McCain camp
handled it effectively if not tastlessly. The Democratic Convention was another
spot where it could have gotten out of hand and thus the wild card pick of
Palin. We are now looking at the current financial crisis. This crisis is
undoubtley benefitting the Obama camp and rightfully so. The question remains is
this where the contest gets out of control. We will have to wait and see.

Considering how a majority of Americans are skeptical of John McCains's reasoning for picking Sarah Palin his current gamble is going to be viewed through this same skeptical prism.

We already have the first signs as such via SUSA snap poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02

Results summarized.

50 % hold debate
36 % hold debate focus on economy
10 % suspend debate.

An irony of this is that he may have had a better chance on pulling this stunt if he hadn't already ruined his reputation with the Palin pick.

Obama endorses Darcy Burner

No surprises here. Interesting timing coming on the heels of the Seattle Times endorsement. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008190671_obamaed21.html Quick note. My first involvement in any campaign was when Dave Ross ran against Reichert back in 2004. My involvement was limited. I was inspired to participate for many of the reasons that brought me to Obama. Dave has a farily liberal philsophy, but he is not partisan and is able to approach subjects with an open mind. Any way this should be a day of good news for Burner.

http://www.darcyburner.com/

The races I intend to watch the closest as mentioned before are the following.

Pres. - Missouri
Gov - Missouri - Washington
Cong - Missouri 9th - Washington 8th

Gut feeling

Wrote this Sept 17 with an update this morning.

The polls are showing a general slide back toward Obama. In retrospect this was to be expected. Regardless how many times we told ourselves not to get too excited over the polls we tend to be creatures of habit I guess. We were over enthusiastic when Obama took a 7 point lead with his convention bump. Then there was a collective depression when the lead evaporated with McCain's bump.

Now that McCain's bump is receding and we find ourselves pretty much where we were before the VP picks and the conventions. Which we pretty much knew intellectually even if we didn't trust it emotionally, if that makes sense.

It is clear as the bumps work their way out of the polls Obama has been gaining a little momentum. We will have to again watch over the next week to see how this shakes out.
This is were my gut feeling comes into play. My gut tells me that Palin has peaked and we will have to see where she lands as a VP candidate. As she slides back into the back ground McCain will once again become the focus. This is coinciding with the loss of his bump. Coincidental or cause and effect? I am postulating (I like to use big words when I can) that it is a little bit of both.


Updated with some info from Kos in his post just out

The trendline is indisputable (it was just picked
up by CBS). And just as Palin's initial popularity bolstered McCain, her
sudden faltering is now bringing him back
down to earth. You might have even noticed that the latest round of McCain
ads don't even feature her or refer to "McCain/Palin". It's back to just
"McCain". She was starting to drag him down.

Interestingly I suspect that we will see a continued slide of McCain - Palin for a few reasons.
This weeks financial crisis cuts McCain in two directions. First was his huge blunder "the fundamentals of this economy are strong". No explanation needed I think. Second there is a long record of the McCain being the true conservative that he is has been against regulation. It will play very simply that this crisis was a result of lax or no regulation over the financial system. This is one area where there is no question that McCain is 100% more of the same as Bush. So as a result we have McCain who doesn't get, helped caused it, and is more of it when it comes to the financial world.

Updated 09/22 with post from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/did-economic-crisis-burst_n_128185.html

counting from last Monday, the same Palin search on Nexis turns up 1,866 hits, a
decrease of just under 31 percent.

The other side of this is this may put Palin in focus in a more subtle way. This is the first crisis or test since she was named VP nominee. It comes at a time when people are refining and developing their opinions about her from a more reasoned approach. If they in fact decide she is not qualified to handle the economy this bail out and crisis will remind people she could have a very real impact on their lives. I am not certain that realization will settle well.

So back to my gut. Look for the polls to continue to shift toward Obama until the debates. Then it will be a whole new ball game once again.